Political

Lost leadership? How Internal Crises Are Destroying Brazil’s Role in the BRICS

Brazil, the largest country in Latin America, found itself in the center of attention of the international community in connection with the beginning of its presidency in BRICS, which will continue throughout the current year. Despite the fact that Brazil is not involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war, its role in this context is specific, because BRICS includes the main aggressor – Russia, as well as countries that have not joined the sanctions against it.

This puts Brazil in an ambiguous position, because its efforts to maintain neutrality can be perceived as covert support for Moscow’s positions. Therefore, the question arises: will it not turn out that, following the principle “My enemy’s friend is my enemy”, will the international community perceive Brazil as complicit in indirectly supporting the aggressor? Such a perception can negatively affect its diplomatic image, especially in relations with the West and countries opposed to Russian aggression.

VRICS and Russian support: a challenge to Brazil’s neutrality

BRICS – the commonwealth of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – seeks to become a counterweight to the Western blocs, promoting multipolarity in the world. For Brazil, this position opens up opportunities to increase its influence, since the multipolar approach allows the countries of the Global South to gain more leverage in decision-making, which was previously concentrated in the hands of the West. Participation in BRICS gives Brazil a platform to lobby for reforms in international organizations, in particular, in the UN or the IMF, to more fairly take into account the interests of developing countries.

At the same time, Russia actively uses the BRICS platform to maintain economic ties with China, India and other partners, which allows it to partially avoid the consequences of Western sanctions. Brazil maintains a restrained position, trying to balance between the role of mediator and the interests of other members of the bloc. But won’t this “restraint” cause the BRICS policy to shift in a direction that would be more in line with the interests of those who are ready to ignore international sanctions? After all, as they say, “The fish is rotting from the head”, and the question remains: will BRICS weaken under the leadership of Brazil due to its uncertain neutrality?

For Ukraine, this situation creates certain challenges. On the one hand, Russia’s support from other BRICS members strengthens its position in the international arena. However, Brazil’s neutral position can be used as a bridge for dialogue with other Latin American countries. Rating drop of President Lula complicates his ability to be a powerful mediator, but at the same time can contribute to the opening of new opportunities for cooperation with Ukraine.

In the context of trade relations, Brazil remains a key importer of agricultural products, and this creates prospects for the export of Ukrainian grain, oil and other products. There is also potential for increasing the volume of Brazilian exports of coffee, meat and bioenergy technologies to Ukraine. Joint agricultural projects and the exchange of experience in sustainable agriculture can become important areas of cooperation, which opens the way to strategic partnership.

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The impact of domestic problems on the international role of Brazil

The idea of ​​creating BRICS arose back in 2001, when the term was first proposed by economists to describe large, rapidly developing markets. Under the leadership of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil became a founding member of the association in 2009 when the countries decided to formally institutionalize BRICS. This decision was based on Lula’s desire to strengthen the role of Brazil in the international arena, in particular by reforming global institutions – the UN and the IMF.

However, current challenges – rising inflation, inequality and social discontent – threaten Lula’s ability to effectively govern the country and realize the ambitious goals associated with the BRICS. President Lula is currently facing decline in popularity against the background of internal economic instability. Will the situation become a confirmation of the rhetorically famous “Good intentions lead to hell” if the weakness of Brazil’s domestic policy undermines the credibility of its leadership in BRICS?

Implications for Brazil’s BRICS presidency

The deterioration of the economic situation in Brazil has several reasons. Inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the population due to global economic problems and domestic instability. Social tension was exacerbated by income inequality and high unemployment. Brazil’s economy has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, exposing weaknesses in its health and social security systems. Growing public debt and underinvestment in important industries are also holding back economic development. This undermines Brazil’s international authority and may prevent it from implementing its ambitious plans.

Economic challenges are reducing Brazil’s ability to invest in global projects, undermining its role as a regional leader. However, even in the face of economic difficulties, Brazil continues to focus on strategically important projects – infrastructure development, investments in renewable energy and expansion of the agricultural sector. Among the main directions is the modernization of ports and railways, which will contribute to the expansion of the export of agricultural products. Attention is also paid to investments in solar and wind energy, in particular in the northern regions of the country.

Within BRICS, Brazil seeks financing from the New Development Bank for projects related to urban infrastructure, hydropower and transport logistics. These efforts are aimed at creating jobs, improving energy security and improving the country’s competitiveness at the international level.

Probably, the dominant players of the bloc – China and India – can take advantage of the weakening of Brazil to strengthen their own positions. China can strengthen its influence in the BRICS by more actively promoting its economic and financial initiatives, in particular, the use of the yuan in international payments. India, for its part, is seeking to expand economic cooperation with other members of the bloc while curbing China’s dominance.

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The weakening of Brazil also opens up space for increased Russian influence, as Moscow can use this moment to strengthen its position through increased economic cooperation with China and India, as well as through the promotion of its own initiatives in the BRICS. All these actions could potentially shift the balance of power in the bloc, making its policies less neutral and more inclined to support Russia.

Opportunities for Ukraine in the context of weakening Lula’s influence

Ukraine has a chance to improve cooperation with Latin America. Brazil, which is neutral in the war with Russia, can help establish a dialogue with other countries in the region. This gives Ukraine an opportunity to strengthen diplomatic ties through international platforms such as BRICS. Using Brazil’s help to establish contacts with such influential Latin American countries as Chile or Argentina, Ukraine can discuss joint economic and environmental projects, particularly in the agricultural sector and renewable energy.

Ukraine can export more of its agricultural products – grain and sunflower oil – to Brazil. At the same time, Brazil can supply Ukraine with its goods – coffee, sugar, meat – and bioenergy technologies. Joint projects and the exchange of technologies in the agricultural sector will help improve economic ties between the countries.

Brazil is actively working to preserve the Amazon, promising to reduce deforestation, restore ecosystems and protect the rights of local residents. It is a leader in the use of biofuels, in particular ethanol from sugar cane, which reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil is also developing solar and wind energy.

Its participation in international climate agreements, in particular, the Paris Agreement, and cooperation with the BRICS countries make it an important player in the fight against climate change. For Ukraine, this opens up opportunities to exchange experience in the field of renewable energy and joint projects.

Finding a balance between internal challenges and global ambitions

Admittedly, the decline in popularity of President Lula, multiplied by internal economic instability, casts a shadow over Brazil’s leadership ambitions in the BRICS. This not only undermines its position on the global stage, but also opens up space for other players who are ready to seize the moment to strengthen their influence. However, this challenge for Brazil also hides a new opportunity for Ukraine.

Brazil’s presidency of BRICS will be a crucial test of its ability to combine domestic reforms with the desire to play a key role in global processes. This is a kind of litmus test for her ambitions and readiness for real actions.

For Ukraine, this period should be an opportunity to strengthen its diplomatic presence in Latin America. In a world where geopolitical balances are changing, it is important not only to maintain one’s positions, but also to actively form new alliances. Taking advantage of the difficulties faced by Brazil, Ukraine can become a leader of ideas for the protection of the international legal order and a partner for countries that are looking for stability and new perspectives.

This is the moment when challenges become opportunities, and risks become signposts to new horizons for Ukraine on the world stage.

Tetyana Viktorova

 

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