Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko assessed the consequences of the ‘Easter truce’: the figures from the first week of May.

In the spring of 2025, the discussion about the expediency of temporary truces with the Russian Federation became acute again. After a short pause on Easter, which some international mediators called a humanitarian one, the Russian troops significantly intensified offensive actions. The truce, which lasted a little more than a day, not only did not stop hostilities in all areas, but also allowed the Russian Federation to regroup troops, transport ammunition, raise reserves and reduce the proportion of its own losses during the new phase of the offensive. Your assessment of this situation expressed Oleksandr Kovalenko, military-political expert of the Dmytro Tymchuk Ukrainian Center for the Study of Security Problems.

The expert believes that the consequences of the “Easter truce” have become extremely negative for the Ukrainian army and have already affected the operational map. At the beginning of May 2025, the situation at the front escalated: the Russian occupation forces (ROV) stepped up their offensive, seizing 61 km² of Ukrainian territory in the first week of the month. This is three times more than in the same period in April. Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that the “Easter truce”, which, although it lasted only a day, allowed the enemy to regroup and prepare for new attacks.

“During the period of the “ceasefire”, which lasted a little more than a day, the ROV not only did not stop hostilities in a number of areas, but were also able to accumulate resources, forces and means for the next period of intensive assault operations, consolidating the ranks, providing them without the risk of logistics with ammunition and other MTO, which led to an increase in captured territories with a decrease in the proportion of enemy losses. As a result, with an unchanged rate of losses, thanks to the “Easter armistice” of the ROV were able to increase the area of ​​captured territories threefold in the last week of April and the first week of May”. – noted the expert.

According to Kovalenko, during the truce, the ROV did not stop hostilities on certain areas of the front, while using the pause to accumulate resources, ammunition and strengthen positions. This enabled the occupiers to reduce their own losses during further assaults. In particular, in the first week of May, the loss of personnel of the ROV amounted to 8,780 people, which is less than the 9,520 deaths in the same period in April.

At the same time, the expert notes that the ratio of losses to occupied territory has decreased for the first time since the beginning of 2025:

“In 2024, the average rate of RBB losses in relation to captured territories was 129 bodies per 1 km². In January 2025, it was already 148/1 km². In March, the RBB ratio was 304/1 km². In April – 194/1 km²

And so, the first week of May shows another spike – the ratio is 143/1 km², which is even lower than the January figure of this year.

Since the beginning of 2025, RWV occupied 891 km² of the territory of Ukraine, while their losses amounted to 171,010 l/s or 191 bodies/1 km²”.

Kovalenko emphasizes that such “ceasefires” play into the hands of the Russian Federation, allowing it to regain strength and reduce losses during offensives. He concluded:

The trend of high losses of the DOM has been decreasing since the unilateral imposition of a “ceasefire” on Ukraine, which allows the DOM to improve its position on the battlefield and, after its termination, to intensify hostilities with a significant advantage. 

If we continue to show weakness and follow the occupiers’ lead, accepting their “ceasefire” conditions, the number of territorial losses will increase dramatically in the near future, while the DOM will bear much smaller losses than they should.”