Украинские беженцы могут остаться в Европе навсегда даже после окончания войны – экономист
Even in 2022, the majority of Ukrainians who fled the war abroad were convinced that they would definitely return home. Three years have passed — and that confidence is disappearing. The data of sociologists and facts from life indicate an alarming trend: a significant part of Ukrainian refugees no longer connects their future with Ukraine. Even if hostilities end. Hundreds of thousands of people—mostly women and children—are being integrated into new societies. They learn the language, get an education, look for a job, draw up documents for long-term residence, and some are already applying for citizenship. From temporary migrants, they become part of permanent migration.
From 74% to 43%: two times less willing to return
27 March The Economist made public data from the study of the Ukrainian Center for Economic Strategy: 74% of refugees planned to return to Ukraine in 2022, and now only 43%. That is, the number of those who want to return has almost halved.
It’s no longer a spontaneous emotion — it’s a trend. People are not just waiting for the war to end. They ask another question: what will Ukraine be like after the war? Will it be safe? Will it be integrated into Europe? Will there be guarantees against Russia’s new aggression? Will freedom and rights be protected?
The Economist writes:
«The European Union’s «temporary protection» scheme, which offers 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees from the EU access to housing, jobs and benefits, expires next March. Europe is unlikely to follow Donald Trump, who is considering canceling the status of Ukrainian refugees in America. But regardless of whether the EU program is extended (for a second time), Ukrainians in exile are increasingly giving up on the idea of returning home.
For many, it is important not only when the war will end, but also how it will end. Ukrainians do not want to return to a country that will remain alone with an aggressor, without NATO membership, without security guarantees, with the Russian army a few hundred kilometers away.»
Poland as an indicator: more applications for PMP, more language courses
Poland, a country that has accepted more than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees, shows the most impressive dynamics. There has been a sharp increase in the number of applications for permanent residence, obtaining Polish citizenship and legalization of long-term status. More and more Ukrainians attend free language courses, adaptation programs, look for stable jobs, and transfer their children to Polish schools.
All these are clear markers: people are not waiting for a return. They are building a new life here and now. Often — with a feeling of pain and guilt, but also with the awareness that this is reality.
«Ukrainians are putting down roots in Europe. In Poland, the share of refugees, most of whom are women working or actively looking for work, has exceeded 67%. The government plans to allow refugees to exchange temporary protection for a three-year residence permit. The number involved «could be a few hundred thousand, or it could be all.» — believes Macei Duszyk, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs.
The lifting of martial law could open a new wave of migration
Currently, the majority of Ukrainian refugees are women, but after the lifting of martial law, up to half a million men of conscription age, who currently do not have the right to leave, could potentially go abroad. This is a potential new wave of emigration, which could become critical for the Ukrainian labor market, demography, and defense capability. As noted in The Economist, it is precisely because of these risks that martial law will not be lifted quickly. After all, immediately after this, Ukraine may lose hundreds of thousands more citizens.
«Ukrainian women, who once made up the bulk of war refugees, returned home after the war. Today, it is more likely that the end of martial law will lead to the departure of even more Ukrainians, especially men of conscription age, who are now banned from leaving. The CES study says that more than 500,000 men could leave. Since this would be a disaster for the Ukrainian labor market and its ability to defend itself, the country will be hesitant to ease the restrictions.» — it is noted in the publication.
The state is trying to return it — so far to no avail
Ukraine declares efforts to return refugees. On March 4, the representative of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Verkhovna Rada, Taras Melnychuk, reported that the state allocated more than 150 million hryvnias for the return of citizens from abroad. But these funds look symbolic against the background of millions who have already integrated into other countries. The main thing is not money, but trust. And with this, as recognized even in power circles, there is currently a problem.
Ukraine is fighting for territories, for independence, for subjectivity in the world, but at the same time it is losing its people. And this threat is no less serious than missiles or drones. After the end of the war, Ukraine may wake up in a new reality: without millions of its citizens — without young specialists, an energetic class, a whole generation that already associates itself with other societies. It would mean a completely different country. And it must prepare for this now — not with slogans, but with a systematic return policy and guarantees for the future.
