Even in 2022, the majority of Ukrainians who fled the war abroad were convinced that they would definitely return home. Three years have passed — and that confidence is disappearing. The data of sociologists and facts from life indicate an alarming trend: a significant part of Ukrainian refugees no longer connects their future with Ukraine. Even if hostilities end. Hundreds of thousands of people—mostly women and children—are being integrated into new societies. They learn the language, get an education, look for a job, draw up documents for long-term residence, and some are already applying for citizenship. From temporary migrants, they become part of permanent migration.
From 74% to 43%: two times less willing to return
27 March The Economist made public data from the study of the Ukrainian Center for Economic Strategy: 74% of refugees planned to return to Ukraine in 2022, and now only 43%. That is, the number of those who want to return has almost halved.
It’s no longer a spontaneous emotion — it’s a trend. People are not just waiting for the war to end. They ask another question: what will Ukraine be like after the war? Will it be safe? Will it be integrated into Europe? Will there be guarantees against Russia’s new aggression? Will freedom and rights be protected?
The Economist writes:
«The European Union’s «temporary protection» scheme, which offers 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees from the EU access to housing, jobs and benefits, expires next March. Europe is unlikely to follow Donald Trump, who is considering canceling the status of Ukrainian refugees in America. But regardless of whether the EU program is extended (for a second time), Ukrainians in exile are increasingly giving up on the idea of returning home.
For many, it is important not only when the war will end, but also how it will end. Ukrainians do not want to return to a country that will remain alone with an aggressor, without NATO membership, without security guarantees, with the Russian army a few hundred kilometers away.»
Poland as an indicator: more applications for PMP, more language courses
Poland, a country that has accepted more than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees, shows the most impressive dynamics. There has been a sharp increase in the number of applications for permanent residence, obtaining Polish citizenship and legalization of long-term status. More and more Ukrainians attend free language courses, adaptation programs, look for stable jobs, and transfer their children to Polish schools.
All these are clear markers: people are not waiting for a return. They are building a new life here and now. Often — with a feeling of pain and guilt, but also with the awareness that this is reality.
«Ukrainians are putting down roots in Europe. In Poland, the share of refugees, most of whom are women working or actively looking for work, has exceeded 67%. The government plans to allow refugees to exchange temporary protection for a three-year residence permit. The number involved «could be a few hundred thousand, or it could be all.» — believes Macei Duszyk, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs.
The lifting of martial law could open a new wave of migration
Currently, the majority of Ukrainian refugees are women, but after the lifting of martial law, up to half a million men of conscription age, who currently do not have the right to leave, could potentially go abroad. This is a potential new wave of emigration, which could become critical for the Ukrainian labor market, demography, and defense capability. As noted in The Economist, it is precisely because of these risks that martial law will not be lifted quickly. After all, immediately after this, Ukraine may lose hundreds of thousands more citizens.
ПОСМОТРИТЕ ЕЩЕ: After the start of a full-scale war, millions of Ukrainians were forced to leave their homes and go abroad. Some of them chose Turkey as a safe and relatively affordable country for temporary or long-term residence. However, regardless of the purpose of entry - tourism, study, work or evacuation - it is important to know that health insurance is not only mandatory, but also a vital element of a trip to Turkey. Is it necessary to take out insurance before traveling to Turkey? The Law of Ukraine "On Tourism" regulates the issue of travel both to Turkey and to other countries of the world, only with the availability of an insurance policy. This policy is a guarantee of your safety and peaceful stay outside of Ukraine. It is an effective tool that protects you and your family in case of unforeseen situations, and also serves as a guarantee of your financial security during your trip, regardless of the country you are visiting. Every Ukrainian traveling abroad needs an insurance policy: tourist, student, employee, pensioner. That is why 95% of tours to Turkey automatically include insurance. After all, thanks to the insurance policy, you can fully enjoy your vacation without worrying about emergency and force majeure situations, which, unfortunately, often happen to tourists. What insurance to take out for visiting Turkey Evaluating what insurance risks you may face in Turkey, you need to choose the appropriate travel insurance that will suit you. The list of risks can include injuries, burns of various degrees, deterioration of well-being due to heat, exacerbation of chronic diseases, contracting local diseases such as Coxsackie virus, and many others. When taking out the insurance, you should specify all the conditions and study all the insurance risks specified in the contract. In particular, you need to find out from the insurer where to call (which assistance company) if an insured event occurs, and what should be done first in such situations. When signing the contract, pay attention to the following points: Policy area. The maximum amount of coverage under the contract. Availability and size of the franchise. Separate coverage for COVID-19. Why do you need health insurance? If your journey starts with saving on an insurance policy - is it right? After all, during a trip to another country, it is difficult to find a hospital that would fit the parameters and would be available out of turn in an emergency for foreign citizens. Then either private clinics, which are very expensive, or a pre-issued insurance policy, which will save 100% of money during insurance cases abroad, come to the rescue. Health insurance can cover the cost of: - medical assistance. This article includes a doctor's examination, tests and all necessary medical procedures, including the costs of calling an ambulance; - assistance in force majeure situations. This refers to the payment of compensation in case of injuries after active recreation (this is indicated in advance in the contract): diving, surfing, mountain walks, etc.; - assistance to pregnant women. Medical insurance will cover costs both in case of premature birth and urgent gynecological care (if it is specified in the contract); - assistance in the event of natural disasters and force majeure circumstances that may harm health. Sometimes the deterioration of health can be caused by floods, hurricanes or other natural disasters. Is insurance required for permanent residence or employment in Turkey? For all foreigners aged 18-65 living in Turkey with a temporary residence permit, in the case of employment in Turkey with an open work visa, or on the basis of citizenship, it is mandatory to have an SGK health insurance policy (sigórta bedeli). At the same time, foreigners have the right to issue this policy both through the state and through private insurers. This public health insurance in Turkey has quite good conditions, but it is only available after living in the country for one year or during employment, as well as for students who have completed 3 months of study in Turkey. There are two types of SGK state insurance in Turkey: For individuals - SSK. For business owners in Turkey - Bağkur. The SGK insurance policy covers 100% of all medical services provided in municipal clinics in Turkey, and in a number of private Turkish clinics, this insurance policy guarantees a discount of 40 to 70%. The policy also covers up to 80% of the purchase of medications prescribed by a doctor. SGK insurance is essential for foreigners aged 65 and over, although it is not mandatory for this category. But given the fact that private insurers often refuse to take out a policy for the elderly, this insurance is the best option to take care of your health in Turkey. All family members (husband/wife, children under 18, dependent parents) are covered by this policy. How to choose the right insurance Insurance should not cost even half the cost of the ticket, while assistance in the event of an insured event should be decent and timely. All this is possible and has been working for a long time, if you take out an insurance policy with a reliable insurance company. First of all, you need to carefully choose the items that will be included in the contract and find out all the details of calculating the policy price and the cost of compensation. To reduce the cost, some points can be waived if the tourist is sure that this will not happen to him. For example, a tourist knows that he will not jump with a parachute and will not go to the mountains. Note! Standard insurance policies for a trip to Turkey and most countries in the world cover the costs of first aid, repatriation in case of death, and transportation to a medical facility. If you plan to engage in extreme sports or active recreation, then you need to buy another insurance, which costs a little more.
«Ukrainian women, who once made up the bulk of war refugees, returned home after the war. Today, it is more likely that the end of martial law will lead to the departure of even more Ukrainians, especially men of conscription age, who are now banned from leaving. The CES study says that more than 500,000 men could leave. Since this would be a disaster for the Ukrainian labor market and its ability to defend itself, the country will be hesitant to ease the restrictions.» — it is noted in the publication.
The state is trying to return it — so far to no avail
Ukraine declares efforts to return refugees. On March 4, the representative of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Verkhovna Rada, Taras Melnychuk, reported that the state allocated more than 150 million hryvnias for the return of citizens from abroad. But these funds look symbolic against the background of millions who have already integrated into other countries. The main thing is not money, but trust. And with this, as recognized even in power circles, there is currently a problem.
Ukraine is fighting for territories, for independence, for subjectivity in the world, but at the same time it is losing its people. And this threat is no less serious than missiles or drones. After the end of the war, Ukraine may wake up in a new reality: without millions of its citizens — without young specialists, an energetic class, a whole generation that already associates itself with other societies. It would mean a completely different country. And it must prepare for this now — not with slogans, but with a systematic return policy and guarantees for the future.
