The collapse of the ‘traffic light’ coalition: will Ukraine feel the consequences of the political crisis in Germany?
‘Second shock in one day’, “traffic light” coalition collapsed, “traffic light out” – this is how the German media reacted to the resignation of Finance Minister Christian Lidner, initiated by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Many call Trump’s victory in the US election the trigger for the political crisis in Germany, which erupted simultaneously with the announcement of the US election results. But there are also those who believe that this is the result of a long-overdue situation in German politics. In any case, following Lindner, other FDP ministers are also resigning. Scholz has scheduled a confidence vote in the Bundestag for January. This is expected to give him the opportunity to schedule early elections for March 2025. The ‘traffic light switch-off’ has caused great joy among the opposition. Representatives of the CSU and CDU, stating that the coalition has made history, called for new elections under an accelerated programme.
About the colours of the traffic lights
The so-called ‘traffic light coalition’ was formed in Germany as a result of the 2021 elections, in which no party won a majority in the Bundestag. It united the Social Democratic Party of Germany (red), the Free Democratic Party (yellow), and the Greens (green). The coalition was headed by Social Democrat leader Olaf Scholz, who later became Chancellor of Germany. Initially, the coalition tried to act in a coordinated manner, uniting around the priority issues of climate change, digital transformation, social reforms and economic modernisation. However, over time, the number of disagreements grew, and compromise agreements were quickly questioned, especially by the Free Democrats. Attempts by the Social Democratic Party and the Greens to introduce ambitious climate reforms were constantly met with resistance from the FPD. Eventually, internal tensions within the coalition led to the collapse. The ‘traffic light’ once again demonstrated that the coexistence of parties with different value orientations within a single political entity is a rather dubious experiment.
The parties representing the different colours were at different positions in the German political spectrum.
The Greens, as their name implies, insisted on paying maximum attention to accelerating the transition to alternative energy. The Free Democrats, on the other hand, considered this an unnecessary and unjustified restriction on economic development. The Social Democrats took an intermediate position on this issue, calling on their coalition colleagues to compromise, but occasionally supported green initiatives.
In turn, the Social Democrats and the Greens have always demonstrated openness to increasing public spending on social programmes and infrastructure projects. At the same time, the Free Democrats have been pushing for tax cuts and limited government intervention.
The FDP has always been in favour of the so-called ‘technologically open’ approach, which would allow for the use of various innovations to avoid climate problems. This included technologies that went beyond the energy transition and renewable energy sources. The Greens, on the other hand, demanded a focus on exclusively environmentally friendly technologies.
A failed experiment with colours
The ‘traffic light’ coalition in Germany, which united the Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party, officially collapsed on the evening of 6 November 2024. Disagreements between the partners reached a critical point over public spending. Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who represents the Free Democrats, due to ongoing conflicts over the funding of social and environmental programmes proposed by the Social Democrats and the Greens. Lindner, a supporter of strict fiscal discipline, is known to have occasionally blocked proposals aimed at expanding social support and increasing investment in climate policy.
The split became virtually unavoidable after Lindner released a paper calling for significant cuts in environmental and social spending. This drew criticism from other parties. Commenting on the situation, Chancellor Scholz said that the coalition had failed to reach a compromise due to different ideological views, and so he decided to end its existence.
For 15 January 2025, Scholz, who, according to some experts, had neglected the coalition’s communication department, called a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. If the government does not receive sufficient support, Germany will hold early elections in March 2025 instead of the ones scheduled for September.
Many political commentators have drawn parallels with 1982. Back then, the coalition led by Helmut Schmidt, who, like Scholz, represented the SPD, also collapsed due to a document prepared by the then Minister of Economy, Count Lambsdorf.
In 1982, a major political split occurred in Germany, culminating in the collapse of the coalition between the Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Free Democratic Party. This coalition had been in place in German politics since 1969. The rift between the partners led to the resignation of Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and resulted in the creation of a new coalition led by Helmut Kohl of the Christian Democratic Union. The collapse of the coalition culminated in a conflict over economic issues. The situation was exacerbated by the publication of the so-called ‘Lambsdorf Memorandum’ in September 1982, a document prepared by the then Minister of Economy Otto Graf Lambsdorf, representing the Free Democrats. The document proposed a series of market-oriented reforms that included restraining public spending and stimulating the economy by reducing social programmes. Social Democrats, especially those on the left wing of the party, opposed these initiatives as they were not in line with the party’s ideals and values. This incident led to a deep split in the coalition. The Free Democrats supported Lambsdorff’s course, while distancing themselves from their partners in the Social Democratic Party.
As a result of further internal conflicts, the Free Democrats announced their withdrawal from the coalition with the Social Democrats and sided with the CDU/CSU opposition coalition. This led to a vote of no confidence in Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in October 1982. It was the first successful vote of no confidence in German history. As a result, Helmut Kohl became the new Chancellor of Germany, forming a government with the CDU/CSU and the Free Democrats. The change of power marked the beginning of a long period of conservative governance in Germany under Kohl.
The situation in 1982 is reminiscent of the current split in the traffic light coalition, with the Free Democrats again showing a desire for a stricter fiscal course that is at odds with the views of their centre-left partners.
Implications for Ukraine
Now former finance minister Christian Lindner has tried to explain his position to coalition partners and representatives of other parties. On the X network, Lindner wrote: ‘The Greens in the Bundestag consider my proposals a ‘provocation’. However, many in economics and science see them as good for growth and jobs.
What do you say to this? Counter-proposals are welcome. Inaction is not an option.”
Instead, former coalition partners continue to criticise Christian Lindner. In particular, Green politician Anton Hofreiter accuses the sacked finance minister of being petty and ideological. According to him, if Lindner continues to behave as he has in recent days, the country will be better off without him ‘than with a minister who ignores reality’.
SPD MP Machit Karaahmetoglu said that Lindner is ‘an irresponsible egomaniac who puts his personal interests and those of his party above the well-being of our country’.
Sarah Wagenknecht, who is known for her anti-Ukrainian stance, took an even tougher stance. It is known that after the elections to the state parliaments, a party associated with Sarah Wagenknecht began to promote conditions that, in their opinion, should be met in order to join the coalition. Among these demands were the cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine, the organisation of ‘peace talks’ on Russia’s terms, and the refusal to deploy US missiles in Germany. Wagenknecht sharply criticised Chancellor Scholz’s plan to put the confidence vote in the Bundestag on 15 January. She called the plan a ‘prolongation of political insolvency’, adding that this is how Scholz is delaying the resolution of the crisis. She attributed Scholz’s plan to lift the debt brake as an emergency measure to the need to have funds to supply weapons to Ukraine while ‘bridges and rails are rotting in Germany and millions of pensioners are living in poverty’. ‘This government has rightly failed,” Wagenknecht concluded.
Thus, we can see that the collapse of the ‘traffic light coalition’ not only reflects internal contradictions, but also indicates possible changes in the political landscape of Germany, which could have serious consequences for its future and the future of Ukraine.
