Ukraine has been experiencing economic difficulties for many years, which significantly affect the foreign exchange market and the hryvnia exchange rate. The dollar exchange rate remains one of the most important economic indicators, as it affects the prices of imported goods, investments and savings of citizens. For 2025, the average exchange rate is forecast at the level of UAH 45 per dollar, which is laid down in the State Budget. However, the reality may turn out to be somewhat different due to a number of factors, such as the demand for the currency, the yield of hryvnia instruments, the level of inflation and the influence of foreign aid. Given this, experts note that the dollar exchange rate may exceed the budget forecast and reach UAH 46-47 per dollar by the end of the year.
The macroeconomic forecast for 2025 foresees an average exchange rate of the hryvnia at the level of UAH 45 per dollar. This indicator, as notes financial expert Andriy Shevchyshyn, is based on average annual trends and takes into account a number of economic factors, including demand for currency, inflationary expectations and the NBU’s policy on maintaining the stability of the national currency. According to forecasts, the demand for foreign currency remains constant and consistently high. The reasons for this are both the outflow of capital from Ukraine and the needs of importers in foreign currency for the purchase of necessary goods. However, the specified exchange rate of 45 hryvnias per dollar can only be a guideline, since there are several factors that can affect its fluctuations in a larger direction.
According to the analyst, one of the main reasons for the possible increase in the dollar rate is the constant demand for the currency. The Ukrainian economy is going through unstable times, which forces businesses and the population to actively buy foreign currency as a means of protection against inflationary risks and loss of savings. The National Bank, for its part, continues to implement measures aimed at preserving economic stability and supporting hryvnia-denominated assets, such as domestic state loan bonds (OVDP) and bank deposits.
Shevchyshyn believes that in order to restrain the demand for the currency and protect the national economy from the uncontrolled outflow of the hryvnia from the banking system, the NBU tries to maintain the yield of hryvnia instruments at a level that exceeds the official levels of inflation. It is important that the yield on deposits and OVDP remains high enough to stimulate hryvnia savings. Thus, the National Bank is trying to control the rates of devaluation of the hryvnia and prevent a rapid fall of the national currency.
As Andriy Shevchyshyn notes, the average yield of hryvnia instruments is currently about 11%, which is higher than the expected inflation for 2025. This means that the potential managed devaluation of the hryvnia, which the NBU can allow, can amount to about 11% per year or 2-3% per quarter. Such a policy will allow maintaining a certain level of stability in the foreign exchange market.
Another important factor that will affect the hryvnia exchange rate, the expert calls the level of inflation. For 2025, the government predicts a gradual decrease in inflation rates, but the threat of high inflation still remains. In the case of rising inflation, the NBU will be forced to increase the yield on hryvnia instruments to compensate for losses from hryvnia devaluation, which may put additional pressure on the dollar exchange rate. In addition, external financial assistance remains an important factor for the stabilization of the Ukrainian economy. In the event of an increase or decrease in international support, the hryvnia exchange rate may experience significant fluctuations.
Based on the analysis of current economic conditions, financial expert Andrii Shevchyshyn predicts that by the end of 2025 the hryvnia exchange rate may reach 46-47 UAH per dollar. This means that the budget guideline of UAH 45 per dollar is only an average annual indicator, and the actual exchange rate at the end of the year may be higher by UAH 1-2. Such developments depend on many factors, including domestic economic policies, the state of inflation and the level of international financial assistance.
Therefore, the average exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine for 2025, laid down in the State Budget, may turn out to be an optimistic forecast, but real economic conditions may lead to its increase.
