Military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi outlined the main areas where the greatest Russian activity is expected in the summer

In the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, tension is noticeably increasing. Recently, conversations, messages in social networks and media about a possible new Russian offensive have been spreading in local communities. People increasingly discuss the movements of equipment, shelling, statements of the command and experts. Against the background of the general aggravation of the military situation, many perceive these signals as potential harbingers of the expansion of hostilities. That is why close attention to the forecasts and comments of military analysts is not only relevant now, but also vitally important for the frontline communities, which have been living in a state of constant threat for more than two years.

Military expert Pavlo Narozhny speaking on Radio NV emphasized, that in the summer Russia will focus its main efforts on two key areas: Pokrovsky, as well as Kharkiv and Sumy directions. The reason for choosing these regions is logistical availability. According to the expert, it is the most convenient place to supply ammunition, fuel, food, personnel and equipment from the territory of the Russian Federation. Large arsenals are located in the rear of the enemy’s offensive groups, and the distance from the Russian border to the front line is much shorter here than, for example, in the combat zone in the southeast.

Narozhny especially emphasized that the Sumy direction is currently no less hot than the Kharkiv direction, and in certain aspects even more difficult. According to him, approximately 60,000 Russian troops are already concentrated in the border area. At the same time, in his estimation, it will not be easy for them to advance deep into Ukrainian territory: this is hindered by Ukrainian advanced positions on the territory of the Kursk and Belgorod regions. These military strongholds are a serious deterrent, as Russian commanders cannot afford to leave such threats behind.

Particular attention is paid to the terrain: dense forests and forest strips stretching along most border areas significantly affect tactics. On the one hand, they give Ukrainian forces the opportunity to hide equipment and personnel. But on the other hand, this is also an advantage for Russians: they actively use these green corridors for mobile movement in small groups. More than 90% of the attacks, according to Narozhny, are carried out by small infantry units or motorcyclists who advance quickly through forest strips.

Despite the growing threat in the northeast, Pokrovsk remains the hottest spot for now. The expert emphasizes: it is here that the main forces of the Russian offensive are concentrated. There is already intense fighting in this area, and the pressure is likely to only increase.

However, according to the logic of supply and the presence of rear arsenals, Kharkiv and Sumy regions are also included in the list of priorities. In this configuration, the Russian command tries to maintain activity in several areas at once, forcing the Armed Forces to disperse resources and reserves.

Given the above facts, it can be expected that the situation in the north-eastern regions of Ukraine will remain tense in the coming weeks. Potential threats from the Russian Federation are a concrete reality for border residents. Local communities should pay special attention to the official announcements of the General Staff and law enforcement agencies in order to avoid panic, but at the same time, to be ready for the dynamic development of events. The word of experts and signals from the frontlines are not just analytics, but an element of everyday survival.