Three years ago, Ukrainians left their homes because of the war, hoping that foreign borders would accept them only for a few months. Hastily packed suitcases and promises of “we’ll be back soon” became a symbol of those events. But time passed, and “temporary” life became commonplace. Someone found a new home here, a job, adapted to a different society. Someone is living the dream of returning all this time, counting the days until leaving back. And someone found himself in a vacuum: not his own there, and not quite his own here. Europe is changing the rules of the game, closing some aid programs, and now it is not just a story of survival, but of choice. Whose door will remain open? What bridges have already been burned? And will it be possible to return home when life there will no longer be the same as before?
Variants of article titles
- “Temporarily forever: how the fate of Ukrainian refugees changed”
- “Between Two Worlds: A Tearing Choice”
- “Integration, return or uncertainty: three paths of Ukrainian refugees”
- “Not an easy road home: are Ukrainians ready to return?”
- “Fleeing without end: how the lives of refugees change after three years of war”
- “Foreign Trap: When the Temporary Becomes Permanent”
- “Without the right to choose: the new reality of Ukrainian refugees”
- “To return or to stay: a dilemma that divides hearts”
Demographic portrait of Ukrainian refugees
During the three years of the war, the situation of Ukrainian refugees abroad has undergone significant changes. A representative sociological survey conducted by the research agency Info Sapiens in November-December 2024 on behalf of the Center for Economic Strategy allows us to trace these transformations and understand the current mood of our fellow citizens abroad.
Yes, for data survey, there are 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees abroad, of which 3.7 million left through the western borders of Ukraine. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, 43 million people have left Ukraine, and 39.3 million have entered, which shows the difference between the number of those who left and those who did not return. However, this does not take into account Ukrainians who were forced to leave for European countries through Russia or Belarus. According to experts’ estimates, about 239,000 Ukrainians left for Europe via Russia or Belarus, which is 0.2 million. In addition, according to UN data, another 1.3 million Ukrainians became refugees in Russia or Belarus.
The data of the given poll are controversial, because other sources say that more than 10 million refugees left for the border. In addition, the figures regarding the departure of 43 million and 39.3 million people are questionable. However, the general trend is clear – an extremely large share of Ukrainians left the country. The mass exodus of Ukrainians began in the first weeks of the war, in particular in March 2022, when 2.5 million people left. The first months of the war caused an unprecedented flow of Ukrainians to neighboring countries. Poland became the main destination, hosting more than 1.3 million refugees in 2022. However, over time, many Ukrainians began to move further to Europe, looking for better conditions for life and integration.
The outflow slowed somewhat in the spring of 2022, and from May to September most people began to return home. However, in the fall of 2022 – winter of 2023, the outflow increased again due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. In 2023, seasonal fluctuations were observed: in the spring, the return exceeded the outflow, in the summer the number of short-term trips with a return to Ukraine increased, and in the autumn and winter the outflow increased again.
In 2024, the outflow of Ukrainians abroad continued, especially at the beginning of the year (110,000 people), when refugees who briefly returned home went back to EU countries. In the spring, departures outweighed returns due to increased missile attacks and energy problems. In the summer, the outflow was 200,000 people, partially compensated by the return of 111,000 people in July-August. In autumn, the number of those who left was 85,000. According to experts’ forecasts, the situation in the spring of 2025 will depend, first of all, on security in Ukraine.
According to the survey, the following ranking of displacement by regions was formed:
- 32.6% moved from the east of the country;
- from the north – 28%;
- from the south – 21.7%;
- from the west – 11.7%;
- from the central part of the country – 5.9%.
The largest group among Ukrainian refugees is women with children. At the beginning of 2024, children made up about a third of all refugees, but by December their share had fallen from 32% to 29%, mainly due to a decrease in the number of boys aged 0–9 (from 9% to 6%). 44% of all refugees abroad are women aged 35 to 44, which is 6% less than at the beginning of the year, when their share was 50%. At the same time, the share of adult men among refugees increased to 27%, which is 9 percentage points more than in January 2024 (18%). It is interesting that 51% of the refugees had a higher education, and 28% had a special education.
Considering the composition of refugees, they were conditionally divided into the following categories:
- patriotic refugees – those who never got used to the host country (28%);
- classic refugees are mainly women with children who have not been abroad before (22%);
- quasi-labour migrants – those who go to earn money abroad constantly (25%);
- refugees from the war zone are the category most affected by the war, having lost their own housing (26%).
If we analyze each group regarding their plans to return to Ukraine, we have the following picture:
- representatives of the “patriotic refugees” group show the greatest desire to return – 86%;
- quasi-labor migrants left mostly for economic reasons, and therefore have a much lower desire to return — 13.5%;
- classic refugees also have a low desire to return – 23%. Many of them have successfully integrated into the life of the host country, and those who firmly planned to return have already returned.
At the same time, the group “refugees from the combat zone”, despite the fact that it includes people who suffered the most from the war, still plan to return to Ukraine – 43%.
According to Eurostat, as of the end of November 2024, about 4.2 million Ukrainians have the status of temporary protection in EU countries. There are 1.2 million of them in Germany, 988 thousand in Poland, and 385 thousand in the Czech Republic. At the same time, the Czech Republic has 35.3 Ukrainian refugees for every thousand people, which is the highest figure among EU countries. Only two other European countries that are not members of the EU have a higher share: in Moldova – 47.3 Ukrainians per 1 thousand inhabitants, and in Montenegro – 34 Ukrainians. The majority of Ukrainian refugees are in Germany (20%) and Poland (18%). The US hosts 5.4% of all refugees, and in total, together with Canada, these two countries have accepted less than 10% of refugees, while European countries bear the brunt.
How Ukrainians adapted to life abroad
Two years after the start of the war, some European countries began to revise their policies towards Ukrainian refugees. Norway stopped automatically granting asylum to all Ukrainians, citing the burden on the housing stock, health care and education system. Hungary and the Czech Republic introduced tougher rules, limiting free accommodation and questioning the arrival of working-age men. In the Netherlands, housing problems are a concern among refugees. While Poland and Germany continue to provide significant support, there is increasing debate about the economic and social consequences of accepting large numbers of refugees.
For example, staying in Germany without registration is allowed for a period of up to 90 days. At the end of this period, you must either leave the country or apply for refugee status. In 2024, the country’s government planned to increase social benefits for refugees by 12% compared to last year. Suma financial assistance is distributed as follows:
- for a single elderly person – €563 per month;
- for single parents – € 563 per month;
- for an adult – €506 per month;
- children 14-17 years old – €471 per month;
- children 6-13 years old – € 390 per month;
- children under 5 years old – € 357 per month.
For the purchase of school supplies, the state also provides financial assistance in the amount of €130 per student in the first half of the year and €65 in the second half of the year. All payments stop as soon as the refugee finds a job. However, only every fifth Ukrainian aged 25-59 was able to get a job in Germany. Such a situation is explained the fact that 70% of refugees are women with children. The integration of women into the labor market is much more difficult than that of men, because mothers cannot get custody of their children, and therefore are forced to live only on financial assistance.
According to the Federal Labor Agency (BA), the share of working Ukrainian women is 1.2% in 2024, which is less than in 2023 (1.7%). The rate of working male refugees also decreased from 3.4% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024. They are hired mainly in the field of service work, giving preference to those workers who already have a driver’s license and on the condition of knowledge of the language.
Medical care is provided free of charge to Ukrainians with refugee status in Germany, but due to long queues it is not very easy to get to a doctor. In Germany, there is a difference between urgent operations, when help is provided “here and now” and a regular visit to the doctor with minor problems. So, you have to make an appointment and wait for your turn, and this moment may not come soon. Despite all the difficulties of the adaptation period, more and more refugees from Ukraine plan to stay in Germany. This is evidenced the results poll Center for International Institutional Comparisons and Migration Studies of the Ifo Institute in Munich.
77% of respondents expressed a desire to stay in Germany for at least two years, 2% plan to move to another country. According to experts, this decision was influenced by the protracted war. However, other reasons are noted – the impossibility of finding housing or children’s problems at school. At the same time for data of the Central Register of Foreigners of the Federal Republic of Germany, there is an outflow of about 321,000 Ukrainian refugees from the country.
It should be noted that Polish employers willingly prefer workers from Ukraine. According to the results of the study “Barometer of the labor market of Poland”, 78% of Polish employers have a positive opinion about Ukrainian workers. Respondents are among the positive qualities of Ukrainians allocate:
- quick adaptation – 42% of respondents;
- quick acquisition of the Polish language – 30% of respondents;
- industriousness – 34% of respondents.
Therefore, it is quite easy for Ukrainian refugees to find a job in Poland. This fact is evidenced by the dynamic increase in the level of employment of Ukrainians – 65% (2022), 80% (2023). Currently, there are 762,000 officially employed refugees from Ukraine in Poland (83%). Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 53% of refugees from Ukraine receive social benefits while living in Poland. But in order to stabilize the conditions of stay of Ukrainian refugees in the country, the Polish Seimas in 2024 introduced some changes in the provision of cash payments. In particular, one-time assistance of 300 zlotys was canceled.
PLN 40 per day for food and accommodation will now be available only if there is a signed agreement with the local self-government body. Monthly payments of PLN 800 per child and PLN 300 for the purchase of school supplies will be given only to parents whose children attend Polish kindergartens and schools. Also, starting in 2025, in order to obtain a temporary residence permit, resettled people will have to go through the procedure of issuing a residence card, which will be valid for three years.
As for living in Poland, the situation here depends on conditions, which have developed in the immigrant:
- 55% use housing paid for by their employer;
- 33% rent housing independently;
- 4% live in dormitories;
- 8% settled with local residents.
Medical system in Poland it is very similar to the Ukrainian one and is provided to patients free of charge. You can see any doctor without a referral from a family doctor, but by making an appointment yourself and free of charge. However, the family doctor himself, as in Ukraine, takes care of the whole family. If you need urgent medical help, you can call an ambulance, but if you call it in simple cases, you can earn a fine. A language barrier can hinder understanding between a doctor and a patient. Therefore, Ukrainian refugees are faced with the need to find an interpreter in such a situation, whose services they will have to pay for themselves.
The Czech Republic is the third country in our top by the number of accepted Ukrainian refugees. For the first six months, the state supports refugees with cash assistance in the amount of 5,000 kroner every month, and only then it pays out 4,860 kroner to adults and 3,490 kroner to children. The state also provides funds for accommodation:
- for those who settled in a house or apartment that is in the register of housing for refugees – 3,000 kroner per person;
- for those who live in a dormitory or rent housing – 2,400 kroner;
- for vulnerable categories of the population (single mothers, persons with disabilities, large families) – 4,800 – 6,000 kroner.
The labor market in the Czech Republic is in need nurses, construction workers, workers in various industries, teachers and service workers. According to statistics data only 30% of Ukrainian refugees work by profession. While 41% work in less qualified positions and do not have a specialty.
Medical care in the Czech Republic is free for refugees only for the first 150 days of their stay in the country. In the future, health insurance becomes paid. And only urgent cases are served free of charge. Also, in the absence of insurance, you can use the free services of volunteer doctors. By survey data, 65% of Ukrainian refugees over the age of 29 plan their future in the Czech Republic, and 40% of respondents over the age of 50 with the same intentions. Those who were unable to master the language (54%) and Ukrainian refugees with the lowest incomes (47%) want to leave the country.
With a long stay abroad, refugees gradually adapt to the new socio-economic realities and rules of the host country. Due to the process of assimilation and the feeling of uncertainty associated with life in Ukraine, the share of those who prefer living in Ukraine continues to decrease. As of the end of 2024, the opinions of refugees about where they should live were almost equally divided. However, almost half of the respondents have clear views on this issue.
It is worth noting that in the first year of the war, almost 40% of refugees had to save on food and/or clothing. However, after the initial economic shock, there is an improvement in the self-assessment of their economic situation.
At the end of 2024, Ukrainian refugees abroad reached the level of well-being they had before the start of the war. This was made possible by success in finding work and support from foreign governments aimed at integrating refugees. All this makes a return to Ukraine less likely. According to our estimates, after the end of the war, 1.7 million Ukrainians will remain abroad under the optimistic scenario, 2.3 million under the average scenario, and 2.7 million under the pessimistic scenario.
Experts predict that an additional 290,000 Ukrainian men will go abroad under the optimistic scenario, 389,000 under the average scenario, and 532,000 under the pessimistic scenario. It is worth noting that women are 31% more inclined to return to Ukraine than men. Older people are more likely to return — for each additional year of age, the likelihood of returning increases by 3%.
Ukrainians who work remotely for a Ukrainian company are 67% more likely to want to return than those who do not work or are not looking for work. Those in Poland are 90% more likely to want to return than those in Germany.
The size of the settlement from which refugees left also matters: people who left cities are 41% less likely to return than those who left villages. The higher the income before the war, the more likely refugees are to return: those whose income was higher than the average are almost three times more likely to want to return than those with the lowest income.
Consequently, three years of war changed the lives of millions of Ukrainians who were forced to seek refuge abroad. Survival, integration and a possible return home became the central themes of their existence, reflecting the complexity and multifaceted experience of Ukrainian refugees in the modern world. Then in 2022, most Ukrainian refugees were sure that it would not last long. They left their homes thinking that they would soon return. But time took its toll. Children went to local schools, parents found work, new habits, friends, routine appeared. At first, all this seemed temporary, but gradually it became usual.
Now, every time the question of return arises, many people wonder whether it is worth returning to Ukraine. Reconstruction is slow, the economy is weakened, and there are still no guarantees of security. As a result, the more people adapt abroad, the less willing they are to leave a relatively stable life and return to the unknown. For some, the decision has already been made, others still have doubts, but the general trend is clear: migration, which was perceived as forced, is gradually becoming permanent.
