“For the counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to mobilize up to 2 million people”: a soldier on the shortage of manpower
One of the most painful aspects of war is the issue of mobilization and providing the army with a sufficient number of recruits. Debates regarding the necessary number of mobilized personnel to conduct successful offensive operations often cause both concern and fierce disputes in society. The statements of military experts and direct participants in the hostilities add to the understanding of the complexity of this topic. Military serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Yevhen Ievlev on Kyiv-24 made statement regarding the required number of mobilized for a successful counteroffensive.
Ievlev believes that to implement a large-scale counteroffensive, the Defense Forces of Ukraine will need to mobilize 1.8 million people. Such a figure is based on military logic, according to which offensive operations require a three-fold advantage in manpower. Today, according to estimates, the Russian side has concentrated 600,000 to 700,000 troops at the front. Therefore, in order to successfully advance, Ukraine needs to attract about 1.8 million people. According to the military, this is the minimum number that is needed not only to conduct hostilities, but also to ensure stability in the liberated territories after the battles.
At the same time, he emphasized that the issue of mobilization of such a scale is complex and requires detailed strategic planning. After all, we are talking not only about the number of troops, but also about how to keep the liberated lands, ensure control over them and avoid repeated occupation.
Ievlev drew special attention to the state of the current combat units, which are in the zone of the fiercest battles, in particular in Donbas. According to him, these units are extremely exhausted, and the shortage of infantry has reached a critical limit. Infantry is the basis of holding the front line, and it is its lack that calls into question the possibility of a large-scale offensive in the near future. He also noted that, although the means of defeating Ukraine cause significant losses to the enemy, the main responsibility for holding back the front line still rests with the infantry.
At the same time, Ievlev admitted that the Ukrainian command may have separate plans for the liberation of certain territories by local forces. However, he emphasized that these plans should take into account the real state of combat units in order to avoid additional losses and crises.
The question of mobilization and the subsequent counteroffensive is a complex dilemma that requires in-depth analysis, coordination and strategic alignment between the military leadership and the political leaders of the country. Ievlev’s words emphasize the fact that such steps require not only resources, but also the support of society, which must be aware of all challenges and risks.
