World found himself on the verge of a complete breakdown of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The race has already begun, and today the question is not “Will there be a new cold war?“, A “Who will be the first to tear up the Non-Proliferation Treaty and set off a domino effect?“The balance of deterrence, which has held global security for decades, is rapidly weakening under the pressure of new realities.
The world is on the brink of a nuclear meltdown: Trump launches the dismantling of security guarantees
The international security system is entering a phase of global reassessment, where the return to power of Donald Trump is a key factor. His open doubts about NATO’s value are sounding a wake-up call to the world. Direct declarations of readiness not to fulfill obligations regarding collective defense if the allies “do not pay” actually announce the start of the dismantling of the US nuclear umbrella over Europe and Asia. And in these conditions, no one can guarantee that a chain reaction will not become an issue in the near future.
The Wall Street Journal writes: “Trump calls on Europeans to create their own nuclear umbrella”. These are no longer backroom discussions, but official level. France and Great Britain are seen as a new basis for Europe’s nuclear deterrence. Key opinion: “Paris openly offers to discuss the joint use of the French nuclear arsenal”.
Poland officially wants into the nuclear club, saying to the United States: give us access to nuclear weapons or we will look for other ways. This is a signal: confidence in American security guarantees is running out.
Asia does not wait. In South Korea, against the background of Trump’s statements and threats from North Korea and China, everything is getting louder are ringing calls for the creation of one’s own nuclear weapons: “South Korea Considers Japanese-Style Nuclear Delay”. This could be the collapse of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Why is it dangerous? Trump’s position is not random rhetoric, but a strategic turn, where the US does not want to be a guarantor of someone else’s security. Even more, the USA openly says that from now on it’s up to everyone for themselves. “Project 2025”, which is being discussed in the Trump team, involves not only the strengthening of the nuclear potential of the United States, but also the possibility of returning to nuclear tests and completely revising commitments to allies.
Germany, Poland, Japan, South Korea already are in the mode of developing survival scenarios. The debate is not whether a new nuclear race will emerge: it has already begun. The question is who will make the first move and break the remnants of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Europe is preparing for the nuclear era: Paris offers its shield, Warsaw demands weapons
In Europe, they no longer believe in the fairy tale about the eternal American nuclear umbrella. After Trump’s statements that he would “encourage Russia” to attack NATO countries that do not pay for defense, it became clear: strategic stability in Europe hangs in the balance. The process of revising the EU’s nuclear policy has begun. And the scenarios that ten years ago seemed fantastic are being discussed at the highest level today.
President Macron directly speaks about the readiness to provide the French nuclear umbrella to other EU countries. This is not the fantasy of journalists, but the official position of Paris. Poland and Lithuania are already public supported such an initiative. “We are ready to talk about French nuclear defense for Europe”, – said the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk.
Access to nuclear weapons requires and Poland. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński says simply: if the US weakens, Poland will look for an alternative.
Europe understands: it is necessary to prepare its nuclear shield. It is being discussed creation of a joint European nuclear deterrent based on France and Great Britain. But there is a nuance here: France and Britain have limited stockpiles of warheads: together – about 500. For comparison, the USA has more than 3,000. This means that even in the event of unification, the Europeans will still be weaker than Russia.
Currently the Alliance restrained from public statements, but the official position remains unchanged: “Nuclear deterrence is based on the strategic forces of the USA, France and BritainFrance, as always, is outside the command of NATO, but confirms that its interests coincide with those of Europe.
So the US can leave. France is ready to lend a shoulder, Poland is ready to fight with nuclear weapons. These are no longer just talks, but preparations for a new European nuclear era.
Asia is on the verge of a nuclear breakthrough: Japan and South Korea are preparing for their own weapons
The movement towards a nuclear race has also begun in Asia due to the fact that Washington is no longer perceived as a reliable guarantor of security. Trump has been talking publicly about “letting” allies negotiate on their own with North Korea and China. In response, the latter – the two closest allies of the United States – are beginning to say what seemed taboo a few years ago: the creation of their own nuclear weapons.
South Korea considers a variant of the Japanese scenario of nuclear latency – “the creation of all elements of the nuclear program in order to quickly become a nuclear state if necessary.” President Yoon Seok-yeol said: if the threat from North Korea and China increases, Seoul will return to the issue of nuclear weapons or will demand the return of American warheads to its territory.
In Japanese politics are fixed serious changes: some politicians are openly calling for a review of the “Three Non-Nuclear Principles” due to the fact that China is dramatically increasing its nuclear arsenal and North Korea is conducting tests. Japan is technically ready to become a nuclear power in a few months.
At the same time, the State Department is open admits risks and issues a joint statement with Japan and South Korea, where he once again promises “iron guarantees of extended deterrence, including a nuclear componentWashington fears that it will lose its monopoly on nuclear deterrence in Asia.
The alternative for Tokyo and Seoul is simple: either the placement of American nuclear warheads in their own country, as in Europe, or a full-fledged national nuclear program, or joint regional defense alliances against China and North Korea.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is bursting at the seams, deterrence no longer works
The Non-Proliferation Treaty is the main pillar of nuclear security in the last half century. But the world has changed. As soon as one country withdraws from the NPT or begins work on nuclear weapons, the deterrence mechanism fall apart.
Saudi Arabia is also ready to go all-in. The kingdom has long warned that if Iran gets a nuclear bomb, Riyadh will do the same. mass media are reported about the active construction of nuclear facilities in Saudi Arabia: officially, this is “peaceful energy”, but everyone understands that it is infrastructure for nuclear weapons. Where there is a nuclear reactor today, there may be an enrichment plant tomorrow. Saudi Arabia is exactly that is engaged in: they are officially building a peaceful atom, but everyone understands that these are dual purpose technologies.
Under the pressure of China, Taiwan can also make a sharp move, which has technical potential and military reasons to resume the nuclear weapons program. Beijing is already openly talking about a possible blockade or military operation. This creates a unique situation – Taiwan can survive only by obtaining nuclear weapons.
As for Brazil, the country was building nuclear weapons even under dictatorships. Today they are active develop nuclear submarine fleet – dual purpose technologies.
Harvard University writes: “The world is moving towards an even more dangerous Cold War 2.0“. Russia, China, the United States are modernizing their nuclear arsenals. Add to this the nuclear arms race in the Middle East and Asia – we have a complete package for a global crisis. The NPT is a corpse. New countries are preparing for a nuclear breakthrough. Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, South Korea, Poland, Japan – all are waiting to see who will break the chain first. These are not predictions, but reality.
The UN is already official admits: the risk of nuclear war is the highest in decades. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said:Humanity is sleepwalking into a nuclear catastrophe“. And called for the restoration of arms control.
The reality is that key deals are already dead or on the brink. START-3 suspended, Nuclear Test Ban Treaty does not work, and there are simply no new framework agreements.
Will diplomacy save? So far, this prospect looks weak. Arms Control Association offers hold a nuclear summit to bring Russia, China and the US back to negotiations. But it looks weak: Moscow and Beijing have already put on a force scenario.
The IAEA technically monitors the programs, but as soon as politics begins, everything breaks down. An example can be Iran. The agency has been recording violations for years, with zero results.
In 2024, the UN directly admitted: the non-proliferation system needs a full reboot or it won’t survive a new race.
The nuclear race as a trap: who will survive the game of trillions
The Kremlin has long made nuclear weapons key to its survival strategy. Russian military doctrine directly provides for the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a threat to the regime. Russia is not just modernizing its arsenal – it is deploys new warheads. In 2023, they increased by 36 units, which was a response to the actions of NATO and the USA.
China is no longer hiding. During the year, the Celestial Empire replenished its nuclear arsenal with 90 warheads: from 410 in 2023 to 500 in 2024. Pentagon hits on the alarm: by 2030, China will have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads. And it will be more serious than in Russia. Against the background of building up its own nuclear potential, China strengthens relations with Russia. A new axis of forces is being formed – against the USA and NATO.
Beijing and Moscow realize that if Europe and Asia embark on their own nuclear projects, the balance will be lost. Therefore, they are preparing to go ahead: expand their arsenals, conduct new tests, blackmail and pressure.
Only those who are already in the club or are ready to live out of suitcases will be able to finance. The development of nuclear weapons is not about “a couple of billions”. That’s trillions of dollars for decades to come.
Only the USA already laid down $756 billion to modernize its nuclear arsenal by 2046. This is the largest military program in history. In 2023, the US spent $37.4 billion on nuclear weapons. China – $10.1 billion, Russia – $8 billion.
Will Poland, Japan or South Korea pull this level? Without external help – hardly.
The main economic threat is that markets simply cannot withstand nuclear blackmail. Bloomberg declares: “It is worth at least one new country getting nuclear weapons – and the energy markets will go up, global investments in the regions will fall, as during the war”. Nuclear weapons are not about defense, but about the economic survival of countries. Those who enter the nuclear race will either become global players or bury their economies.
…The world has entered a new phase where diplomacy and control are no longer reliable safeguards. What yesterday seemed to be the basis of international security is rapidly losing weight today. Big players no longer rely on rules – they bet on potential. The winner will not be the one who negotiates better, but the one who is stronger, who has more warheads and a greater margin of safety.
The war of rules ends. The war of potentials begins. The world is on the verge of reformatting the entire nuclear policy. The illusion of stability, with which entire generations reassured themselves for decades, is rapidly crumbling. After Trump’s return to power, nothing will be the same. Those who still hope for “stability” should finally wake up. The race has started. And there is almost no chance that someone will stop her.
Tetyana Viktorova
