“This ocean is no longer yours”: Chinese maneuvers that exposed Australia’s vulnerability (continued)

IA “FACT” already wrote on how Chinese warships made unannounced cruises around Australia, entering and exiting its exclusive economic zone, firing near commercial airspace and forcing dozens of civilian flights to reroute.

This maneuver emphasized the vulnerability of Australia, whose navy is the oldest and smallest since World War II. Two Chinese warships have a combined 144 vertical launch missile cells, while 10 Royal Australian Navy warships have a combined 200.​

This situation forces Australia to reconsider its military strategy and dependence on the United States. In February, Australia paid half a billion US dollars as a down payment to support the US submarine industry to eventually acquire used American nuclear submarines as part of AUKUS, a security treaty with America and Britain.

Chinese officials said they were conducting exercises in international waters, like all navies, and had nothing to explain or apologize for. However, these actions caused concern in Australia and among its allies. The Minister of Defense of Japan stated that last year the ships of the Chinese Navy passed through the waters around the Ryukyu Islands 68 times, which is many times higher than the number of their “visits” – 21 times – in 2021. It is clear that China is gradually but steadily expanding its presence, showing the world that they can be anywhere, anytime.

Australian civilian aircraft and Chinese war games in the Tasman Sea

The situation with civil aviation in the zone of Chinese military exercises looks, to put it mildly, like a horror movie shot according to an illogical scenario. Chinese ships conduct shootings, planes rerouting, air traffic controllers praying they all make it to their destination. This is not an apocalypse scenario, it is simply a “peaceful” Chinese exercise.

About 50 aircraft change course in the Tasman Sea, because the Chinese suddenly begins to sound on the air: “Stay away because we’re going to start shooting nowChina is like a neighbor who decided to shoot a machine gun in the yard without warning that this is where you are playing with your children.

International law? This is for the weak. China conducts its training as it sees fit. Alert the aviation services? This is for cowards. Danger to civilian flights? Sorry, these are your problems, you’re just “flying wrong”.

Civil aviation found itself in the role of an outside observer who can hope that a missile launched during “peaceful exercises” will not penetrate the Boeing’s skin. And air traffic controllers trying to adjust routes are like firefighters putting out a house completely engulfed in flames.

The situation is extremely absurd. The only thing that can save is clear rules that will force the military to warn about their “games”. But China understands this very simply: if you didn’t have time to react, that’s your problem. One can only hope that every civilian flight pilot has taken a course in extreme maneuvering.

And here is all of Beijing. They are making a military move, and the world has to decide for itself how to get past so as not to get a bullet in the back. Actually, international aviation today is not about comfort and safety, it is about the game of “escape from the rocket”.

Peaceful Passage the Chinese Way: How Beijing Uses International Law to Show Power

International maritime law is something like a “charter of good behavior” that everyone solemnly signed and then put away in a drawer when the real game began. China perfectly understands that the main thing in diplomacy is to hold the fleet in one hand and the document on peaceful passage in the other. And while this fleet floats around Australia, Beijing proudly says: “We are not breaking anything!”

UNCLOS – The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – looks beautiful, but is better read in the silence of offices than working on the water. Formally, China does not violate anything when its ships appear off the Australian coast, conduct exercises and force civilian aircraft to change routes.

Because international law says: “Peaceful passage is legal“. But the peace here is the same as in “peaceful exercises” with combat shootings. Isn’t it peaceful exercises carried out Russia on the borders with Ukraine on the eve of a full-scale invasion, which gave the opportunity to Russian prisoners of war explain their stay on the territory of Ukraine because they “got lost” during these very exercises?

The law is like a bridle: where you turn, that’s where it came out. The question is not the law, but who interprets it. China interprets how it is beneficial to Beijing. Others just nervously smoke and call it “diplomatic discomfort”. Some suggest reviewing the rules of the game. He said that military exercises should be limited, countries should be forced to notify in advance of their “peaceful tours” in foreign waters. A great idea, especially for Beijing, who will simply reply, “This is not our problem”.

But even if the revision of the conventions begins, it will drag on for decades. After all, everyone knows very well: any new agreement becomes old as soon as it is signed. And China will simply rewrite the world map by this time.

Chinese Propaganda: How Beijing Turns a Show of Power into “Peace Protection”

However, Chinese propaganda, like the Kremlin’s, is not just an information campaign, it is an ideal machine for producing socially acceptable narratives. Where the world sees a show of force, the Chinese citizen hears about “protecting peace” and “maintaining stability.” Chinese television turns military exercises into epic blockbusters, where the People’s Liberation Army of China are brave heroes defending “primitive territories.”

When Chinese rockets fly into the sky, it is not an act of aggression, but a “demonstration of peace.” When the fleet storms Taiwan is in training, this is not an invasion plan, but “prevention of separatism”. Everything is balanced and ideologically correct. In this game, every word is subordinated to the logic of Beijing: “We are not aggressors, we are simply the main ones here”.

China sends slightly different messages to its external audience. Statements in the style of “we are just training, these are international waters” – an official diplomatic veil that hides the true intention: “We will be where we want and when we wantAnd if someone doesn’t like it, it’s their problem, not China’s.

Beijing is trying to keep the brand, saying that these exercises are just a response to the aggressive policy of the West. As if it is not China playing its muscles, but the USA and its allies forcing Beijing “defend“. They say: “This is common practice, everyone does it”.

Or considers Beijing, that the invasion of the armies of the Celestial Empire into Korea in 1950, the seizure of Tibet in 1959, conflicts with India in 1960, 1962, 1967, combat operations in the Paracel Islands in 1974 and the Spratlys in 1974, 1988, 1996, the war with Vietnam in 1979 and Clashes with the USSR in 1969 at Damanskyi and Zhalanashkol are not “waging war outside one’s country”? Is Beijing’s position that these events were “self-defense counterattacks” unshakable?

The scenario is painfully familiar, typical of authoritarian regimes. Similarly, the Kremlin argues its military presence on the borders with the countries of the former Soviet Union as a threat from these countries and NATO.

Beijing uses every opportunity to show its strength. But not directly – first he just “checks” whether there is someone who does not mind. And if silence is observed in response, the next time it will not be a staging of training, but a real game with rewriting boundaries.

This is how Chinese propaganda works: a smile on the outside, a fist on the inside. And when Australia, the US or anyone else thinks they can come to an agreement, it’s an illusion. China does not negotiate. He is waiting for you to surrender.

Australia between trade and security: how to survive in a game played by China’s rules

Australia faces a classic dilemma: how do you bite the hand that feeds you and not go hungry? After all, China is its largest trading partner, which can turn economic relations into a weapon of pressure, and instantly and painfully.

Beijing has already shown how it “plays” with the economy. In 2021, China stopped economic dialogue with Australia due to the fact that the latter loudly demanded to investigate the origin of covid and banned Huawei from building a 5G network. Respond China’s was simple and cynical: strict restrictions on the import of Australian wine, beef and coal. And this was not just an act of politics – it was a clear demonstration of who exactly controls the trading game.  Chinese government commission too stated, that Australia adheres to the mindset inherent in the “Cold War” era.

China accounts for a third of Australia’s trade. It’s an economic noose that tightens every time Canberra opens its mouth and indulges in more than polite diplomacy. Australia is weak because of its dependency. And if it actively responds to China militarily, Beijing can close its ports, and with them – half of the Australian economy.

Does Australia have allies? Yes. The US traditionally promises support, but this seems a bit ironic. Americans are always ready to support Australian wine and cheese when it comes to defending democratic values. But the question is whether are ready do they do it if their agreements with Beijing are at stake?

In response, Australia builds plans to acquire American submarines under the AUKUS agreement. The dream is beautiful, but the boats will arrive, perhaps after China rewrites the rules of the game in the region. They paid money to get security in the future, but China knows how to act in the here and now.

Therefore, Australia can choose: either continue to “trade wine” and remain silent as Chinese ships circle the continent, or actively ask questions, risking being left with a fleet that is sailing towards the economic bottom. China has made it clear: this game is by their rules. And in order not to lose, Australia must either change the game or stop being surprised when China scores.

Australia at the Crossroads: The Conflict of Human Interests and Geopolitical Realities in Relations with China

​It seems that the Fifth Continent is trying to play “grown-up” geopolitical games without fully understanding the rules. The domestic political debate about national security is like children arguing over whether they need an umbrella while a storm cloud is already rolling overhead.

Labor, now in power, say: “Yes, we are with America, we are strong, we will buy submarines, we are ready!” They are happy throw away billions on AUKUS, call to strengthen the army, but at the same time understand that the real “iron” will be received in 10 years. If China does not change the world map sooner.

Liberals are playing the same game, emphasizing the need for maximum military spending, showing affection for the US, waving flags, but forgetting to answer the main question: who will pay for this “defense extravaganza”? Because supporting allies is a good thing, but allocating funds for one’s own fleet is a completely different matter.

And the “Greens” stand aside, silently criticize and dream of world peace. They are against war, against the arms race, against any escalation. It’s easier for them. They see carbon emissions, but they don’t see Chinese ships. However, the question of who will protect the Australian coast from the Chinese fleet causes discomfort in them for some reason. It seems to them that enemies can be “talked to” or, as an extreme case, sprinkled with eco-pellets.

Chaos in society. Some believe that Australia should challenge China. Some people think that it is better to sit quietly and not annoy Beijing. And someone is generally convinced that the most important enemy is spending the budget on defense instead of social programs. Because, after all, if we build more playgrounds, the Chinese navy might change its mind about attacking.

This is not a consensus, but a trading floor where everyone shouts for their own. And while Australia is figuring out who has more security rights, China is just silently swimming in circles off its shores without asking for permission.

Tetyana Viktorova