China and the United States are cooperating to observe the asteroid “2024 YR4”, which has a real chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Although the probability of such a scenario is low, the potential consequences can be serious. About this informs Interesting Engineering.
The asteroid, whose diameter is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters, was discovered in December 2024. It was included in the list of high-risk asteroids concluded by the European Space Agency (ESA).
“The probability of a collision is low, but its consequences may be local. But the situation is so serious that it attracts the attention of the international planetary defense community”, — reports ESA.
The main task of astronomers is to determine the exact size and trajectory of the asteroid, since these parameters determine the level of threat. Current calculations are based on the analysis of reflected light, but because of this there is a risk of incorrect estimates – a small bright object can look like a large but dim one.
The asteroid will also be observed by the James Webb telescope, which operates in the infrared spectrum, which will allow more precise determination of its size. However, time for research is limited as it will disappear from view after 2028.
The threat potentially posed by “2024 YR4” is being addressed internationally. China is creating a special planetary defense team and developing strategies to deflect dangerous asteroids. Last year, the country presented a plan for the first such mission, the launch of which is scheduled for 2030. In its concept, this initiative is similar to the DART mission, which NASA implemented in 2022.
If a real threat is confirmed, NASA and China can use technology to change the trajectory of the asteroid and avoid its collision with the Earth.
