Potential German Chancellor: Will Merz Be the One to Make the Kremlin See the Futility of War

In the language of politicians, this means playing the “Ukrainian card”. An instrumental approach to our country is observed in many electoral processes. Trump promised to stop the war within 24 hours. The potential chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, promises to present an ultimatum to Putin regarding the war in Ukraine and also to achieve peace.

The next federal chancellor will be called Friedrich Merz

This is how numerous German media reacted to the conflict between Scholz and Lindner, which provoked the announcement of a vote of confidence and the holding of early elections in Germany. Political scientists unanimously assessed the collapse of the “lighthouse” coalition as a chance for the CSU/CDU political force to come to power. The greatest potential to become chancellor in this connection was given to Friedrich Merz, who won the internal party elections and ambitiously declared: “There will be no more discussions about me personally. Now we are going to the federal election with me as the main candidate and then we will achieve a really good one result“. Moreover, realizing his advantages (and opinion polls show that the CDU leader enjoys huge support in Germany), Merz is trying to speed up the election by holding a vote of confidence as early as next Wednesday. Why is he in such a hurry to be elected? It is not only about political ambitions, but also about the desire to enter into direct interaction with Trump as soon as possible. Mertz promises that if he wins the election, he will come to the newly elected US president with a strong and direct position. In his pre-election rhetoric, he repeatedly criticized the authorities for passivity, in particular, he expressed his dissatisfaction with the unanimous support of Kamala Harris, which threatens further relations with the United States. “Trump has a good memory. The current federal government will no longer be listened to by the new administration“, Mertz is convinced.

Scholz is a lame duck in international politics

Scholz got the most, because Mertz earned him the nickname of the lame duck in international politics.

In particular, in order to modernize its air force and improve compatibility with allied weapons, the CDU candidate proposes to buy American F-35 aircraft. And not only to buy, but also to service them on the territory of Germany. He considers such an agreement to be mutually beneficial and attractive for Trump, who thinks mainly as a businessman.

Friedrich Merz also proposes some innovations in the social policy of Germany, which may later be reflected in the situation of Ukrainians who have currently found refuge in this country. The potential chancellor proposes to change the Bürgergeld system. This is a system of public payments aimed at supporting the unemployed and low-income population. Merz proposes to change the approach to social policy in Germany and support only those citizens who cannot work. Instead, those able to work should be encouraged to work by having their benefits suspended. Merz is believed to be following the reforms of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who encouraged employment to boost the economy by cutting such benefits.

If Friedrich Mertz’s reforms to reduce social benefits are implemented, it may make access to social assistance more difficult for Ukrainian migrants in Germany, especially those who are able to work. State support will be available only to those who are either unable to work or are actively looking for work. This may mean that Ukrainian migrants will have to integrate more quickly into the German labor market in order to have adequate social support and avoid the risks of penury.

Mertz plans to strengthen the migration policy, which may also affect the situation of our migrants in Germany.

Scholz did not prepare well for Trump

And Mertz wants to fix that. He sees great opportunities for Germany after the election of Trump as the US president. The CDU candidate is convinced that the Germans can show all their power in direct relations with the “aggressive Americans”.

It cannot be said that Mertz was consistent about European-American policy. Rather the opposite. In numerous interviews and statements, one can see how his position regarding the USA, NATO, and the future American president was changing. Recently, he worried about the possibility of the election of Trump, who considers NATO obsolete and may stop participating in it, which in turn will affect the security situation in Europe.

At the same time, it is becoming more and more obvious for Germany: Joe Biden was almost the last US president who actively supported the transatlantic ties formed after the Second World War. Regardless of who becomes the next president, the US foreign policy course is gradually oriented towards the Pacific region.

Putin’s ultimatum regarding Ukraine

The opposition candidate for chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, also made a statement regarding our country. He said he was ready to support the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine, albeit under certain conditions conditions. Before arranging the supply of these weapons, he plans to call on Putin to stop attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. If he does not listen, then Ukraine will be allowed to use missiles without restrictions.

At the same time, the current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, prefers to refrain from approving the supplies, as he fears an escalation of the conflict.

For reference, we note that the Taurus missile is a high-precision, long-range cruise missile developed by the MBDA company. It is designed to hit important targets at long distances, including military bases, command posts and other strategic objects. Taurus has a range of up to 500 km and is capable of penetrating well-protected targets using advanced navigation and combat systems. This missile has a longer range than other weapons deliveries Ukraine has received from partners, including the British-French SCALP/Storm Shadow and the American ATACMS.

Friedrich Merz also criticized the ruling coalition for publicly discussing its strategies, allowing Moscow to learn the details of the plans. He also noted that the decision on the supply of Taurus missiles should be made at the European level, and Europe should reduce its dependence on the US for supporting Ukraine.

The Kremlin must see the futility of this war

In September, Mertz gave a lengthy interview to the German mass publication Bild, where he explained his position regarding Ukraine as well.

To the question “Should Ukraine win the war?” he replied that he always believed that Germany should help Ukraine win the war, at least not lose it. At the same time, Mertz was convinced that Ukraine could not defeat Russia, and that it was never her goal own territory and force Russia to stop aggression.We must do everything possible to make Russia see the futility of continuing the war, although we are still far from that“, he summarized Mertz.

He admitted to reporters that if he had been chancellor since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, he would have done much more than Scholz. He considers the current balance of power in the war to be terrible. He also speaks openly about this in the Bundestag.

So, Friedrich Merz, as a potential chancellor of Germany, promises radical changes in the country’s domestic and foreign policy, in particular, this applies to Ukraine. His ambitions are aimed at strengthening the role of Germany in international relations, reducing dependence on the USA and intensifying the peacekeeping mission in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but only under the conditions of a clear position towards Russia. Mertz is willing to offer Ukraine more support, but with limits, believing that the real victory will be in forcing Russia to make peace. Such a strategy raises hopes for a more active participation of Germany in restoring stability in Europe, but its effectiveness remains in question.