Funding with uncertain consequences: will Ukraine receive the necessary support from Germany?

German politicians are passionate about helping Ukraine.

The situation is quite complicated. Officially the German government declaresthat there are no plans to reduce aid to Ukraine, and the support will continue as long as it is needed. However, changes in the approach to funding this aid are causing concern among politicians who support our country.

On the one hand, the German government plans to finance aid to Ukraine from 2025 through a new international fund in the amount of 50 billion euros, which will be formed from profits from frozen Russian assets. This means that direct funding from the federal budget may be limited.

On the other hand, critics of this plan fear that this approach could lead to an actual reduction in aid, since it is not known when and how much funds will be available from this fund. They believe that this may negatively affect Ukraine’s ability to receive the necessary support in a timely manner.

Therefore, there are no plans to formally reduce aid, but there are fears that new approaches to its financing may create problems in the future.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz officially declares that Germany will continue to provide assistance to Ukraine as long as it is needed. He emphasizes that changes in funding approaches do not mean a reduction in support, and that the government remains committed to its commitments to Ukraine.

At the same time, Scholz is being criticized because, according to some politicians, his government may focus on internal political considerations, in particular on the upcoming regional elections in East Germany. Critics believe that the proposed transition to international financing, which includes the use of frozen Russian assets, may be uncertain and insufficiently reliable.

Scholz, however, rejects these accusations and emphasizes that Germany continues to support Ukraine and does not change its position due to domestic politics.

What is Scholz afraid of?

Olaf Scholz’s cautious position regarding support for Ukraine is connected with the elections in East Germany. He seeks to avoid a backlash from voters in countries that have traditionally been skeptical of significant international aid spending.

Scholz’s critics believe that he is trying to reduce the cost of supporting Ukraine or shift the financial burden to an international fund so as not to irritate the electorate ahead of state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. These regions are traditionally more skeptical of international spending and may not approve of Germany’s large financial commitment to support Ukraine.

Thus, although Scholz officially assures that support for Ukraine will not decrease, critics fear that his decisions may be dictated by internal political considerations aimed at preserving electoral support in these regions.

In favor of the electoral mood of the eastern lands

We will remind you that these regions are part of the former GDR (East Germany) and traditionally have political attitudes that are somewhat different from the western parts of Germany. In the eastern lands, strong positions are often held by parties that are skeptical of the large level of government spending on international aid, including support for Ukraine.

Therefore, any decisions of the German government regarding the costs of supporting Ukraine may affect the electoral mood in these regions, which makes the issue of funding politically sensitive before the elections.

In the eastern states of Germany, such as Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, a certain part of the population has more skeptical or even pro-Russian views compared to the western part of the country. This is due to the relevant historical context: the regions were part of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), which had close political and economic ties to the Soviet Union. Many residents of the older generation have memories of the time when Russia was the main partner of the GDR. In some parts of East Germany, there is a certain disillusionment with relations with West Germany after the country’s reunification. This frustration is sometimes expressed in criticism of Western governments and institutions, including the European Union and NATO, which promotes a softer attitude towards Russia. Parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) or the Left Party (Die Linke) hold strong positions in these countries, which criticize sanctions against Russia and express skepticism about supporting Ukraine. Although these parties do not always openly support Russia, their views often differ from the federal government’s position on the Ukrainian issue.

It is worth noting that the views of the population differ greatly, and not all residents of the eastern lands have pro-Russian sentiments. However, these trends make the political situation in these regions more complex, especially in the context of support for Ukraine and policy towards Russia.

In defense of his party in the eastern lands

For Olaf Scholz and his party – the Social Democratic Party of Germany – the elections in the eastern lands are extremely important, because it traditionally has weak positions in these regions. As you know, state elections determine the composition of state parliaments (Landtags), which have a significant influence on local politics and can shape positions in federal politics through the Bundesrat (the upper house of the German parliament). A strong SPD performance in these elections could help strengthen the party’s position at the federal level and improve cooperation between the state and federal governments. Scholz is the chancellor of a coalition government made up of the SPD, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens. A poor performance by the SPD in the eastern lands could increase pressure on the coalition and lead to internal conflicts, which could make the country difficult to govern. In the eastern states, other parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party (Die Linke) hold strong positions, which take a more radical or government-sceptic stance. If the SPD fails to improve its results, it could increase the influence of the opposition, which is critical of Scholz’s policies, in particular on issues of support for Ukraine. The success or failure of the SPD in these elections will be seen as a signal to voters across Germany. The election may show how popular or unpopular the policies of Scholz and his government are, which will affect the overall political climate in the country.

Thus, it is important for Scholz to demonstrate that his party can compete in the eastern lands and achieve the best possible results to ensure the stability of his government and retain the trust of voters at the federal level.

The traffic light government lacks unanimity on the Ukrainian issue

The image of a traffic light is used to emphasize the specificity of the coalition, where each party has its own priorities, which sometimes leads to difficult compromises and different opinions within the government. This becomes particularly evident when discussing important issues such as budget spending or international aid.

The term “traffic light government” (German Traffic light government) is used in Germany to describe a coalition consisting of three parties: the Social Democratic Party of Germany (red), the Free Democratic Party (yellow), and the Greens (green). These colors correspond to the colors of traffic lights, which is where the name of the coalition comes from. Olaf Scholz is the chancellor of this coalition, which came to power after Germany’s federal elections in 2021.

In the coalition government of Germany, there are certain differences in approaches to supporting Ukraine:

Social Democratic Party of Germany supports Ukraine’s aid, in particular military and financial, but often approaches this issue cautiously, trying to avoid escalating the conflict with Russia. Social Democrats advocate diplomatic solutions and emphasize the need for international coordination. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) emphasizes that Germany will continue to support Ukraine, but at the same time seeks to maintain a balance between support and domestic political and economic considerations.

green is one of the most active parties in the coalition advocating strong support for Ukraine, including significant military aid. They emphasize the importance of supporting Ukraine in its struggle for sovereignty and democracy, as well as advocate strengthening sanctions against Russia. Green Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Berbok is one of the main supporters of active support of Ukraine in the international arena.

Free Democratic Party supports the provision of aid to Ukraine, including military aid, but emphasizes financial discipline and economic efficiency. Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) insists that new spending on support for Ukraine should be clearly financially justified and should not lead to an excessive burden on the federal budget. The FDP also advocates the use of international mechanisms, such as frozen Russian assets, to finance aid to Ukraine.

As we can see, there is no unanimity within the traffic light government. And these differences can lead to difficult negotiations within the coalition regarding concrete steps to support Ukraine. Moreover, the debate goes beyond established party views.

A fatal signal for Ukraine

Chairman of the Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee, Social Democrat (SPD) Michael Roth, in particular, expressed concerns about the government’s plans not to allocate additional funds for new military aid to Ukraine in future state budgets. He stated that this is a “fatal signal” for Ukraine. His comments were published by the Funke media group.

Even sharper criticism of Scholz’s position comes from parties that are not part of the coalition. Roderich Kiesewetter, CDU politician, d interview for Tagesspiegel expresses serious criticism of his plan to stop funding military support for Ukraine from the state budget. He declares that such a decision “de facto means that Ukraine is left to fend for itself.” Kiesewetter notes that the government lacks the political will to prioritize support for Ukraine during budget negotiations.

Critics point out that the unspecified aid to Ukraine is a “disguised abdication of responsibility.”