Трамп и Зеленский завтра подпишут соглашение о совместном фонде восстановления Украины. Что дальше

The Ukrainian government is preparing to approve an agreement with the US on the joint development of Ukrainian minerals after a difficult period of negotiations. The document is expected to be signed by Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting in Washington on February 28. This will allow both leaders to avoid further aggravation of tension in the public sphere. Edition The Economist reports that Trump will no doubt present this as his own victory, but what Ukraine is actually committing to is not yet entirely clear. According to the latest information, Zelensky has flown out of Poland and is on his way to the United States. Edition The Guardian reports that the president will visit Ireland on his way to the USA

The document awaiting Trump’s signature is only a framework agreement — the first step in a larger process. Details of future cooperation will be agreed upon during further negotiations. Most importantly, Ukraine has so far managed to avoid the initial harsh conditions that the US tried to impose and shift the focus of the deal closer to a joint investment model. This is a much softer option than Trump’s initial demands, which insisted on $500 billion in compensation. That amount would offset US military and financial aid, although independent estimates put the real cost of that aid closer to $120 billion.

The document, which was developed by the governments of the United States and Ukraine, is called «Agreement on establishing the rules and conditions of the investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine«.

«President Zelensky is leaving on Friday. It is confirmed»

The first press conference of the Cabinet of Ministers with the participation of Donald Trump took place yesterday. The event was broadcast on the administration’s YouTube channel and attracted the attention of the world community due to the announced visit of Volodymyr Zelensky, scheduled for Friday. As reported by the BBC and Reuters, the main topics were the agreement on minerals and the settlement of the war in Ukraine. Trump emphasized the economic benefits for the US and emphasized that security guarantees of Ukraine should be a priority for Europe.

«President Zelensky is leaving on Friday. This is confirmed. We will sign a deal, a very big deal on minerals and other things«, Trump said.

Trump answered the journalists’ questions, as always, controversially and emotionally.

Ukraine is primarily minerals. The USA will sign a «very big agreement» that will help them «return the money spent» — as if America sponsored Ukraine not because of the war, but as a business investor who wants to recoup the investment.

Security guarantees? No, it’s to Europe. America is not going to give any «big guarantees» to Ukraine. Although Trump hints that if American companies work in Ukraine, this in itself will become a certain «security», because no one will want to do business with the USA (the logic is, of course, interesting).

The main goal is to end the war because he doesn’t want to pay anymore. Trump is tired of spending on Ukraine, so he wants to end the war as soon as possible. As? «We will have an agreement.» Which one exactly? It is still a mystery.

Putin is a «very smart guy», but he will have to make concessions. Trump is confident that he can «make an agreement», although he does not specify exactly what will have to be given to Ukraine or Russia.

Ukraine in NATO? Forget it. Under Trump, there will be no membership of Ukraine in NATO. According to his logic, this is exactly why the war started.

European peacekeepers? Well, let’s see. He «supports Europe» in general, but it is not known exactly how. First, it is necessary to «make peace».

Sanctions against Russia? They still remain. But he hints that in the case of an «agreement» this may change.

In general, Trump talks about Ukraine exclusively as a profitable asset: minerals, deals, expenses that must be returned. He does not want to guarantee safety, but assures that he will «make an agreement». And he also really wants the USA to stop spending money.

How did the «great agreement» between Ukraine and the USA evolve?

Its latest edition has become more balanced. It provides for equal partnership, expansion of funding sources, protection of Ukraine’s economic interests and compliance with EU requirements.

Equal partnership. Previously, control over the Fund remained mostly in the hands of the United States, and Ukraine had limited influence on decision-making. Now both countries have received equal rights in management, which allows Ukraine to protect its economic interests. The American side no longer has an automatic advantage, and decisions will be made jointly.

Expanded base of assets for financing the Fund. Previous versions of the agreement required the transfer of 50% of Ukraine’s future revenues from natural resources to the Fund, which created the risk of excessive dependence on raw materials industries. In the latest edition, the sources of financing have been diversified: now the Fund will receive revenues not only from resource extraction, but also from strategic infrastructure such as LNG terminals and ports. This reduces dependence on natural resources and makes the Fund’s model more sustainable. It is important that Ukraine retains ownership of its natural resources, and US investments are directed to their development and processing without transfer of ownership rights.

Investment protection. The document now contains provisions on mechanisms to protect the Fund from external pressure, illegal interference and raider attacks. The absence of fixed limits on financing amounts allows you to avoid debt obligations that could create economic risks.

Safeguard against cancellation of sanctions. Previously, the agreement only mentioned the need to observe the sanctions regime. It is now specified that the Fund cannot be used to circumvent sanctions, and additional safeguards have been put in place to keep them safe. Although specific sanctions are not detailed, in the context of the document it is most likely about sanctions against Russia.

Ratification of the agreement by the Verkhovna Rada. Earlier agreement did not demand mandatory ratification by the parliament, which reduced its legal force. Now the document is subject to approval by the Verkhovna Rada, which integrates it into national legislation and guarantees long-term effect regardless of political changes. This also puts before the deputies, who previously resisted the participation of international partners in the management of state assets, the need to revise their positions.

Security guarantees. For the first time in the deal appeared mention of US support in the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine. Although not a formal military commitment, such a clause sets the stage for further negotiations on more comprehensive security arrangements.

Compliance with EU requirements. Agreement provides, that during the development of a detailed agreement, the parties will try to avoid contradictions with Ukraine’s obligations within the framework of its accession to the European Union. This means that the mechanisms of the Fund’s work must comply with European norms of transparency, competition and management of state assets, ensuring harmonization with EU legislation and international financial institutions.

Detailed development remains ahead “Fund Agreement”, which will determine the specific mechanisms of management, financing and distribution of funds of the Fund. This document will also be subject to ratification by the parliament, which will ensure transparency and compliance with the national interests of Ukraine. Although certain aspects still need to be clarified, the current version of the agreement lays a solid foundation for cooperation between Ukraine and the US in the recovery and development of the Ukrainian economy.

Security guarantees are currently not specified

Government of Ukraine agreed a draft agreement that defines the rules of operation of the investment fund for the reconstruction of the country. This document establishes the conditions for attracting and using funds to restore the economy and infrastructure.

Either First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy Yuliya Svyridenko, or Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Sybiga will be able to sign the agreement. This shows the importance of the agreement both from an economic and a diplomatic point of view.

President Zelenskyy explained that Ukraine and the USA will be co-owners of the Fund, where half of the income from the extraction of minerals and rare earth metals will go.

He noted that the agreement is beneficial for Ukraine, as it does not appear in it as a debtor of the United States.

Zelensky also admitted that the document does not contain all the desired security guarantees, but it states the support of the US in Ukraine’s desire to obtain such guarantees for sustainable peace.