Volodymyr Fesenko spoke about the prospects of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, security guarantees and the role of the Alliance in the new political realities

Ukraine’s membership in NATO has always been one of the most pressing topics in the country’s foreign policy. This topic causes constant discussions both in Ukraine and on the international arena. The issue of Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance has repeatedly become the subject of discussions, political agreements and even strategic conflicts. In the recent period, in view of global political changes, this issue has gained new relevance, especially against the background of the statements of the American political leadership. In this context, the director of the Center for Political Studies “Penta”, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko expressed a number of opinions on the prospects of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, security guarantees and the role of the Alliance in new political realities.

As the political scientist noted, it is important to realize that the decision on Ukraine’s accession to NATO is not made by the Secretary General of the Alliance. Fesenko emphasized that even the previous NATO secretaries, who were positive about Ukraine’s accession prospects, were unable to independently influence this issue. According to him, the new Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, is also not an opponent of Ukraine’s membership, but his influence in this matter is limited.

“His “buzzing” during the discussion of this issue in a conversation with Trump simply shows the ambiguity of his situation. Rutte does not want to say an unequivocal “no” to Ukraine’s membership in NATO, but in Trump’s presence he cannot defend the prospect of Ukraine’s membership in NATO.” – said the political scientist.

Fesenko emphasized that the most important task for Rutte now is to preserve NATO in its current form and protect the leading role of the United States in the Alliance. This is what makes Rutte adapt to the American president.

“Rutte is now one of the most obvious and consistent Trump-opportunists. And you can understand him. He is fighting to save the organization he leads.” – emphasized Fesenko.

Speaking about the position of the United States, the political scientist recalled that historically it was America that had a significant influence on decision-making regarding NATO expansion. However, according to Fesenko, under the presidency of Donald Trump, the prospect of Ukraine joining the Alliance is extremely doubtful.

“During Trump’s presidency, Ukraine will not be a member of NATO. Trump is convinced that the topic of Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO is the main stumbling block on the way to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he is ready to sacrifice this topic for the sake of ending the war without any problems.” he said.

The political scientist emphasized that there should be no illusions for Ukraine.

“Under Trump, we will not get membership in NATO. Another problem is what will happen to NATO under Trump? Will this block survive in its former form? And will this Alliance under Trump be an effective guarantee of security not even for us, but for Europe?”, – noted Fesenko, emphasizing that there are no answers to these questions yet.

At the same time, the political scientist emphasized that Ukraine should not give up its desire for NATO membership, because this is a matter of foreign political sovereignty.

“If we voluntarily agree to this, then we are renouncing our foreign policy sovereignty. And tomorrow the same Russia will ban us from membership in the EU.” – he thinks.

At the same time, Fesenko emphasized that it is important to look for new ways to guarantee security, because there are no absolute guarantees in the world. He noted that the main guarantee of Ukraine’s security is a strong army.

“On what political foundation will Ukraine build reliable security guarantees after the end of the war? First of all, it should be understood that no treaty (even on mutual defense, let alone neutrality), and even membership in NATO, and even nuclear weapons are not an absolute guarantee of security. Absolute security guarantees do not exist in nature at all.

These are significant safety factors (which for some reason have come to be called “safety guarantees”). And the main such factor for us is maintaining a strong army and strengthening its defense potential with the help of the most modern and powerful types of weapons. It is Ukraine’s effective defense capability that will be the main factor in deterring a new Russian invasion.

The second significant factor of such deterrence is the formation of defense alliances with our international partners, which currently and in the future involves the mutual supply of weapons, joint defense production projects, and, if possible, the deployment of the military contingent of partner countries on our territory. In the near and medium term, our main strategic partners will be European countries (including Great Britain). The development of partnership relations in the military sphere is also possible with Turkey.” – he emphasized.

Regarding the USA, Fesenko expressed a cautious forecast:

“As for the USA, under Trump, God grant that at least partial partnership relations and the possibility of purchasing American weapons will be preserved.”

He emphasized that Ukraine should not dwell on the issue of NATO, because a new security structure will inevitably be formed in Europe, into which Ukraine must integrate.

“Ukraine should not give up on the prospect of NATO membership (at least formally), but we should not dwell on this topic either. A new regional security structure will inevitably be formed in Europe, of which Ukraine will become an integral part.

Europeans already understand that without Ukraine they will not be able to fully ensure their security in the face of growing threats from Russia and a possible decrease in the level of US responsibility for security on the European continent. And we will need the political, economic and resource-technological support of European countries. This mutual interest will be the basis for the formation of a new defense alliance in Europe.” – he thinks.

Thus, Volodymyr Fesenko believes that Ukraine should remain open to the prospect of NATO membership, but at the same time look for other real opportunities to strengthen its own security through partner alliances and the modernization of the army. It is this way that will allow the state to preserve its sovereignty and ensure protection against future threats.