Fruits and vegetables are now a luxury: how basic food is falling out of Ukrainian everyday life

A few years ago, Ukrainians easily put a kilogram of tomatoes, cucumbers, apples and something “for compote” in a basket. Today, in front of the counter with fruits and vegetables, many people involuntarily turn into mathematicians: they counted and took two apples instead of six. Seasonal and basic prices, which once seemed affordable to everyone, have now exceeded European prices. Against the background of rising prices, vegetables and fruits are gradually being replaced from the diet by simpler, cheaper products or excluded altogether. The daily food decisions of the majority of Ukrainians, whose salaries do not increase, depend more and more not on taste or utility, but on the market, the exchange rate, the consequences of the war and the vagaries of the weather. Therefore, everyday food is confidently shifting towards a trade-off between cost and calorie content, rather than variety or nutrition.

Price changes in the Ukrainian food market

Prices for vegetables and fruits in Ukraine continue to behave like a nervous market in anticipation of a crisis: some positions soar rapidly, others fall just as rapidly. In the first week of June, consumers received another “gastronomic lottery”: cherries, early potatoes, sweet peppers, and radishes rose in price on the counters, while zucchini, broccoli, Chinese cabbage, and cauliflower fell significantly in price. A similar picture is observed at the counters with greens and fruits. All this forms not only new price tags, but also new eating habits of Ukrainians.

Prices for early potatoes, for example, increased by almost 40% — from UAH 20 to UAH 28 per kilogram. At the same time, cabbage went into the red: instead of UAH 27, it can be found for UAH 13–15. Beets are getting cheaper, carrots are getting more expensive, and onions, it would seem, are stable, but they are gradually going up. Broccoli and cauliflower lost up to a third in value, and the price of zucchini almost halved in a week. Greens, which until recently were sold at the price of imported cheese, have now also become more affordable, although still not for every wallet. The fruit market behaves no less contrastingly: while pears are falling in price, cherries are setting new records, having risen in price to UAH 300 per kilogram. Apples, which were traditionally a budget option, now turned out to be more expensive than oranges. For example, the “Aidared” variety has doubled in price and costs 90 hryvnias.

On average, according to current observations, the cost of seasonal vegetables and fruits almost doubled compared to the same period in 2024. By in words head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Serhii Nikolaychuk, the current prices of food products in Ukraine have already approached the European indicators, and for certain product items even exceed them. Such a jump in cost is explained primarily by the shortage of domestic products. Due to the war, according to the calculations of agricultural experts, the production of some agricultural crops in Ukraine decreased by three times, and in some places by four times.

As a result, up to 70% of the vegetable basket is currently formed at the expense of imports, and it is import supplies that increasingly influence pricing. For example, the average price of tomatoes today exceeds UAH 95 per kilogram. In some retail chains, you can find products a little cheaper, for example, at Novus — for UAH 73.99. However, even this is more expensive than last year. Even large greenhouse complexes in Vinnytsia, Cherkasy and western regions are not able to cover the needs. A significant part of vegetables, in particular tomatoes and cucumbers, is imported from Turkey, Spain, and Morocco.

It is Turkish products that occupy a leading position due to lower cost due to cheap electricity and a favorable climate. In Turkey, vegetables can be grown all year round and this gives them an advantage in the market. True, Turkish tomatoes are often harvested unripe, which affects the taste qualities, which explains the superiority of Ukrainian vegetables in the perception of consumers. A similar situation developed with potatoes. If last year in June its average price was UAH 32.32/kg, now last year’s bulb costs more than UAH 36 in supermarkets. Fresh, young potatoes are sold at an even higher price: UAH 62.73/kg, which significantly exceeds the figure of UAH 47.66 last year.

Although in markets, for example, in the capital market, the prices are significantly lower – UAH 26 for old and UAH 40 for young potatoes. Unfavorable weather conditions disrupted the usual planting and harvesting schedules, which in turn affected the yield. Given the small stocks of Ukrainian potatoes, which usually run out before winter, the market is forced to focus on imports from Poland or Lithuania, which inevitably leads to higher prices.

Experts predict that prices can stabilize in 2025 only if the weather is ideal, i.e. moderate rainfall, without overheating. However, climate change and the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovsky Reservoir are already creating problems even with basic irrigation in many regions, which calls into question any hopes for a significant reduction in prices.

Cabbage is another example of price volatility. In the “ATB” network, last year’s harvest is currently sold at UAH 54.89/kg, while a year ago it cost UAH 17.65 per kilogram. Early cabbage has become cheaper than the starting prices by more than a third, but even now its price ranges from UAH 12 to UAH 22, which is three times more expensive than at the same time last year.

The situation with cucumbers looks somewhat more positive, although it is also not ideal. Ukrainian greenhouse cucumbers cost between UAH 30–55/kg, depending on the variety and quality. For example, at the Lviv market “Shuvar”, gherkins sell for 36 hryvnias on average. Despite a slight decrease in prices, they remain 37% more expensive than last year. According to EastFruit analysts, some growers managed to avoid serious losses due to the fact that the drop in value coincided with the end of the first crop rotation. Currently, greenhouse farms are already preparing for the second wave of planting, which is scheduled for the second half of summer.

In general, the situation on the market of vegetables and fruits remains unstable, and the dependence on imports and climatic risks only increases. Ukrainian agriculture, having reduced production volumes, loses its influence on domestic pricing. As a result, consumers increasingly pay not for quality or seasonality, but for logistics, exchange rates and external competition. And while Ukrainian vegetables and fruits remain imported products with added value, there is no reason to hope for cheap salads from the garden.

All this also happens in the background messages about the probable disappearance from the market of another basic product — rye bread. Its cost can already reach UAH 50 per loaf, and due to the refusal of farmers to sow rye, the prospect of an internal deficit in 2025-2026 looks more than real.

Price fluctuations covering the daily food market have long since turned from regular figures in the monitoring of analysts into signals about a change in the consumption pattern. Ukrainians are reviewing their habits, giving up the usual seasonal vegetables and fruits, choosing cheaper substitutes or reducing the amount of purchases. The ration shrinks like an old blanket, as if it has covered itself, but still something is cold.

Gastronomic swing in Ukrainian

As you can see, the prices of vegetables and fruits in Ukraine live a separate, almost dramatic life. One week we have cherries for 200 hryvnias, and the next week already for 300 hryvnias. Radish suddenly “jumps” in price, like at a sports competition, and broccoli falls to the bottom, as if it is tired of being the elite of the market. It is not just the whims of the season, because behind each such jump there is a long chain of reasons, where one broken thing immediately pulls everything else down. And this situation did not start yesterday. The spring of this year turned out to be explosive, and unfortunately, not in crops, but in weather extremes. Prolonged rains, flooding of fields, unstable temperature: these are not just spoiled summer cottage gardens, but disrupted planting and harvesting times, reduced yields and increased delivery costs. Peasant logistics, which were not simple even in peacetime, under the pressure of such conditions turns into a challenge with many unknowns.

And now add war to that. The southern and eastern regions, which used to feed the country with tomatoes, peppers, onions and apricots, are now partly mined, partly inaccessible or simply dangerous for any agricultural machinery. People are fleeing, machinery is standing still, fields are empty or mined. This not only reduces the number of products on the market, but destroys the supply chain system that has been built for decades. Everything that had been stable for years was now fragile.

Another, less noticeable, but no less aggressive factor is added to this – the increase in fuel prices and the lack of logistics resources. The price of diesel affects the cost of each kilogram of potatoes in the same way as the quality of the soil. If transport became more expensive, so did everything else. And if it is also an imported product, then the dollar exchange rate instantly inflates the price, turning bananas and oranges into conditionally available “alternatives” to Ukrainian apples or cherries.

We should not forget about the human factor, or rather, the speculative factor. When the product is less, and the demand remains stable or even increases, the big market players do not lose the opportunity to raise the price “just in case”. Traders at bazaars, supermarket chains, and wholesale warehouses are starting to work ahead of schedule. The risk of loss is compensated through the end user, i.e. you and me.

Consequences on the table

Consequently, the prices of vegetables and fruits quickly became an indicator of how Ukrainians change their habits and not out of their own will, but out of forced necessity. More and more often, products are bought not according to desire, but according to the balance in the wallet. The ration is reduced, like a place in a dormitory: you reach for variety, but there is only enough for the most necessary – potatoes, carrots, onions.

Today, pasta, cereals, and bread replace the traditional summer table with salads and fruits. Whoever has a plot, he still holds on. Those who do not have it, focus on promotions in the supermarket. And this creates food inequality in society. While some continue to buy cherries and broccoli without thinking too much, others count every hryvnia and postpone the purchase of apples “until retirement.” We are watching how food ceases to be an equal right, turning into a marker of income.

Another worrying consequence is the reduction of domestic demand. If a farmer sees that there is no longer a stable buyer for his radish or cabbage, then next year he simply does not sow, because there is simply no point. And this is already a direct path to a new, deeper deficit. Prices will rise not because of the weather, but because of a lack of interest in growing what does not sell.

What is happening now to the market for vegetables and fruits will have another, less visible, but extremely expensive consequence in the coming years – a medical one. Fewer fresh vegetables and fruits will inevitably lead to vitamin deficiency, indigestion, anemia, weakened immunity. The most vulnerable suffer the most: children, pensioners, people with chronic diseases. When, instead of a tomato, another piece of bread is put on a sandwich, it is no longer about saving money, but about the degradation of the diet, which will have negative consequences for health.

Semi-finished products, bread, cheap sausages are increasingly displacing vegetables and fruits on refrigerator shelves. And as long as broccoli or an apple remain in the zone of “unattainable luxury”, the country risks facing a new wave of diseases associated with poor nutrition – from obesity and diabetes to cardiovascular complications. It’s a silent crisis that doesn’t make the news, but which will eventually translate into waiting lists for doctors and rising health care costs.

The experience of foreign countries, which Ukraine has not yet mastered

While Ukrainians are racking their brains over how to combine broccoli, pension and utilities in one budget, other countries are also facing the consequences of rising food prices. And although the war, the scale of destruction and shortages have become a separate reality in our country, the experience of other countries shows that when basic food becomes more expensive, it becomes not just an economic issue, but a real social and even political challenge.

In France, for example, the government did not wait for zucchini soups to disappear from school canteen menus. A program of “cheques for fresh food” was launched here for low-income families. These are not just vouchers for food, but targeted assistance specifically for fresh vegetables, fruits and milk, so that people do not switch completely to pasta with sauce from nothing. These checks work through mobile apps and are accepted at major chains and farmers markets. The logic is simple: if you have no choice, then you eat cheaply and poorly. If you have support, you buy seasonal and nutritious.

In Germany, the main bet was placed on the manufacturer. Here they do not feed the population with subsidies, but help farmers to maintain stable prices. They implement this through compensation of energy costs, support of organic farms and even preferential loans for fertilizers and fuel. The less the farmer spends, the lower the price for the consumer. This is a slow, but systematic approach that allows you to avoid sharp jumps in value, especially in conditions of global crises.

In Poland, it was well understood that the main problem is not always in production, but in logistics itself. Municipal programs to support local markets were launched there: rent reduction for small sellers, cheaper transportation from the field to the slaughterhouse, minimizing the role of resellers. The result is immediately visible on the price tags — seasonal vegetables at the bazaar are cheaper than at the supermarket, and money stays in the regions, not in the pockets of retail chains.

In the USA, although the realities are different, an interesting model of “food banks” works, where they distribute not only long-term storage products, but also vegetables from farms that have not gone to retail. Thus, the state, large supermarkets and farmers reduce food losses and at the same time help those who cannot afford a full diet. This exchange of surplus for need benefits everyone.

Obviously, each of these approaches is hardly a magic pill. But they all come from one simple idea: if basic food becomes a problem, it is not a “market issue” but a direct challenge to politics.  If you remain passive, you will have to pay more later: not in the supermarket, but in the health care system, the social sphere, and in the loss of trust in the state.

Ukraine is just beginning to rethink the fact that food should not be perceived as just the contents of a plate. This is an indicator of how the state copes with crises. And the experience of others can be a useful hint, how not to leave people alone with a deformed diet. Ukraine is still monitoring prices from the outside, reacting not systematically, but situationally and mostly after the problem has become massive. The policy of food security is actually reduced to self-indulgence of the population: “if you have a vegetable garden, hold on, if you don’t have one, get away.” While other countries are implementing targeted programs that reduce the burden on the poor, the Ukrainian state has not yet created any instrument that would directly support access to quality food for vulnerable groups.

Farmer support, in turn, often remains at the level of declarations. Compensation programs are complex, convoluted, with little funding and bureaucratic barriers. It is easier for a small producer to reduce the area sown or change the culture than to fight for a conditional 5 thousand hryvnias from the state.

Logistics has become another area of ​​silent failure. Ukrainian markets, instead of receiving municipal support, pay insane rental rates, and carriers count every hryvnia for fuel. As a result, fresh produce is expensive, not because the harvest is bad, but because there are too many middlemen and too little government intervention in critical supply chains.

And most importantly, there is still no political recognition of the problem. The food topic in Ukraine still remains “secondary” in the eyes of officials, although in fact it has long since become a social and medical issue. Without a program to support affordable nutrition, at least in a basic format, the state risks not just losing part of the harvest, but also part of the health of the nation. While other countries react to the food crisis as a challenge to the state’s weight, Ukraine continues to perceive it as a private concern of everyone. And this became the weakest point of the entire structure.

The situation on the Ukrainian fruit and vegetable market is not catastrophic, but it is not a short-term misunderstanding either. Prices live by their own rules dictated by climate, war, logistics and economics. And none of these factors are going away anytime soon. Accordingly, price fluctuations, changes in assortment, seasonal spikes and instability have already become the new norm that society will have to get used to.

The structure of consumption has already begun to change: people choose cheaper, simpler and less nutritious. Manufacturers reduce volumes, focusing on demand. All this affects not only the market, but also the quality of life, from health to household decisions that Ukrainians are forced to make every day. It is likely that we should not expect price stabilization in the near future. Even with favorable weather conditions and a partial recovery of production in some regions, the general background remains difficult. Imports are becoming more expensive, fuel is unstable, and the risks at all stages from sowing to sale are only increasing.

Experts predict that the trend towards high prices for seasonal fruits, especially those affected by weather conditions or logistical disruptions, will continue until the end of summer, while some vegetables may still fall in price due to oversupply. However, in the fall, with the beginning of a new logistics cycle and a bookmark for storage, it is worth preparing for another spiral of price growth.

It is worth accepting a simple truth: changes in nutrition have already taken place and will only deepen. The situation does not look critical, but needs attention from state support to the agricultural sector to basic food security strategies. officials should take into account that when basic food in the state turns into a luxury, there can be no question of any civilized society.