If the war ends by 2030, the Russian Federation is more likely to become a threat to Europe: the head of German intelligence
The head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service BND, Bruno Kahl, expressed concern about further geopolitical threats related to the war in Ukraine. He believes that Russia can try to test the unity of the West and the effectiveness of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which guarantees the collective security of NATO member states. According to him, in the event of the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine in the near future, the risk of such an inspection will only increase. As reported dpa, he said in an interview with Deutsche Welle.
Kahl stressed that while Western countries hope to avoid such a scenario, Russia is likely keen to test the cohesion of allies. He emphasized that the course of the war in Ukraine directly affects the time of the alleged “check” by Moscow.
In his opinion, if the war ends by 2029-2030, then Russia will be able to become a threat to Europe much faster. That is, it will get the opportunity to direct its military activity to other regions, and the main focus of its foreign policy influence will be concentrated against Europe. He also suggested that Moscow may resort to blackmail or open threats to European countries much earlier than expected.
“An earlier time for the end of the war in Ukraine would allow the Russians to redirect their energy where they want it most – against Europe,” – Cal stated.
According to him, Russia is counting on a change in the international order in a favorable direction. The Russian leadership hopes that the world will return to a state similar to the 1990s, when it could expand its “sphere of influence” further west. The most desirable option for Moscow, in his opinion, is the complete withdrawal of US troops from Europe, which would significantly change the balance of power on the continent.
