Demographic crisis in Ukraine: how the country’s life will change with population decline

Ukraine is on the threshold of significant demographic changes that will determine its future. According to Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the country will never again reach a population of 50 or even 40 million. This statement, based on real data and trends, forces to review the strategies of development and adaptation of the economy to new conditions.

Ella Libanova in her own right interview”Glavkomu” noted that there will no longer be 50 million citizens in Ukraine. The probability of reaching such an indicator is possible only in the case of mass immigration, but these people will not be Ukrainians and, most likely, not even Europeans.

According to the expert, the demographic situation in the country depends on the population density. Before the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the population density was 45 people per square kilometer, which is significantly less than in Europe. With this in mind, Libanova emphasized the need to rebuild the country’s economic structure in order to function effectively with a smaller population.

Libanova gave the example of Norway, where only 14 people live per square kilometer, but there is a different economic structure based on forests and fjords. If Ukraine can adapt its economy, it will be able to get by with fewer people.

In addition, Libanova noted that the population density in Ukraine is now very different. In the post-war period, there will be regions where there will be less than 30 people per square kilometer. She also emphasized that Ukraine will remain a poor country for a long time, and in most poor countries the population is concentrated in large cities where there are jobs. Lviv, for example, is not a millionaire, but it affects a large area around, which makes it a metropolis.

Earlier, Libanova stated that in order to maintain the population of Ukraine at least at the level of 30 million, it is necessary to attract 300,000 migrants every year. This information caused a public outcry.

The expert predicts that by 2033 the population of Ukraine will range from 26 to 35 million people. She also noted that a return to the figure of 45 million is no longer realistic.

In addition, Libanova believes that after the war there will be a huge demand for construction workers, and Ukraine will be forced to invite them from other countries.

Demographic changes taking place in Ukraine require immediate adaptation and restructuring of the economic structure. The shrinking population poses new challenges for the country, but at the same time opens up opportunities for innovation and more efficient management of resources. According to the expert, attracting migrants and adapting to new conditions can become the key to Ukraine’s successful future.