Economic

Inflation in numbers and at the cash register: official statistics versus real food prices

In public discourse, inflation often appears as an objective indicator of the state of the economy, expressed as a percentage. This view prevails in State Statistics Service reports, National Bank forecasts, and government presentations. However, in real life, when Ukrainians pass by the checkout counter in a supermarket every time, they are not so much buying as they are paying for survival. This is not an exaggeration: the buyer learned a long time ago without reports – he has to pay more and more for food, and buy less and less. And although the official statistics are reassuring and presented with extreme care, a check from a supermarket is a very telling document, because it shows the true cost of living in Ukraine in 2025.

June inflation: decrease on paper, pressure in wallets

According to the July Macroeconomic and Monetary Survey of the National Bank of Ukraine, annual consumer inflation rose to 15.9% in May, exceeding the regulator’s expectations due to a higher-than-expected increase in raw food prices. Although inflation slowed slightly to 14.3% in June, actual figures once again exceeded forecasts. The NBU explains this mainly as a consequence of the weather factor: due to spring frosts, the supply of fresh agricultural products decreased, which caused an increase in the prices of raw food products in recent months.

In a year, the prices of products have jumped so much that even the simplest menu for the family has become a luxury. Eggs increased in price the most – by almost 60%, followed by fruits: plus 51.7%. Oil went up in price by a third, butter by almost 30%. Prices for meat and meat products increased by 22.9%, bread by 21.9%, milk by 20.9%. Even vegetables, which fell somewhat in price in June, still cost a quarter more than a year ago. And this despite the fact that vegetables are now a seasonal product.

The fact is that against the background of these jumps, core inflation, which does not take into account fluctuations in food and energy prices, in June was lower than the NBU’s forecast — 12.1%. But this figure is more for bankers than for the consumer. Because it is products that make up the lion’s share of Ukrainians’ daily expenses, and it is in this segment that the blow is the most painful.

Especially since prices continue to creep up. Over the last month, food has grown by another 1.4%. The most noticeable is fruit: plus 13.5% in June alone. At the same time, everything that is even tangentially related to protein and calories is becoming more expensive: meat, fish, lard, bread, butter, fermented milk products, even soft drinks. The only “consolation” of Ukrainians remains lard, which added only 7.4% in value, but costs almost the same as meat. Prices for lard and meat in Ukraine in July 2025 fluctuate, but in general, home-made lard costs UAH 170-250 per kilogram.

At the same time, in June, the average price of a pork neck exceeded UAH 330 per kilogram, which is 30% more than in the same period last year. Beef increased in price by 22% over the year — it was sold at an average price of UAH 336/kg. At the beginning of July, the price of meat increased even more: beef was already offered at UAH 350/kg. Pork skewers cost an average of UAH 260/kg, compared to UAH 254 in June. The price of chicken also increased. As of the beginning of July, fillets were sold at UAH 224/kg, chicken thighs at UAH 151.50/kg (in June it was about UAH 139/kg), and carcasses at UAH 120/kg. Legs also rose in price: from UAH 90.39/kg in June to UAH 94.50/kg in July.

An alarming signal is that the prices are not for delicacies, but for basic necessities. Those from which borscht, porridge, and sandwiches are prepared. And it is these goods that show a rise in prices that outstrips inflation by many times. The so-called “borscht index”, although it decreased by 12% in June, increased by 27% year-on-year to 196 hryvnias. That is, in a year, even a simple dish made of beets and cabbage reached the level of a restaurant. At the same time, it is the borscht set and the meat and dairy group that is the basic basket for most Ukrainian families.

The situation is also complicated by the real impoverishment of the population. According to Info Sapiens, in May 19.2% of respondents admitted that they had to save on food. In June, this figure increased to 25.2%. That is, every fourth Ukrainian does not just think that it is expensive, but is physically malnourished. The Center for Economic Strategy adds that in certain periods of the war this figure reached 30%.

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In fact, we have a dead end: products are more expensive, people are poorer, the state is limited in its intervention, and the economy is slowing down. After all, there is another factor – war. Shelling throughout the country destroys not only warehouses or elevators, but also transport chains, farms, machinery, basic infrastructure of the agricultural sector.

The All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers is already warning of another 20% increase in the price of bread by the end of 2025. And the thing is not only about flour, yeast or fat – electricity, taxes, logistics, wages of employees (especially at enterprises with the right of reservation) – all this is embedded in a new, already unsustainable cost.

Three main enemies of the Ukrainian wallet

Ukrainian inflation has become a chronic pain in every trip to the supermarket, which arises for three main reasons: the vagaries of the weather, strict state regulation and, not surprisingly, the growing poverty of consumers themselves.

Spring frosts, prolonged coolness and rains at inappropriate times disrupted the agricultural rhythm. The harvest started late, harvests in many regions, and especially in Sumy Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, and Rivne Oblast, turned out to be lower than expected. Stone fruits, apples, cabbage and carrots fell under the price rink not because of excitement, but because of a lack.

American experts (USDA) have already warned: the wheat harvest in Ukraine may be the worst in 13 years and will amount to only 17.9 million tons. And if the bread basket shrinks, everything becomes more expensive: from bread to pasta. We will reap the price effect of weak agricultural seasonality by the end of the year.

The second reason, although invisible to the average citizen, is a rather powerful factor. The state independently adjusts prices for goods and services. For example, the price of alcohol and tobacco rose in May not because demand increased, but because of tax changes and the fight against the “shadow”. It got a little easier in June, purely because of the comparison effect: a year ago, exactly at this time, there was a sharp increase in electricity tariffs. Currently, the tariff has not changed (4.32 hryvnias/kWh), but you should not entertain illusions about stability.

The situation is similar with fuel prices. Gasoline and diesel do not grow by themselves, because they are pulled up by world oil. And while OPEC does not plan to reduce prices, the Ukrainian logistics chain will continue to increase in price, which again affects the cost of any product.

And finally, the third most painful reason concerns the level of poverty in society. All this would be less tragic if incomes were growing. But they either stand or fall. And this means that with each new hryvnia in the price list, people’s purchasing power falls even deeper. In May, 19.2% of Ukrainians said they were forced to save on food. In June, 25.2% of them were. We are returning to the poverty levels of 2022, when the fighting was fiercest. Our country is so eager to join the EU, but so far we have managed to achieve EU-level prices. So the next time you pick up an apple for 79 hryvnias or look at a cabbage for 28 hryvnias, remember that it is not only the war, and not only the “global economy” that is to blame. Frozen crops, government tax policies, global fuel markets and our gradual impoverishment came into play.

The National Bank and the government seem to prefer to look at the economy through rose-colored glasses. In the forecasts, everything looks good: by the end of 2025, inflation will allegedly slide to 9.5%, and in the following years it will decrease even more – to 5.3% in 2028. Experts are betting on seasonal harvests, more stable energy, cheaper oil on world markets and softer actions of the National Bank in terms of monetary policy.

At the same time, the government talks about the intentions of the reforms: helping small businesses, clearing the way for the domestic producer, speeding up the movement towards the European market. Everything seems logical, but the question “will it all withstand the impact of reality?” simply hangs in the air. After all, there is the cost of imports, a factor that is too often ignored. The hryvnia is sinking to the euro, and with each such step, hopes for cheap vegetables from Europe are melting along with the purchasing power of Ukrainians.

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And the main players who can easily knock all these forecasts off the board are war and weather. One missile strike can destroy not only the granary, but also plans for the year. One night of frost and the prices of common fruit will skyrocket again. The spring of this year clearly showed this: the agricultural season was delayed, machinery in some regions was idle, warehouses were destroyed, and logistics was left entirely to chance.

So in such a situation, the government’s promises about stabilization start to sound like a poorly directed TV series: the plot is predictable, the characters are familiar, but the reality is becoming increasingly unpredictable.

How Ukrainians adapt to survive

While officials are weighing macro indicators, ordinary Ukrainians have long since recalculated their own inflation through a cashier’s check. And along with this, the very approach to consumption is changing. People increasingly buy not what they want, but what they can afford. Borscht turned from a national symbol into a luxury item, and chicken fillet became a weekend meal.

According to retail research, the popularity of promotional products will increase in 2025: more than 60% of Ukrainians actively look for discounts before purchasing. A new trend of so-called “borscht optimization” appeared: recipes on forums began to be massively adapted to new realities and became meat-free, with fewer vegetables or even replacing expensive ingredients with cheaper counterparts.

Networks also record a drop in demand for ready meals, delicacies, dairy products of the premium segment and an increase in sales of cereals, bread, and instant noodles. People refuse breakfasts “with cheese and butter”, switching to “tea and bread”.

Small businesses are also adapting. Increasingly, you can find “economy menus”, cheaper options for fixed lunches, smaller portions in cafes. Ukrainian gastronomy begins to live in a new paradigm: smaller, simpler, cheaper. We are watching inflation become a quiet change in lifestyle to one that is more impoverished, limited and anxious.

Despite regular reporting on the growth of the average pension, the authorities once again admit that the majority of elderly people in Ukraine do not have enough even for basic needs. Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Danylo Hetmantsev, said: pensions remain lower than the actual living wage, and this applies to the vast majority of pensioners. According to him, the average pension as of July 1, 2025 was 6,410 hryvnias. But this is not enough to cover even the real minimum expenses. In February, the Ministry of Social Policy determined the actual living wage for disabled persons at the level of 6,685 hryvnias. And in June, it should already have exceeded 7 thousand.

Thus, the average pension does not cover even basic needs, and more than half of pensioners receive less than 5 thousand hryvnias per month. This means that five out of six pensioners live below the actual survival rate.

Hetmantsev states that the pension has increased by 10% in a year, but does not take into account that prices have increased by 14%. That is, the real pension actually decreased. The minimums are not revised, the last time the state raised the minimum pension was in January 2024, it still amounts to 2,361 hryvnias. And here rhetorical questions arise: why does a representative of the government simply state these indicators and publicly admit that the majority of pensioners are doomed to poverty? Is it not in her power to change the situation? Hetmantsev’s statement is yet another admission of the failure of the system, which fixes poverty, but does not offer a way out of it.

Inflation in Ukraine is threatening not so much because of dry numbers, but because its influence is gradually beginning to be perceived as a familiar part of daily reality. Although official statistics speak of a slowdown, daily reality shows otherwise: Ukrainians are increasingly forced to limit themselves in the most necessary things. While the government reports that the situation is under control, people are cutting back on consumption, cutting meat off the menu, postponing the purchase of medicine and anxiously looking to tomorrow. And if in the near future the authorities do not move from tables to concrete decisions that will be felt in wallets, then the biggest challenge will not be the rise in prices, but the loss of people’s patience, which has limits.

 

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