Poland — a country that until recently was called an “EU newcomer” — is now rapidly joining the elite club of economies that are not just growing, but are changing the architecture of European welfare. According to VeloBank estimates and IMF forecasts, the Poles will soon they can not only to overtake Spain or Japan in GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power, but also to start breathing down the UK’s neck.
Amid a global slowdown caused by the Trump administration’s tariffs, Poland is showing steady growth. While the global economy faces its slowest growth rate since the 2020 pandemic, the Polish economy is gradually closing the gap with leading developed countries. Its economy may grow by 3.2% this year, and by 3.1% next year, which is higher than the world average.
What is behind the “Polish miracle”
Polish industry is not just strong – it has become the foundation of a new economic model. Automotive components, household appliances, electronics — all these products are today exported to Germany, France, Italy and further across the continent. Volumes of Polish exports in 2023 made up more than $339 billion is $92.6 billion more than in 2018.
Cranes for the world’s largest ports are produced in Gdansk, electrical transformers in Katowice, batteries for Tesla in Wroclaw. And this is not the rhetoric of politicians, but the result of decades of consistent industrial policy.
Another pillar of economic growth is information technology. Poland is not trying to catch up with the West, but is creating its own product. Huge hubs of IT services, in particular in Krakow and Warsaw, attract giants such as Google, Microsoft, IBM. This year, the Polish government calculates for a record $160 billion of investments — the lion’s share will go specifically to digital and innovative infrastructure.
The IT sector does not just create jobs, but forms a new class of young, educated Poles, oriented towards global standards and earnings.
Today, Poles buy more than ever. Private consumption provides more than half of the gross domestic product. In 2023, consumer spending constituted 57% of GDP. Confidence in the future, rising wages and the availability of credit make the residents of Warsaw, Łódź or Lublin the driving force of growth.
Over the past decade, Poland has diversified its foreign markets. If earlier a third of exports went to only one partner – Germany, today Poland is actively entering the markets of North America, Asia, and the Middle East. Some considers it is “the beginning of a new era of the economic geography of Europe”.
Moreover, in 2023, Poland for the first time in history reached shares of 1.52% in world exports. This is the highest indicator for the entire period of the country’s participation in global trade.
Despite geopolitical turbulence, Poland continues to invest. In the first quarter of last year, the volume of investments increased by 1.3%. The government is investing in green energy, the military-industrial complex, digitalization of education and healthcare. These are long-term investments that change the quality of life and the structure of the economy.
Today, Poland is more than GDP growth. This is an example of a country that not only adapts to new realities, but also shapes them itself. One can be ironic about the “Polish miracle”, but it is worth admitting: this story is not about fortune, but about strategic vision, courage and perseverance. And if the trend continues, then in a few years the “Polish way” will become a new economic reference point for all of Central Europe.
As it turned out, Poland is getting closer to the leaders, while other countries are slowing down
Spain was hit hard by the pandemic but quickly recovered, with the economy growing by 3.2% in 2023. But the pace is already slowing down: this year is expected growth of only 2.3%. Tourism, which feeds millions of Spaniards, has still not returned to 2019 levels. Young people do not have stable jobs, many leave for Germany or France. Because of this, the state is developing more slowly than Poland.
Japan’s main problem is a very old population. There, almost every third is a pensioner. Young workers are in short supply, and health care and pension costs are rising. Exports of Japanese cars have suffered because of US tariffs, and wages are growing more slowly than prices. the IMF lowered Japan’s growth forecast for the current year is up to 0.6%. This is one of the lowest rates among large countries.
After Brexit, there are many new customs and red tape for trade in Britain. Because of this, exports decreased, and many companies moved production to the EU. Even factories are laying off workers because it has become expensive to produce. GDP per person so far lowerthan it was before the pandemic. There are more people, the economy is not growing – as a result, everyone gets less.
Unlike these countries, Poland shows stable economic growth, investing in IT, roads, energy, and the army. People have jobs, business is developing, salaries are growing. The standard of living already reached 82% of the EU average and continues to approach the Western European average.
The “new factory of Europe” is experiencing a demographic crisis
Although Poland is currently developing rapidly, it faces demographic challenges that may affect its further growth.
The “new factory of Europe” is experiencing a demographic crisis: low birth rates and emigration of young people lead to a decrease in the population. According to projections, the number of workers could decrease by 2.1 million people by 2035, which is 12.6% of the current workforce. It can bring to the shortage of personnel in key sectors – education, health care, industry and agriculture.
It is a positive factor return Polish emigrants from Western Europe. From 2017 to 2023, the number of Poles abroad decreased from 2.5 to 1.5 million. In addition, the participation of older workers in the labor market increased after the reforms aimed at the continuation of labor activity. However, the participation of this group is still low compared to most developed countries.
Ukrainian migrants play an important role in the Polish economy. In 2021, they were the largest group of foreign workers in Poland. After the start of the war in Ukraine, Poland accepted about 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees, of which ⅔ employed. Their presence helps fill gaps in the labor market and contributes to economic growth.
Despite the positive impact of migration, Poland faces challenges related to the integration of migrants and ensuring their rights. In addition, immigration restrictions could worsen the labor market situation. In order to preserve the economic growth of Poland, it is necessary to develop strategies for supporting the birth rate, integrating migrants and increasing the participation of older workers in the labor market.
Poland: from pupil to European leader thanks to European funds and investments
If today Poland confidently builds roads, schools, power plants, launches innovative start-ups and attracts foreign companies, then it is not magic, but European funds. And this is Poland’s ability not only to ask, but also to effectively use financial assistance from Brussels.
Since Poland joined the European Union in 2004 received more than 245 billion euros from European funds. This was approximately 2–3.5% of GDP each year. This money went to building highways between cities, modernizing hospitals, connecting villages to the Internet, cleaning rivers, and developing ecological energy. And the main thing is that most of these projects are actually launched, and not left on paper.
This year, Poland plans to use up to 40 billion euros from EU funds. This is almost twice as much as in the past. The main part is coming from the National Recovery Plan, from which Poland has not yet used even a quarter of its possibilities.
Businesses also have a chance for support through the FENG, FEPW, FEnIKS programs, where you can get grants for the development of companies, innovations, and “green” technologies. Polish companies already are preparing submit applications for tens of thousands of euros — and they are pushed by the government itself.
European money is not everything. Poland also actively attracts private investors. This is where the Polska Strefa Inwestycji program works: companies that create jobs and invest in technology receive tax breaks. Enterprises that are working in this program, may not pay taxes for 10-15 years.
In addition, Poland is one of the few EU countries that openly stated: we need investors and will create conditions for them. And it works. The factories of LG, Amazon, Mercedes, and Intel on Polish soil are no accident.
But there is also control. Poland continued by the middle of this year, a foreign investment screening regime to avoid interference by countries that may act against the security of Poland or the EU.
Poland does not sit and ask. It systematically uses EU support, attracts investors and turns it into an economic force. If the subsidies are stable and the business policy remains open, Poland has every chance to turn from a “student of Europe” into one of its new leaders.
Tetyana Viktorova
