Despite the ongoing war, the topic of elections in Ukraine is gaining momentum. Discussions about the possibility of their holding are becoming more frequent, and some political figures, who disappeared from the information space after the beginning of the invasion of the Russian Federation, are now active again. Others, on the contrary, have not stopped their active activities and continue to influence public opinion. In the conditions when the country is waging a war for survival, the political scene is gradually filled with familiar faces, and the question arises more and more often — if elections are held in the near future, how will they be held and what challenges will Ukrainian society face?
Elections in wartime: political maneuvers or a real prospect?
In recent months, the issue of possible presidential elections has gained new momentum in the information space of Ukraine. At first, Western, American and Russian politicians started talking about them. For example, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham made the first attempt to «throw in» the topic of elections in Ukraine in 2023, calling for them to be held even in wartime conditions. Since then, this issue has periodically appeared in the rhetoric of American officials. Recently, the special representative of the US president for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said that 2025 could be a good time for elections. Such active attention to Ukrainian democracy can be explained by the desire of the US to prepare the ground for future negotiations on ending the war. After all, their results must be signed by representatives of the authorities, whose legitimacy will not cause doubts.
Over time, Ukrainian politicians began to talk about the elections, and later the highest officials of the state. The President of Ukraine stated that elections can be held only under certain conditions, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada asked his international colleagues to share the experience of elections in wartime conditions, and the Head of the Foreign Ministry confirmed that the President is currently weighing all the pros and cons. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that the suspension of martial law for the sake of the elections would endanger the existence of the Ukrainian army. In an interview with the British ITV News, he emphasized that the majority of citizens oppose elections during wartime, because they perfectly understand the possible consequences.
«I am not afraid of elections, but what do they mean in the current conditions? To carry them out, it will be necessary to either cancel or temporarily suspend martial law. In that case, we will actually lose the army. This is not only a question of morale and fighting capacity — it will be impossible to legally maintain such an army. And the Russians will only be happy, because it will hit our defense capability.» Zelenskyi explained.
He added that in the event of suspension of martial law, the military will have the full right to return home, which Russia will certainly use to intensify its offensive actions. The president also emphasized that the topic of the elections is being actively promoted by Russian propaganda, because its goal is to «promote a person who is beneficial for the Kremlin to the Ukrainian government.» In turn, the authorities of the Russian Federation declare that they intend to conduct peace negotiations only with a legitimate president, and do not consider Volodymyr Zelenskyi to be such.
Legally, the situation regarding the elections is clear: according to the first part of Article 19 of the Law of Ukraine «On the Legal Regime of Martial Law», holding any elections during martial law is prohibited. This applies to presidential, parliamentary, local elections and elections to the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. However, banning the law does not mean its immutability — if the necessary number of votes is found in the Verkhovna Rada, this point can be revised.
The issue of the president’s legitimacy is still a matter of political debate, but from a legal point of view, his powers are currently considered valid. At the same time, Article 83 of the Constitution of Ukraine directly prohibits holding only parliamentary elections during martial law, while presidential elections do not fall under this prohibition. At the same time, Article 103 specifies that the president is elected by the citizens of Ukraine for a term of five years, and for now he has expired. Formally, this means that by making changes to the legislation, it is possible to open the possibility of holding presidential and local elections even in the midst of war. However, such a scenario will not just create a unique challenge for the state — it can change the very logic of political processes. Elections under fire, voting in front-line cities, election campaigns against the background of daily reports from the front — all this looks like a scenario for which Ukrainian society is not yet ready.
If the decision to hold elections is adopted, Ukraine will become one of the few states that risked holding them in conditions of a full-scale war. But will this not lead to a new cycle of political crises, will the electoral system be able to adapt to extreme conditions, and most importantly, will it be a real election, and not just a formal procedure? These are questions that need clear answers before the country takes a step into this unknown political experiment.
If it wasn’t there, but now the political scene of Ukraine is gradually coming to life. Sociological research is already being conducted in closed mode, and some ratings are leaking into the public space from time to time. Electoral headquarters, which the major parties have not disbanded since the last election, are starting to become active again. While politicians publicly deny any preparation for the elections, they have actually already entered the pre-election race. Political forces are conducting an audit of their structures, checking local cells and deploying people at key points, preparing for the «X» moment. Printing party newspapers, loud statements in the media and social networks, campaign slogans, increased activity in the regions — all these are signs of hidden preparation.
It should be noted that the opposition political forces began to speak louder than anyone about the elections, trying to assess their own chances and count potential votes. They openly accuse Zelenskyi and his team of making war a tool for political survival, and peace a threat of losing power. Opponents are convinced: the longer the conflict lasts, the longer the current leadership stays in their positions, which is why it is extremely beneficial for them. At the same time, the authorities themselves perfectly understand that without a real victory, any election race will be a high-risk game for them. After all, without clear achievements at the front, against the background of the country’s economic decline, unfair mobilization and constant corruption scandals, it will be almost impossible to win the sympathy of the majority of voters.
And here is another interesting fact. On February 5, it became known that after almost three years of information isolation, the Central Election Commission has once again opened access to election data, in particular, lists of elected deputies and the composition of election commissions. This step seems significant, because since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, all this information has been closed, allegedly for security reasons. Moreover, the CEC is already completing the next stage of restoration of the State Register of Voters. This means that the system is brought into working condition, which can be far from a simple technical routine. Is this a coincidence or another signal? Most likely, we are witnessing another stage of preparation for possible political events, which may unfold much faster than many assume.
So, the totality of the listed facts creates a feeling in society that the presidential elections in Ukraine are not such a distant prospect. Even if there are no legal grounds for their implementation yet, politicians are already preparing, and therefore, this scenario is becoming more and more real.
Elections and electoral potential
When it comes to elections, the main factor in their holding is the electoral potential, which has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years. Millions of Ukrainians left their homes to escape the war and now form a powerful electoral segment abroad. If earlier the diaspora’s votes had a minimal impact on the election results, now the situation is radically different: foreign voters can become the factor that fundamentally changes the country’s political landscape.
As you know, there are now more than 10 million Ukrainian refugees abroad, of which about 6 million are in EU countries, and almost 3 million of these citizens have the right to vote. At the same time, according to the data of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the number of potential voters outside Ukraine may reach 4.5 million people, which is about 15% of the total number of voters in 2019. No matter how different the numbers are in different sources, the situation is generally clear. In addition, Ukraine does not have sufficient infrastructure abroad to ensure their participation in the vote: in some countries, it takes more than 10 hours to get to diplomatic institutions. That is, a large number of refugees will de facto be excluded from the electoral process.
However, there is another important factor. Over a million Ukrainian refugees ended up in Russia and Belarus. Will they have the right to vote? Is it possible to formalize their participation in the elections? This question is currently open and needs a clear legal answer.
In addition to the number, it is also important that from 25 to 60% of Ukrainian refugees do not plan to return home. Over time, their adaptation abroad is only increasing. At the same time, they remain citizens of Ukraine and, in theory, have the right to influence the election process. The only question is whether they will want to use this right and what will be their political choice. In addition, Ukrainians abroad are not registered in the consular register en masse. This means that a significant part of them will not be able to participate in the vote. In such conditions, their votes will either not be taken into account, or will potentially become the object of manipulation.
Western sociologists have repeatedly proven that refugees vote differently than citizens who remain in the country. Elections in Moldova and Georgia confirmed this pattern. The Moldovan diaspora in Europe ensured the victory of the pro-Western candidate, while voters at home were more divided. In Ukraine, the situation can be even more complicated: refugees can vote for completely unexpected political projects that are not popular among those who remain inside the country.
Another important aspect is that more than 30% of Ukrainian voters abroad (almost 1 million people) are men of conscription age. Most of them have problems with consular registration, which may limit their voting rights. It is noteworthy that only one out of 16 Ukrainians abroad is on the consular register. This creates a paradoxical situation: they have the right to vote, but may be excluded from the electoral process due to bureaucratic difficulties.
Previously, voting abroad did not have a significant impact on elections. For example, in 2019, out of 449,174 voters registered at overseas polling stations, only 59,830 (13%) voted. But if millions of refugees participate in the elections now, their result may be unpredictable.
And here the main question arises: do the political preferences of the refugees coincide with the course currently supported in Ukraine? If the majority of them support slogans like «Ukraine will never be in NATO», «peace at any price», «amnesty to all evaders», «let’s open the borders», etc., it can become a serious challenge for the state strategy.
So, if elections are held in Ukraine in the near future, it should be expected that its political future may be determined by those who have been living outside its borders for a long time. And this changes the rules of the game in the electoral process.
Possible problems of the election process
In addition to the need to stop hostilities, there are many other barriers that make it impossible to hold full-fledged elections in Ukraine. The first and most obvious challenge is security. As hostilities continue, every polling station becomes a potential target for rocket attacks. Closing the polling stations during an airstrike will not solve the problem — any attack, especially with the use of Daggers or ballistic missiles, can easily disrupt the election process. Transferring voting to shelters is also not a way out of the situation, since their number is too small, and most of them are not adapted to accommodate polling stations.
An equally critical issue is military personnel. According to various estimates, more than 1 million citizens are currently in the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine. Many of them are in the trenches, on the front lines or on combat missions. Obviously, they will not be able to vote physically. But can the election be considered legitimate if the people who risk their lives for the country will be effectively deprived of the right to vote?
In addition, technical difficulties can turn the election process into chaos. Millions of voters have changed their place of residence, some do not register to avoid being mobilized, which makes the logistics of voting extremely difficult. At the same time, switching to electronic voting is too risky an option, because even in developed countries it has been implemented for years. In Ukraine, the threat of hacker attacks and interference in the voting system is extremely high. There are already examples: in December 2024, cyberattacks disrupted online voting for the Public Anti-Corruption Council under the Ministry of Defense and hacked state registers. In such conditions, trusting online elections means opening the gates to massive falsifications.
Organizational issues also remain unresolved. Opening the borders is a necessary condition for the return of voters. But what to do with those who received temporary protection in the EU? Will European countries cancel this status? In what legal field will Ukrainian migrants find themselves? These issues have not even begun to be discussed.
And there is a big financial problem. The President of Ukraine has repeatedly stated that the elections will cost at least 5 billion hryvnias, and the source of financing should be Western partners. But are they ready to invest in the election process in the conditions of war?
And, finally, elections presuppose the availability of basic democratic rights and freedoms — freedom of speech, political party activity, agitation, the right to peaceful assembly. All of these freedoms are now legally curtailed by martial law. Can elections without them be considered democratic? Does this not contradict the principles enshrined in the Constitution?
However, there is another risk — public vulnerability to manipulation. Social networks and video platforms have long become a tool for influencing the electorate with fakes and high-quality deepfakes, which may well be the new reality of Ukrainian elections. At the same time, bot farms controlled outside of Ukraine will have a much greater influence than traditional television.
And if you add electronic voting to all these factors, the risks of tampering and interference make this prospect extremely doubtful. In the conditions of war, any mistake can be costly, and experiments with the electoral process can jeopardize the legitimacy of the new government even before it is elected.
In addition, there is another important point. Among the likely scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine, not only the holding of elections, but also the possibility of a referendum on the country’s neutral status as a condition for ending the war is increasingly being heard. Such a step, as well as the listed higher factors, can become not just a political challenge, but the cause of fierce civil confrontation. If the presidential election and the issue of neutrality were put to the vote at the same time, it would create an extremely explosive situation. After all, you will have to vote not only for the new leader of the country, but actually for its geopolitical future. Moreover, given the war context, the referendum in such conditions can turn into an instrument of external pressure — any decision made under the influence of war will be questionable from the point of view of freedom of choice. That is why the threat of such a scenario is worrying.
So, despite all the legal nuances and political maneuvers, the reality of elections in Ukraine during the war looks more like an experiment with unpredictable consequences than a real democratic process. Elections involve security, equal access to the vote, freedom of campaigning and confidence in their outcome – none of these aspects are guaranteed today.
The main danger lies not only in physical risks or technical difficulties, but in the possibility of a deep political crisis. In a war, any disagreements about the legitimacy of the new leadership could become another front — this time inside the country. So while politicians strategize and conduct covert pre-election preparations, the main question remains the same: Is Ukraine ready for elections that will not weaken its statehood, but strengthen it? In a situation where the state is fighting for existence, any political decision will have extremely important consequences that will affect not only the government, but the future of the country.
Oksana Ishchenko
