Kyiv may receive NATO membership in exchange for a future diplomatic solution to the issue of territories occupied by Russia. About this informs the Financial Times, citing sources among Western diplomats.
The West considers this scenario a compromise, given the current situation on the front. More and more Ukrainian officials and diplomats are inclined to believe that providing Ukraine with significant security guarantees can become a basis for negotiations. In this scenario, Russia will de facto control part of the occupied territories, but this will not be legally recognized.
This approach does not mean recognition of the occupation of Ukrainian lands, but involves diplomatic efforts for their return in the future. We are talking about territories captured by Russia since 2014. Politicians in the West emphasize that they do not plan to recognize the illegal annexation of Ukrainian lands, but are looking for ways to quickly end active hostilities and move to diplomatic negotiations.
Western countries understand that recognizing the annexation would create a dangerous precedent and encourage further Russian aggression, which could undermine the international legal order. However, many NATO allies believe that Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance can be adapted to the circumstances, for example, a ban on the placement of nuclear weapons or permanent foreign military bases on the territory of Ukraine.
As the FT points out, NATO membership would guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty and allow it to continue its Euro-Atlantic integration, which is one of the main goals Russian leader Vladimir Putin is trying to undermine.
However, the biggest opponent of such a scenario is Washington. The White House fears that Ukraine’s membership in NATO during an active war may provoke Russia to further escalate the conflict, which threatens stability in Europe.
