Afghanistan, a country that has endured decades of war and political instability, is currently at the center of geopolitical interest because of its extraordinarily large mineral reserves. Similar to Mendeleev’s system, it is one of the few states rich in unique mineral resources. Installed, that Afghanistan has significant reserves of copper, gold, oil, natural gas, uranium, bauxite, coal, iron ore, rare earth elements, lithium, chromium, lead, zinc, precious stones, talc, sulfur, cobalt, travertine, gypsum and marble.
In particular, US Geological Survey estimates suggest that these mineral resources could be worth more than $1 trillion. With the growing global demand for rare metals needed to make electric cars, batteries and other high-tech products, Afghanistan is emerging as an important potential resource mining hub. However, despite its economic potential, the country is still facing a political and humanitarian crisis, which has worsened since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021.
Blitzkrieg to the Taliban
Ashraf Ghani was re-elected for a second presidential term in September 2019, but his reign ended prematurely — already in August 2021, Afghanistan was once again under the control of the Taliban. This did not come as a surprise, because it reproduced an already well-known situation: although it seemed that the 20-year presence of the United States and its allies strengthened the state, built up the army and promoted the spread of Western culture, after the withdrawal of international troops, Afghanistan again found itself in conditions dictated by the Taliban. A humanitarian crisis, a difficult security situation, chaos in the economy…
The Americans began their withdrawal in May 2021, and already in July the Taliban controlled a large part of the country. On August 13, they captured the strategically important Kandahar, and on August 15, they took Kabul without a fight. Ghani, who just a few days before assured that the struggle would continue, fled the country, taking with him considerable funds. He later explained his decision by the fact that he did not want to become a symbol of surrender to the Taliban.
After the fall of the government, the Afghan army actually disintegrated: part of the military went home, some even went over to the side of the new government. And although the Taliban initially promised amnesty, the persecution of former soldiers and officials later began. Resistance continues to this day: the National Resistance Front, led by Ahmad Masood (son of the legendary Ahmad Shah Masood), is fighting, in particular, in Panjsher province.
The change of power in 2021 demonstrated not only the inability of the Afghan government to confront the Taliban, but also the failure of the US strategy to stabilize the country. Twenty years of Western efforts, hundreds of billions of dollars, and tens of thousands of dead have ultimately failed to change the fundamental processes in Afghanistan.
The beginning of the end of the USA in the graveyard of empires
Afghanistan is often called the graveyard of empires. In the same vein, they write about the beginning of the decline of the United States.
After the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, a vacuum was created, which was quickly filled by pragmatic China, which has long been interested in the resources of Afghan lands.
Back in the early 2000s, China tried to agree with the Taliban to suppress the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (modern name: Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China). After the Taliban was forced to move to Pakistan by the US counter-terrorism campaign, Beijing began to interact with it through Islamabad. Since 2014, representatives of the Taliban have openly visited China, which indicated that the movement views Beijing as an important player capable of influencing the situation in the region.
In 2019, after the failure of negotiations between the Trump administration and the Taliban, China, along with Russia and other countries, actively joined the peace process. In addition to calls for the US to return to negotiations, Beijing sought to improve relations with the Taliban. China organized meetings of the Taliban in Beijing and later invited representatives of the Afghan government to negotiate with the movement. At the same time, these initiatives did not yield significant results.
In 2021, against the backdrop of the gradual withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, China intensified contacts with the Taliban. According to media reports, Beijing has offered cooperation: investment in road construction in exchange for ensuring peace. China has stated that it is ready to invest in the development of Afghanistan’s infrastructure and energy sector if the Taliban guarantees stability in the country.
In July 2021, a Taliban delegation visited Tianjin, where they met with the Chinese leadership. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of China emphasized that Beijing respects the right of the Afghan people to determine their own future, which actually meant recognizing the victory of the Taliban as a reflection of the people’s will. For their part, representatives of the movement emphasized friendly relations with China and expressed readiness to guarantee the safety of Chinese investors and workers who will work on the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
Chinese Interest: From Promises to Investments
After the Taliban seized power in 2021, international sanctions and economic isolation have significantly limited Afghanistan’s ability to attract foreign investment. However, China, following a pragmatic foreign policy, showed interest in the development of Afghan resources. Beijing is currently working to expand its Belt and Road initiative to Afghanistan.
In January 2023, the Chinese company Gochin signed a 10-year contract to develop lithium deposits in Afghanistan, which involves an investment of $10 million in the first year and up to $540 million in subsequent years. In addition, China is actively considering the possibility of infrastructure development, in particular the construction of roads that will connect these fields with Chinese industrial centers. As part of economic cooperation, Beijing recently delivered a large batch of affordable electric cars, which cost as little as $500 apiece, to Afghanistan. Now these electric cars can be seen on the streets of Afghan cities, as part of efforts to popularize new environmental technologies in the country.
It is important to note that as early as 2008, China received the rights to develop the Mes Aynak copper deposit, but due to security risks, mining never started. Whether this situation will repeat itself with lithium is currently an open question.
Cooperation between China and the Taliban implies mutual benefit and non-interference in internal affairs. In particular, the Taliban promised not to support Uighur movements in Xinjiang. This is in line with China’s desire to avoid the spread of extremism on its own territory. At the same time, China probably will not interfere in the domestic politics of the Taliban, including human rights violations, as long as it does not affect Chinese citizens.
Humanitarian crisis under the Taliban regime
After the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, the situation with human rights, particularly women’s rights, has significantly worsened. The Taliban quickly reversed many of the gains made under the previous government, including women’s right to education, work and participation in public life. Women were excluded from many professional fields, including public institutions and education, and were once again forced to wear traditional Muslim clothing and full face coverings. Open public events, participation in politics and public organizations for women became prohibited. Against the background of this repressive policy, thousands of Afghan women initially tried to protest and defend their rights, but these demonstrations have now been severely suppressed. The Taliban’s return to power has also drawn widespread international criticism, as the country has once again found itself isolated from most Western states, which demand improved human rights and compliance with international standards.
It is a pity that during the twenty years “without the Taliban” in Afghanistan, a new generation of citizens, inclined to education, innovation, creative search, was formed. Instead, the return of the era of Taliban barbarism forced people to stop technological development, scientific research. Many migrated to Western countries in search of a better life. The story of the “Afghan dreamers” is illustrative here.
After the Taliban took power in August 2021, a group of Afghan girl roboticists known as the Afghan Dreamers were forced to seek opportunities to leave the country due to threats to their security and restrictions on women’s education. A team of about 25 girls aged 12 to 19 from the city of Herat has gained international recognition for developing an affordable ventilator for COVID-19 patients using parts from old cars. In 2017, they received a special award at an international competition in the USA, and in 2018 they met Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
In August 2021, after the capture of Kabul by the Taliban, nine girls from this team, aged 15 to 19, along with their 25-year-old teacher, evacuated to Qatar. This became possible thanks to the quick response of the Qatari government, which issued visas for them in an expedited manner. In Qatar, the girls had the opportunity to continue their studies, and some of them received scholarships from the world’s leading universities. Currently, the rest of the team and their mentors remain in Afghanistan, continuing to fight for their rights and the ability to continue their activities in the field of technology.
The economic situation in Afghanistan: will the lithium regime save the Taliban?
The seizure of power by the “Taliban” caused a sharp drop in Afghanistan’s GDP by more than 20% in 2021-2022. International aid, which accounted for about 40% of the Afghan budget until 2021, has practically stopped.
The government of the “Taliban” places great hopes on mineral resources, since this is almost the only opportunity to receive foreign currency income. However, key challenges remain. First of all, we are talking about attacks by “Khorasan” – one of the branches of Islam, which threaten the stability of the regions where the fields are located. Due to the long-term war and the outflow of the population, there is a shortage of specialists for the mining industry. Due to the non-recognition of the Taliban government by most countries, the legalization of large deals remains in question.
The Geopolitical Aspect: How Does It Change the World Game?
If China can develop Afghan lithium mining, it will strengthen its position in the global supply chain of critical metals. The US and the EU, which seek to reduce dependence on Chinese supplies, may find themselves even more dependent on Beijing.
On the other hand, resource extraction can strengthen the Taliban’s position and give it financial resources to maintain power. At the same time, if economic reforms are not accompanied by international recognition, Afghanistan risks remaining in the role of a raw material appendage for China without the prospect of sustainable development.
Therefore, Afghanistan has the potential to become one of the key countries in the field of extraction of critical resources for the latest technologies. However, security risks, international sanctions and political instability make this process highly unpredictable. China, which has long been interested in Afghan minerals, continues to test its capabilities in the region, but the success of its projects will depend on the ability of the “Taliban” to ensure stability and transparency of deals.
Will lithium be a salvation for the Afghan economy or just another curse of resource dependence? The answer to this question remains open.
