Ukraine has been in a deep demographic crisis for a long time, which continues to deepen every year. The last population census was conducted back in 2001, when the official population of the country was 48,457,000. Since then, the population has been steadily decreasing, reaching critically low levels. According to the Institute of Demography of Ukraine, as of the beginning of 2022, slightly more than 42 million people lived in Ukraine, taking into account the temporarily occupied territories – Crimea and part of Donbas.
However, now the real situation is even more alarming. According to the estimates of Western experts, only about 29 million people currently live in the territory controlled by the Ukrainian state. This amount confirmed Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director for scientific work of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, noting that the data have an error of one million. He emphasizes that in the conditions of war and mass migration, it is very difficult to get accurate information, but even these figures are realistic.
“With an error of plus or minus 1 million. In our difficult conditions, this is a perfectly acceptable error. More or less, this figure corresponds to reality. If someone voices a figure of 28 or 30 million, then it is difficult to argue with this, because we have no “objective information”, – noted Gladun.
The expert emphasized that the current demographic situation in Ukraine is in a critical state, and its monitoring is becoming increasingly difficult due to hostilities and large-scale population migration.
The main reason for the demographic crisis is the low birth rate, which does not cover the high death rate. Ukrainian families are having fewer and fewer children, which is a consequence of economic instability, lack of social support and migration. In addition, a large number of young people leave abroad in search of better living conditions. According to various estimates, up to 8 million Ukrainians are currently outside the country, which further exacerbates the demographic deficit.
The war, which has been going on since 2014 and has especially intensified after 2022, has further complicated the situation. Millions of people were forced to leave their homes, moving both to the West of Ukraine and abroad. Huge human losses, destruction of infrastructure and danger to life have made Ukraine less attractive to live in.
This crisis has far-reaching consequences. A decrease in the number of the working-age population makes it difficult to restore the economy, and a decrease in the birth rate undermines the country’s social prospects. The state faced a challenge: how to stop this process and return Ukrainians home.
Currently, Ukraine needs comprehensive solutions. The priority tasks include creating conditions for increasing the birth rate, supporting young families, developing the economy, and creating a favorable environment for the return of emigrants. The demographic crisis is not just a statistic, but a reality that will determine the future of the country. If you don’t act now, the consequences can be irreversible.
