“Our biggest problem is that the government allows its representatives to earn money from this war”: Serhiy Kryvonos on the situation in the country

After the start of a full-scale war, Ukraine entered a period of deep internal transformations, which combines intense struggle at the front, a crisis of confidence in the rear, strategic uncertainty and conflicts within the political environment. One of the topics that causes public debate is how efficiently and honestly the state system works in wartime. In this context, former Deputy Commander of the Special Operations Forces and Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Reserve Major General Serhiy Krivonos expressed made a series of critical assessments of the government’s actions and outlined, in his opinion, the key directions that should determine the strategy of resistance.

Regarding the state of affairs at the front, Serhiy Krivonos does not share pessimistic assessments and declares that Ukraine has sufficient potential to survive the war. He explains that the decisive factor in wars of this scale is not only the number of weapons or personnel, but the economic and organizational basis of resistance. The army, he emphasizes, always depends on the economy — both its own and the enemy’s.

“The state of the Russian army, no matter how numerous and well-armed it is, depends very much on the economy. Like the armed forces, and in general any army in the world. If our economy is replaced by material and technical assistance from Western countries, then the support of Russia’s allies is much less. Therefore, we must continue to systematically destroy the aggressor’s production, processing and transportation of gas, oil and other minerals. In this way, we will significantly reduce the infusion of money into the Russian military-industrial complex and in the economy in general. When the Russian army does not receive shells, drones, fuel and many other things in a timely manner, when Putin cannot pay his soldiers a lot of money for participating in battles on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy will lose his offensive capabilities.” – the general thinks.

Krivonos emphasizes that the key task is to systematically damage the facilities that form Russia’s economic ability to wage war — in particular, the oil and gas infrastructure. He draws attention to the fact that thanks to the strikes of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine and the State Security Service on such objects, the filling of the Russian budget from the export of energy carriers in the first quarter of the current year decreased by 25%. He cites this as an example of pressure tactics on the enemy’s economy working. At the same time, he notes that after such actions there were calls from Western politicians to refrain from such attacks, which, in his opinion, only confirms the correctness of the chosen approach.

Separately, Kryvonos draws attention to the need to clearly transfer the state economy, government bodies, enterprises and business to functioning under martial law, as provided for by the law on mobilization preparation and mobilization. He is convinced that without such a transition, the state will not be able to fully mobilize available resources and organize effective resistance. In his opinion, it is this structural mobilization that can provide Ukraine with a chance to win even in a protracted war.

In general, Kryvonos consistently defends the position according to which victory is possible only under the condition of internal discipline, economic mobilization, active opposition to corruption in power circles and systematic undermining of the enemy’s economic base. However, the authorities ignore practical recommendations that could be effective in wartime. He notes that he has experience that spans 32 years of service in the army, from private to general, and that the suggestions he makes are not personal guesses, but based on the proven practices of other countries that waged wars in the 20th and 21st centuries. The general emphasizes that he has a deep understanding of the principles of conducting resistance at various levels of state administration, but he does not see the desire of the state leadership to listen to these decisions.

Kryvonos emphasizes that society should not only state the government’s inaction, but also force it to act by various means of public pressure. The passivity of Ukrainians, who expect actions from above, is false, and that responsibility for security should be joint — both on the part of the people and on the part of the leaders. At the same time, despite formal democracy, attempts to limit freedom of expression are beginning to be recorded in the information space of Ukraine.

Regarding the situation at the front, Kryvonos believes that despite the preservation of the combat potential of both sides, the Russians still have the ability to carry out offensive operations, especially vulnerable are the junctions between the areas of responsibility of Ukrainian units. However, it is not only the enemy’s resource that is decisive, but Ukraine’s ability to maintain a stable rear. That is why it is necessary to immediately and systematically rebuild rear structures – logistics, transport and infrastructure protection.

Krivonos does not agree with the idea that time works for someone automatically. The advantage will be on the side of the one who admits mistakes and works on structural changes. The Ukrainian state has the potential not only to continue the defense, but also to win, but for this, effective and purposeful actions are needed. Russia has vulnerable points. Its weaponry potential is based on the import of critical components, mainly from China, as well as through third countries. That is why the Foreign Intelligence Service should focus on tracking supply chains, and not limit itself to declarative speeches and public meetings. He points to the inefficiency of a number of power structures that do not perform the functions provided for by their purpose. Departments of information and psychological operations, instead of a systematic information struggle with Russia, are engaged in counting likes under the posts of representatives of the authorities.

Krivonos notes that the Ukrainian side does not use its potential to influence internal contradictions in Russia itself. Ukrainian special services should launch informational and political waves that would shake the enemy’s society. Also, we do not have professional control from the responsible persons who should take care of the intelligence about weapons, logistics, routes of supply of Russian weapons. Instead, individual leaders of the security forces engage in off-duty activities unrelated to defense. Such a gap between duties and actual actions creates the conditions for failure.

In the matter of defense, the general draws attention to the lack of fortifications that should have been built in advance. The Russians have learned to avoid direct assaults and instead blockade cities, cutting off logistics. In view of this, the construction of engineering structures — tunnels, shelters, protected supply routes — is critically important, which will minimize losses from drones and missiles. He critically assesses the situation with the low-quality construction of defense lines and links it to corruption. In his opinion, the most dangerous thing is not only the irresponsibility of the performers, but the fact that they are covered by representatives of the authorities. This systematic misappropriation of funds to build defense infrastructure during wartime is a sign of a deep crisis of governance.

“Certain specific individuals are responsible for fortification. Their inaction or unprofessional activity is an area for the reaction of law enforcement agencies. Because it is known that irresponsibility breeds impunity, and impunity – chaos. Unfortunately, impunity is now a powerful feature of certain layers of power. Our biggest problem is that the government allows its representatives to make money from this war, including from the shoddy construction of fortifications. If money is stolen even from this, then what will be the conclusions?

Unfortunately, we still do not have defined priorities, where and what kind of money to spend. We siphon funds from our Western partners for the production of drones and at the same time do not use a huge amount of our own resources. For example, the money provided in the budget for the maintenance of the civil-military administrations of the occupied territories. This is more than ten billion hryvnias. For this amount, you can buy about 41-42 thousand pieces of smart drones for the tactical level.” – emphasized the general.

Kryvonos cites the example of funds provided in the budget for the maintenance of civil-military administrations of the occupied territories, which can be redistributed to drones. We are talking about the amount of more than ten billion hryvnias, for which it would be possible to purchase more than 40,000 modern tactical level drones. He also draws attention to the budgets of the largest cities — Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Odesa — and emphasizes that spending on strengthening air defense is symbolic.

“There is open information on the Internet about the budgets of our cities: Kyiv – 90 billion hryvnias, Lviv – 17 billion, Dnipro – 19, Odesa – 12, Kremenchuk almost 4. However, look at what percentage is provided for strengthening the air defense of these cities. You will be surprised, but there is practically nothing. In Kyiv, they can say: “We give five out of 90 billion for the logistical support of the Armed Forces.” Good. figure. But I am not asking about the Armed Forces, but about the anti-aircraft defense of the capital. That is why we must immediately review these budgets and cancel the items that are unclear during the war. Every penny must be taken into account and used exclusively for security and defense issues.” – believes Kryvonos.

The general cites the examples of the countries of the Second World War, which introduced strict economy of resources – the United States and Great Britain. Ukraine, as he notes, shows an imbalance: shopping centers are overflowing with goods, but funds are not spent properly on defense.

“Remember how the Western countries acted during the Second World War. Even in the United States of America, which officially entered the war after the events in Pearl Harbor, they switched to a card system that allowed them to take control of all resources, starting with rubber, non-ferrous metals, sugar, coffee, etc. None of the Americans died of hunger, but the citizens did not have extra. The same Great Britain, where it was a little more difficult to supply, because it is an island, and Germany waged a powerful naval and submarine war with them in 1938. Until 1955, consumption was limited there, because almost all the money went to victory. Now, look at the saturation of goods in our shopping centers and supermarkets. Are some positions necessary during the war?” – Kryvonos notes.

Separately, the general raises the issue of financial opacity, recalling the situation in 2022, when more than a billion dollars, allocated for the purchase of shells, disappeared. These funds have not yet been found, as well as the shells themselves. Kryvonos emphasizes that he does not use the word “stolen” because there are no legal conclusions, but he emphasizes: if it is not established where the money is, who is responsible and what exactly happened, society has every right to ask these questions publicly.

Serhiy Krivonos believes that war, as a historical phenomenon, does not change in its essence – only the tools change, but not the principles. The basis of successful resistance is not sporadic actions, but purposeful preparation of the entire state system for a prolonged conflict. This includes the fortification of territories, mobilization of the economy, work with the population, and simultaneous systemic damage to the enemy’s enterprises that produce weapons and logistical resources. These things are not new, they are based on the experience of previous wars and do not require the invention of the “bicycle”.

He agrees that the state was not prepared for a full-scale war, and emphasizes that the price of such unpreparedness turned out to be excessive. At the same time, he draws attention to the ineffectiveness of actions in a number of key directions: mobilization, international contacts, development of the defense industry, information security. Stories of defective ammunition, lost contracts and failures in communication with potential partners, he believes, are symptoms of deeper processes – the lack of a clear strategy and the dispersion of resources on the background of abuses.

In this context, Krivonos believes that Ukraine resembles a system that creates its own problems and then heroically tries to solve them. At the same time, society has the potential for self-cleansing if it is willing to honestly analyze mistakes and respond to them with action. He does not see the tragedy in the miscalculations themselves, if conclusions are drawn from them.

Kryvonos pays special attention to the concept of passion. It was these people who took responsibility at a critical moment and formed the basis of the resistance in 2014 and 2022. But their number is decreasing, and the state is not working to educate the next generations who could take on leadership roles. During all the years of independence, the authorities made no effort to educate the nation and avoid creating a society capable of being self-organized and armed in the event of a threat.

Kryvonos is skeptical about the rhetoric about “already won victory”. He believes that such thinking is a dangerous self-deception. Victory will be possible only if there is critical reflection, structural work on mistakes, and above all, a change in attitude towards one’s own duties in the rear. Millions of Ukrainian men have still not updated their data at the military commissariats, while narratives about evasion of mobilization are becoming popular. This is a direct consequence of many years of ignoring the educational function of the state. Currently, Ukrainian society is not the only one in understanding the duty to the state. While some citizens sacrifice the last, others withdraw from reality and maintain a neutral position. Kryvonos considers such polarity in the field of values to be one of the key obstacles to the formation of a mature nation. Citizens should stop being silent when they see lies and corruption and start living according to the principles of responsibility, solidarity and honesty.

As for skepticism about volunteerism and financial assistance to the army, the general points out that the argument “they will still steal” has become a massive and convenient excuse. But this is a flawed logic: if people want to live in a free country, they must act, even in the face of abuse, to change the system through pressure and demands on power, not through removal.

When asked whether Ukraine will stand up, Kryvonos answered: there is no choice. He gave the historical example of Winston Churchill’s speech on May 13, 1940, when the British prime minister promised nothing but “blood, toil, tears and sweat” and at the same time called for victory at any cost. According to the general, for Ukraine this is also not a matter of choice, but the only way to preserve statehood.

Serhiy Kryvonos expressed a personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of our editorial office.