Политический ландшафт Канады меняется: отставка Трюдо и новые вызовы для Либеральной партии

In January, Canada’s political landscape was shaken: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who had led the country for nearly a decade, announced, who is stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party due to internal pressure and low personal approval ratings.  He lost popularity due to economic hardship, a housing crisis and the highest levels of immigration in decades. The last nail in the lid of Trudeau’s political coffin was President Trump’s statement on the introduction of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods.

Canada’s political parties are changing strategies amid worsening relations with the US and domestic crises

Due to new challenges, political parties in Canada are forced to change their strategies. Trudeau’s Liberal Party is focused on strengthening national sovereignty and reducing dependence on the US through diversification of trading partners. The Conservative Party seeks to strengthen defenses and review relations with its southern neighbor.  To counter challenges from Washington, the Conservatives are adapting their strategy, putting forward the slogan «Canada above all else». The New Democratic Party focuses on social cohesion and protecting the rights of Canadians under external pressure.

Trump’s aggressive policy has led to an increase in nationalist sentiment among Canadians. Citizens are actively supporting the national manufacturer by boycotting American goods and services. Hashtags such as #StandWithCanada and #CanadaStrong are gaining popularity in social networks, indicating the consolidation of society in the face of an external threat.

This situation demonstrates how foreign policy factors and the authoritarian actions of a neighboring state can influence domestic political sentiment and party ratings in Canada.

On New Year’s Eve, support for the Trudeau government decreased from over 50% in 2020 to around 20%, the worst in over a century. According to polls CBC, conservatives have 44.2% support, liberals — 20.1%, NDP — 19.3%. The main reasons for the fall in Trudeau’s rating were economic problems, rising unemployment and the housing crisis.

Uncontrolled growth in real estate prices and rents, as well as liberal immigration policies, caused popular discontent. In addition, the government’s fiscal policy, which burdened business with additional taxes and fees, led to a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.

Against the backdrop of economic problems and a drop in popularity, tensions within the Liberal Party have also increased. Late last year, one of Trudeau’s closest allies, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Khrystia Freeland, resigned due to differences in views on economic policy and response to external challenges. Her decision was a red flag that signaled about deep disagreements in the government and further increased the pressure on the prime minister.

In addition, the leader of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, whose support was essential to the preservation of the governing coalition, stated about the intention to initiate a vote of no confidence in the Trudeau government. The next race in Canada is scheduled for October 20, but the opposition insists on early elections.

Experts predict that this will significantly affect Ukrainians both in Canada and Ukraine. After all, Canadian conservatives are calling for an increase in the funding of their own armed forces, which may be reflected in the amount of aid to Ukraine. In addition, it will be more difficult for Ukrainians who sought asylum in Canada since the war to obtain refugee status.

Canada cuts immigration quotas amid economic challenges and affordable housing crisis

Canada is facing serious economic challenges, with the skyrocketing cost of living and affordable housing crisis becoming a reality for many Canadians. In response to these problems, the government announced changes in immigration policy designed to regulate the rate of population growth and ease the burden on the housing market and social services.

Despite the Bank of Canada cutting the key rate three times since last June, Canadian families continue to feel economic pressure. The point is that mortgages in Canada are usually variable rate or reviewed every 4-5 years, which can lead to higher payments, unlike in the US where most mortgages have a fixed rate for 30 years. The seriousness of the situation is underscored by the fact that Canadians spend a higher percentage of their income on debt service compared to Americans. The total amount of household debt in Canada exceeds the country’s GDP, unlike the US, where this indicator is lower.

Rising rents and high levels of debt complicate the financial situation of many families. High levels of immigration also drive up rents, adding to financial pressures. This economic stress is expected to continue into 2025-2026 as many mortgages come up for renewal.

Due to economic problems, the Canadian government decided to significantly reduce immigration quotas. This year the country will accept 395,000 new permanent residents, down from 485,000 last year. In subsequent years, these numbers will drop to 380,000 and 365,000, respectively.

The decision was made due to concerns about the impact of high immigration levels on the housing market and social services. There are also plans to cut the number of temporary residents by 30,000 this year to relieve infrastructure and social services, as well as address rising housing prices due to high demand.

The announced changes caused mixed reactions. Some citizens support reducing immigration, believing that it will help reduce competition in the housing market and facilitate access to social services. However, business representatives worry that fewer immigrants could lead to labor shortages and a negative impact on the economy, especially in agriculture, construction and health care. Critics warn that reducing immigration could create negative attitudes toward immigrants and make it harder for them to integrate.

The Trudeau Era: Achievements and Challenges of Justin Trudeau’s Prime Ministership in Canada

It is worth noting that the administration of Justin Trudeau left a deep mark in Canadian history, combining ambitious reforms with serious challenges. Trudeau’s outstanding economic, political and social assets include the following.

Trudeau formed a cabinet with an equal number of men and women, emphasizing his commitment to the principles of gender equality. His government introduced a tax on greenhouse gas emissions and banned the use of single-use plastics, showing leadership in the fight against climate change. In 2018, Canada became the second country in the world to fully legalize the recreational use of marijuana, marking an important step in reforming the country’s drug policy.

Active financial and military support of Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression is an unconditional merit of Trudeau and his government.

At the same time, the Canadian prime minister had to face serious challenges and come under waves of criticism.  Thus, the covid pandemic led to a significant increase in the national debt and inflation, which caused social tension. Trudeau’s liberal immigration policies have been controversial, as some believe they have led to oversaturation of the labor market and social services. A serious social problem was the sharp increase in real estate prices, which made the purchase of housing unaffordable for many Canadians.

Finally, the election of Donald Trump as US president has increased the degree of tension between the countries, particularly over trade disputes and border security issues.

Changes in the leadership of the Liberal Party

After Trudeau’s resignation as head of the Liberal Party of Canada, the latter is actively looking for a new leader capable of uniting the party and regaining the trust of voters. The main ones contenders — former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Khrystia Freeland and Minister of Finance Dominique LeBlanc.

Khrystia Freeland, who is of Ukrainian origin and has extensive political experience, said: «I am running to fight for Canada«. She has significant support among Canadians, but her close ties to former prime minister Justin Trudeau could be a hindrance.

Since 2015, Freeland has held key government positions, including Minister of International Trade (2015–2017), Minister of Foreign Affairs (2017–2019), Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance (2019–2024). She proved herself as an effective reformer and diplomat, known for her principled position in international relations and protection of human rights. Her well-deserved respect was earned by her active support of Ukraine and democratic values.

Political scientist Dennis Pilon notes, that a challenge for Freeland may be insufficient separation of her political profile from the Trudeau government. If elected leader of the Liberal Party, she would be the first woman to hold the position and Canada’s second female prime minister since Kim Campbell, who held the position in 1993.

Others a strong candidate the post of leader of the Liberal Party is Dominique LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs. His friendship with Trudeau began as a child, a testament to their deep personal and political ties. After his resignation, Freeland LeBlanc headed the Ministry of Finance, showing a willingness to be responsible in difficult times. His experience and commitment to the party make him a serious contender for the leadership.

The Liberal Party must not only choose a new leader, but also determine the future course of development in the conditions of political instability. The choice between Freeland and LeBlanc reflects the dilemma between the desire for renewal and the preservation of continuity. Both candidates have significant experience and support, which promises to be an interesting and intense leadership race.

Tetyana Viktorova