IA “FACT” already wrote, that recently Milorad Dodik was sentenced to a year in prison and removed from power for undermining the Dayton Agreement, which is the basis of the Bosnian state system. However, the convicted separatist politician calls this sentence political persecution, and the Kremlin supports him in this.
In spite of sanctions from the USA and the EU, accusations of undermining stability in the region, Milorad Dodik does not stop – it is profitable for him to play on the fears of the Serbian population, using the role of a fighter against the West. The disgraced leader of the Serbian nationalists ignores the decisions of international institutions, threatens to block state bodies and creates parallel management structures that threatens destabilization of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
His story is another example of how a politician, given a chance to change the country for the better, instead chooses the path of cheap propaganda and authoritarianism.
Influence on the stability of the Balkans
The situation surrounding Milorad Dodik and his conviction is another test for the stability of the Balkans. Visual classic game in “Karpman’s triangle”, in which Moscow and Belgrade play the role of saviors who use the political crisis to strengthen their influence in Europe. This is nothing new – Russia traditionally supports separatist movements that can weaken the West or complicate European integration.
It’s an all-too-familiar scenario: the greater the threat to autocrats, the more aggressively they attack the system that is supposed to contain them. If the West swallows this and does not give a tough answer, Bosnia risks entering a new phase of political chaos, where the law is only as valid as those in power recognize it.
Dodik was sentenced to prison and banned from political activity create a new reality that causes predictable reactions. Dodik himself has already declared that he does not recognize the verdict and is proceeding to an open confrontation with the Bosnian statehood. His threats to ban the activities of state law enforcement agencies on the territory of Republika Srpska resemble not just a political challenge, but a direct demonstration of separatism. This means that the tension in the region will only grow.
The reaction of the international community to the verdict of Milorad Dodik shows the realities of geopolitics. This is not just another internal conflict in the Balkans – another front in the global confrontation between the West and Russia. The destruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole country, which Dodik is provoking, is beyond doubt it turned out would be in favor of Russia, since in this case the European Union would face a new serious confrontation near its own borders.
Until recently, it could be argued that both sides of the ocean understand that Dodik is not just a regional separatist, but a key figure in the Kremlin’s strategy to destabilize the region.
Washington has long targeted Dodik. Sanctions were in effect against him for several years, and the US continued to increase pressure. But with the Kremlin-friendly Trump administration coming to power, we should probably expect a reaction opposite to that displayed by Joseph Biden’s team.
For its part, the European Union hesitated for a long time and did not officially introduce sanctions. However, the countries of the Eurozone, which already understand that Dodik is not just a Bosnian problem, but a threat to the stability of the entire region, perceived this particularly acutely. If the Balkans begin to shake, the Europeans will be the first to feel it.
The conflict may not flare up immediately, but all the factors for escalation are already there: ethnic contradictions, Russian support for separatist movements, weakness of Bosnian state institutions. If the West does not intervene hard and in time, the Balkans can once again become a hot spot in Europe.
The political system of Bosnia and Herzegovina is an explosive mechanism that maintains the balance between ethnic groups
A little history for context. The Yugoslav Federation, created in 1943, began to fall apart after the collapse of the communist regime in the late 1980s. One by one, the republics declared independence. In 1992, Bosniaks and Croats decided to secede from Yugoslavia, but the Serbs were categorically against it – they understood that they could become a minority in the new state.
A brutal war began. Serbian groups supported by Belgrade opposed Bosnians and Croats supported by Zagreb. The conflict lasted almost four years. It was a real massacre: more than 100 thousand dead, mass ethnic cleansing, concentration camps, siege of cities. It was the most brutal war in Europe after the Second World War. A story that reminds us that the fall of empires is never bloodless.
After the brutal war of 1992-1995, the Dayton Agreement was artificial created two autonomous parts – the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, plus the neutral district of Brcko. Formally, there is a common state, but in fact there are parallel political systems that often block each other. Banja Luka is the center of the Serbian region, Sarajevo is both the capital of the country and the Federation of Bosniaks and Croats.
Bosnia has long since turned into a country from which people leave en masse. If in 2013 more than 3.4 million people lived here, now there are less than three million. Demographic catastrophe, corruption and political paralysis have become the norm.
The court’s decision on Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, one of the key players in the region and an open ally of Moscow, may to shake this delicate balance.
International representatives, in particular the High Representative in Bosnia, ex-minister of the German government Christian Schmidt, seek to strengthen the power of central institutions and bring the country closer to the EU. In Bosnia, there is a collegial presidential body made up of representatives of three ethnic groups – Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs, who alternately occupy the presiding post. However, their functions are mostly symbolic.
The National Parliament forms the Cabinet of Ministers responsible for international affairs, defense, law enforcement, economy, justice and social policy. The United Armed Forces of Bosnia were established in 2006, and the unified judicial system began to function in 2002.
Dodik rejected the court’s decision, announcing measures to limit the influence of state authorities in the Serb-dominated region. He announced his intention to block the activities of the central prosecutor’s office, court and special services, and also called on the Serbian population to leave state structures. He declared to his supporters: “Bosnia and Herzegovina no longer exists.”
Will Dodik remain in power despite the verdict
Milorad Dodik is a person who has always balanced on the edge of politics and open challenge to the statehood of Bosnia and Herzegovina. His sentence should have spelled the end of his political career, but instead he uses it as a convenient bottom from which to push himself to quickly rise to the surface for an even more aggressive confrontation. This is a classic strategy of politicians who consider themselves irreplaceable – not just to ignore the verdict, but to use it as proof of their “struggle” against the central government and the West.
Will Dodik remain in power? He has already stated that he does not recognize the sentence, and in Republika Srpska this sentence will simply not be carried out. Moreover, he does what actually leads to a complete refusal to obey Bosnian justice – for example, proposes to ban the activities of state law enforcement agencies on the territory of the Republika Srpska. This is actually a declaration of legal independence, and therefore a threat to the territorial integrity of Bosnia. And the main question here is not whether Dodik will be removed from power, but whether the central government in Sarajevo will be able to do something about it.
The support of Dodik from Russia, Serbia and Hungary complicates the situation even more. Dodik not only feels confident, but can also count on financial, political and informational assistance, which will allow him to shake up the situation further.
Will the Bosnian Serbs go into open conflict with the central government? Probably not. But this does not mean that the situation will remain stable. Dodik will play the card of gradual “legal autonomization” of the Republika Srpska, creating parallel power structures that undermine the unity of Bosnia. This strategy is reminiscent not of the 1990s, but, rather, of Russia’s methods in Transnistria or Donbas – legal separatism, which over time can turn into something much more dangerous.
The verdict of Milorad Dodik is not only a legal precedent, but also a political earthquake for the whole of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The reaction to this decision clearly divided society: for Bosnian Muslims and Croats, it became a confirmation that justice, albeit belatedly, still works. It is important for them to see that even the most influential politicians cannot undermine the constitutional order with impunity. For them, this is a sentence not only for Dodik, but also for the entire project of Serbian separatism in Bosnia.
But do not have any illusions – Dodik is still among the Bosnian Serbs remains a key political figure. Even those who do not support his authoritarian management methods will not be in a hurry to recognize the legitimacy of this court decision. Moreover, the dominant opinion among the Serbian population is that this process is a blow to the entire Republika Srpska, and not to Dodik personally. And here lies the main danger: if Dodik turns into a “martyr”, his influence will only grow.
Opposition forces in the Serbian camp get a chance to seize this moment. They can play on people’s fatigue with Dodik’s corruption and confrontational policies that have led to international isolation. But the problem is that the opposition is divided, does not have a single leader and does not offer an alternative vision for the future of the Republika Srpska. And while there is no real alternative, even those Serbs who do not support Dodik will rather tolerate him than accept the proposals of Sarajevo or the West.
The question is whether the international community is ready to take the next step. Dodik’s verdict opens a window of opportunity for change, but without active action from the West – sanctions, support for the opposition, tough diplomatic pressure – this opportunity will remain wasted. If Dodik gets out of this situation without real consequences, he will only have more reason to deploy his separatist course.
… The West now faces an important choice: either it responds harshly to these actions by increasing pressure and sanctions, or the situation will develop according to the same scenario that we have seen in other areas of Russian influence. Dodik’s verdict is just the beginning of the game. The main question is who will make the next move.
The world already has examples of how political leaders evade responsibility by using their own influence and the justice system for their own interests. Some powerful people, having received not one, but many criminal sentences, among which there was one that could turn into a 20-year imprisonment, not only avoided punishment, but also managed to tilt the cup of Themis in their favor. Now he is the protagonist of the global information agenda. Instead of answering to the law, he administers his own justice in the White House, enjoying a political honeymoon.
Tetyana Viktorova
