The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that in 2025, tariffs for basic utilities such as gas, heating and hot water will remain at the current level. This is stated in the NBU’s Inflation Report for October 2024.
The regulator estimates that tariffs will remain stable until the end of next year, but a gradual increase is possible starting in 2026. This adjustment is necessary to bring tariffs to economically justified levels due to the difficult situation in the energy sector.
‘Uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the adjustment of tariffs, especially energy tariffs, is a separate risk to the inflation forecast,’ the NBU said.
The regulator notes that a possible sharp increase in the cost of energy or other housing and utility tariffs could increase inflationary pressures. Such a scenario would require additional budgetary funds for subsidies to support socially vulnerable groups.
At the same time, the NBU warns that a long-term freeze on utility tariffs could have negative consequences for the financial condition of state-owned energy companies, which in turn increases the risks of destabilisation in the energy market. A prolonged postponement of the necessary tariff increases will lead to the accumulation of quasi-fiscal imbalances, which could create significant difficulties for the energy sector and the economy as a whole.
