Aggravation of the situation at the front: Roman Kostenko assessed the prospects for an offensive by Russia and Ukraine
The situation at the front is getting more and more complicated. Russian troops intensified their offensive in the east of Ukraine, trying to dislodge Ukrainian forces and gain a foothold in strategic areas. In particular, we are talking about attempts to break through in Donetsk region, pressure in the area of the junction of three regions – Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as the potential deployment of a new offensive in the Zaporizhia direction. At the same time, Ukraine is steadily defending itself, strengthening its positions and preparing reserves.
Exhausting the enemy’s resources
People’s deputy and secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security Romana Kostenko believes, that the Russian army faces increasing difficulties in waging war on all fronts simultaneously. According to him, the enemy’s resources are currently limited. Russian forces are concentrating their main efforts on only a few areas, such as Kurakhivskyi in Donetsk region. Even in the case of a potential breakthrough to Dnipropetrovsk region, it will have mainly a political rather than a strategic effect, as Russia will have to level the front line.
“Regarding the breakthrough of the Russians into the Dnipropetrovsk region. There is a junction of three regions, the enemy is trying to break through. If the invaders even enter the Dnipropetrovsk region, it will have exclusively political significance for them. It will still be necessary to level the front along the Pokrovsk border.” Kostenko noted.
The People’s Deputy emphasizes that the situation in the Zaporozhye region deserves special attention. Russia previously considered this region as a possible point for a new large-scale offensive, but recent events have changed the plans of the occupiers. Due to the fighting in the Kursk region, the Russians were forced to transfer an entire division from the Zaporozhye direction, which indicates a temporary cessation of active hostilities in this area.
Is a new wave of Russian offensive possible?
Assessing Russia’s offensive potential in 2025, Kostenko noted that the enemy’s capabilities depend significantly on the ability to mobilize new resources. During the current hostilities, Russia is losing significant human and technical reserves, which makes a large-scale offensive in several directions at the same time unlikely. Instead, the enemy tries to focus on limited operations to achieve at least a tactical advantage.
“You can also go on the offensive with small forces. For example, by gathering one company from each direction. An offensive is the concentration of a certain amount of forces and funds in one direction. You see that the enemy is weak, you create an advantage there in forces and means and simply break through. Therefore we can always go on the offensive, but the question of expediency. Just an offensive for the sake of an offensive, of course not.” – believes the secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security.
Regarding Ukraine’s prospects of going on the offensive, Kostenko emphasizes that it depends on many factors, including mobilization reserves and the situation at the front. The Ukrainian Armed Forces can organize a breakthrough even with small forces, if an advantage in people and equipment is created in certain areas of the front. However, such actions must be carefully planned and strategically justified.
Ukraine continues to strengthen its positions, prepare reserves and accumulate resources for a potential counteroffensive. At the same time, international support and the supply of weapons and ammunition remain critically important, which will allow us to more effectively resist Russian aggression and ensure stable defense.
