Approximately 700,000 citizens may leave Ukraine in the near future: the National Bank is sounding the alarm
In July 2024, the National Bank of Ukraine published an inflation report, in which he expressed serious concern about the future wave of migration from Ukraine. According to experts’ estimates, approximately 700,000 citizens may leave the country between 2024 and 2025. In particular, it is predicted that there will be an outflow of about 400,000 people in 2024, and another 300,000 in 2025. Experts’ forecasts indicate significant demographic changes that can significantly affect the economic and social landscape of Ukraine.
These projections are significantly higher than previous estimates made in April 2024. The main reasons for the mass migration are the deterioration of the electricity supply situation, the slowing of the pace of economic recovery and the high risks associated with the ongoing hostilities. Such problems create extremely unfavorable conditions for living and working, forcing more and more people to seek more stable and safer places outside the country.
Frequent power outages have a devastating effect not only on the daily life of citizens, but also on production processes in the country. Interruptions in electricity supply complicate the functioning of enterprises, which, in turn, leads to a significant reduction in economic activity. A decrease in production and business activity reduces the demand for labor, which leads to a reduction in jobs and complicates the problem of employment for many citizens. As a result, the working population faces difficulties in finding work, which reinforces the general economic and social crisis.
Despite the disappointing forecasts for the next two years, the NBU expects that the situation will begin to improve in 2026. It is predicted that about 400,000 Ukrainians will return to their homeland. However, the successful adaptation of refugees in other countries can slow down this process.
Experts emphasize that in order to accelerate the return of Ukrainians, it is necessary to focus on the restoration of housing and infrastructure, as well as the creation of new jobs. Stabilization of energy supply and improvement of economic conditions can become key factors for keeping the population inside the country and ensuring its sustainable development.
Migration outflow is a serious challenge for Ukraine, which requires a comprehensive approach and effective solutions. Restoring the economy, ensuring a stable energy supply and creating favorable conditions for life can contribute to the return of Ukrainians to their homeland and ensure the sustainable development of the country in the long term.
