Hopes for peace, elections in Europe, the return of Trump: what a new political year has in store for us

In the new year, we all hope for an end to war, for a peace that will bring stability and recovery. Meanwhile, the political landscape of allied countries that support Ukraine is not standing still. The “super-election” 2024 is followed by the no less heart-breaking 2025, which also promises to be filled with electoral processes and important political decisions. Elections in a number of countries, changes in governments, internal political crises and new strategies — all this can have far-reaching consequences for the international situation, in particular for the position of the West in confrontation with Russia, as well as for the development of global political alliances.

The year 2025 will witness a series of events that will reflect both internal transformations and foreign policy challenges. Governments formed after difficult election campaigns will be forced to adapt to new realities, solving problems of international relations and economic stability.

What global political events will determine the course of 2025?

And they have already started…

The Council of the EU is chaired by Poland

From today, from January 1, 2025, Poland began to perform the duties of the chairman of the Council of the EU. For six months, she will be responsible for organizing the work of this key body and conducting its meetings. After a long period of tension in relations with the European Union, the new government of Donald Tusk emphasizes cooperation. Poland plans to use its presidency to strengthen ties between the EU and Ukraine. After Hungary’s not-so-constructive presidency, to put it mildly, everyone expects improvement.

On January 1, Romania and Bulgaria officially became part of the Schengen area after a long process that lasted 13 years. Earlier, in March 2024, they partially joined the zone due to the abolition of border checks at airports and ports. Austria, which initially opposed full entry due to migration concerns, lifted its veto after the three countries agreed to a deal on border protection. From now on, the Schengen zone includes 25 of the 27 EU countries, as well as Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

Trump 2.0

On January 20, at 12:00 p.m., the newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, will take the oath of office and deliver an inaugural speech to the American people. Experts fear that he will want to change the political system of the United States, significantly strengthening the power of the president. Despite the criminal charges, Trump won the 2024 election and now plans to prosecute his political opponents. We all remember the 24 hours during which Trump promised to stop the war.

In foreign policy, he remains unpredictable and sharp. Even the withdrawal of the United States from NATO during the Trump presidency is not excluded. In the field of trade, he plans to increase protectionism through high tariffs, which could negatively affect both international partners and the US economy.

Lukashenka’s re-election?

On January 26, presidential elections will be held in Belarus. True, there is a temptation to call them re-elections of the incumbent President Lukashenka, given the experience of “elections” and practices of suppressing protests in 2020. Currently, stability in Belarus is based on three key factors: repression, economic growth and the absence of war. The elections scheduled for the beginning of the year are designed to strengthen these foundations and reduce possible risks. What is it about? Why is the dictator in such a hurry? Winter is a less favorable period for mass protests, which is important given the experience of 2020. The artificial growth of the economy may reveal its weaknesses as early as 2025, which is why elections are held in advance. Incidents involving Russian drones threaten stability, and the regime wants to be re-elected before a possible crisis.

AI will become safer and fairer

One of the key events will be the AI ​​Action Summit in February in Paris, where governments, technology companies, academics and experts will come together to discuss how to advance artificial intelligence for the benefit of society. This will be an important step towards the development of global standards for AI that will meet the ethical and legal requirements of different countries. At the same time, Canada’s presidency of the G7, which begins in January 2025, will focus on the integration of new technologies into international politics, especially through joint efforts to develop safe and reliable tools for the use of AI. It is expected that this will strengthen the cooperation of the G7 countries and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), because the issues of security, control and development of technologies are important aspects of modern politics.

From a political point of view, these initiatives will also contribute to the strengthening of international alliances, in particular, in the field of technological competition, where countries try to avoid the monopoly of individual states in the development and implementation of AI. An important component will be the search for a compromise between the interests of developed and developing countries to ensure equal access to the latest technologies without creating new barriers in the global economic and political order.

Germany and Poland are preparing for elections

Early elections will be held in Germany on February 23. These elections are important for Ukraine, as Germany is our key partner in the European Union. Changes in the German government may affect EU policy on support for Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and energy security.

It is worth following the election campaigns of the main parties in order to understand the possible directions of future German politics.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is once again nominated by the Social Democrats for the position of head of government, from the Greens such a candidate is Federal Minister of Economy Robert Habek. CDU nominates Friedrich Mertz. AfD elects Alisa Weidel as its party leader. According to the latest polls, the CDU and the CSU have the upper hand, followed by the AfD and the SPD.

From 2 April 2025, citizens of European countries will need an electronic travel authorization (ETA) to travel to Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It will be possible to apply online from March 5, 2025. This innovation strengthens border controls after Brexit.

Elections for a new president will be held in Poland on May 18. Incumbent Andrzej Duda from the Law and Justice (PiS) party cannot run for office after two terms in office. Karol Navrotskyi, a representative of the right-wing populist and Eurosceptic line, is the candidate from PiS. The mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Tszaskowski, is running for the post of president from the liberal-conservative “Civic Coalition”. These elections are important because the president of Poland has the power to veto laws, and this veto can only be overridden by a three-fifths vote in parliament.

Both candidates support Ukraine, but the difference in their approaches lies in the style of politics: Navrotsky is more oriented towards political initiatives of a nationalist direction, while Tshaskovsky seeks to strengthen support for Ukraine through liberal and European mechanisms.

The Danish presidency and elections again in Europe

On July 1, Denmark will take over the presidency of the Council of the European Union from Poland. Climate, security and migration are expected to be important topics during Denmark’s presidency.

In late summer and autumn in several European countries as well will take place election.

Norwegians are expected to elect the composition of the parliament on September 8. In the previous elections, a coalition of centrists and leftists replaced the right-wing minority government.

Elections to the Chamber of Deputies will be held in the Czech Republic in September-October. The new government will be formed based on the results of the parliamentary elections, which will be held in the fall of 2025. The exact date of the elections will be announced by President Petro Pavel.

Political scientist Jiří Pege believes, that these elections may become decisive for the political landscape of the Czech Republic. “The Czech political scene is divided into two camps: those who support democracy and those who do not fully support it. The political situation in the country can change dramatically“, he noted. According to him, the decisive factor will be the negotiations after the elections and which parties will form a coalition. An alarming signal is that the populist and Eurosceptic ANO party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babis hopes to regain the majority. For the first time in the elections, Czech citizens will be able to vote by mail. Citizens living abroad or temporarily outside the Czech Republic can use this method if they registered in a special list at the embassy.

Also, in 2025, it is planned to hold elections for a new parliament in Albania.

Crises capable of causing early elections

It is also worth mentioning France, which is experiencing a permanent political crisis after early parliamentary elections last summer. Now it is difficult to predict how long the government of François Bayrou, who recently took over, will last. Under the French constitution, parliament cannot be dissolved within a year of an election, but that deadline expires in July 2025.

In addition, there are government crises that could trigger new elections in Slovakia, Bulgaria (which is set to hold its eighth general election in four years), and possibly Spain.

In November 2025, South Africa will chair the G20 summit for the first time. The group includes 19 countries, the European Union and, from 2023, the African Union. The G20 has long been a platform for the development of the international economic and financial system. However, other topics are now being discussed. Members of the group include industrialized nations such as Germany, Japan, Great Britain, and the United States, as well as developing countries, including Brazil, China, India, and Turkey. The G20 represents more than 85% of the world economy. South Africa is expected to focus attention on the growing number of hungry people in the world.