The United States expects Ukraine to hold presidential elections by the end of 2025 if a truce with Russia can be reached in the coming months. Such a position told Donald Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg commented to Reuters, stressing that the election must be held because democratic countries usually vote even in times of war.
The Trump administration is considering the possibility of motivating Kyiv to agree to the elections by tying them to the initial truce with the Russian Federation. According to the plan of the USA, the winner of the presidential race will receive a mandate to negotiate with the Kremlin regarding a long-term peace agreement.
However, the Ukrainian authorities have not yet received official appeals regarding this issue. Kyiv has repeatedly emphasized that holding elections in the current conditions is dangerous and can only play along with Russia. In particular, there is a risk that Vladimir Putin will use the election process as an excuse to disrupt the negotiations, arguing that without a renewal of power in Ukraine, any agreements have no legitimacy.
Another key obstacle is martial law, which directly prohibits the holding of elections. Ukrainian legislation requires special changes to allow voting in wartime. The US raised the issue of elections as early as 2023 and 2024, but Kyiv rejected such an idea, believing that it would only increase internal divisions and create new opportunities for Russian influence campaigns.
Critics of such an initiative also draw attention to the potential threats that lifting martial law for the sake of elections could cause. This could cause destabilization, as mobilized military personnel would be given the right to leave the service, a possible economic outflow of capital, and a mass exodus of conscript-age men abroad. In addition, the election process will make Zelenskyi more vulnerable, which in the case of a weakening of his position will only intensify the political struggle within the country.
Despite this, the Trump administration continues to consider the possibility of elections as a key factor in shaping a new phase of negotiations with Russia. At the same time, there is no consensus among American officials about the implementation of this plan: some doubt that a peace agreement is possible in the coming months, while others believe that elections in Ukraine in 2025 are unlikely to take place due to the unstable situation.
The Ukrainian authorities are already analyzing the European experience of conducting elections during martial law, including the possibility of electronic voting. However, such changes can be introduced only after the end of the war.
If the hostilities continue after 2025, there will be a need to update the legislation to extend the powers of local authorities, which will become another challenge for the Ukrainian political system.
