In September, businesses continued to gradually improve their estimates of business activity. The main factors that contributed to the optimism of enterprises were the revival of domestic demand, the increase in the supply of goods, the stable functioning of the sea corridor and the increase in the volume of railway transportation.
This is evidenced data index of expectations of business activity (IODA), which is calculated monthly by the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to the latest data, the IODA rose to 48.7 in September 2024, compared to 48.4 in August.
However, as noted by the NBU, business continues to face certain limiting factors, including: attacks on critical infrastructure, worsening currency expectations, higher fuel excise taxes, labor shortages, and rising inflationary processes.
The most optimistic future activity was assessed by trade enterprises, which is explained by active consumer demand, a sufficient supply of goods and the expansion of supply chains.
“Trading companies confidently forecast growth in turnover and purchases, and also improved their estimates of stockpiles”, – the NBU noted.
Industrial enterprises also showed positive expectations thanks to stable consumer demand, increased production and improved logistics chains. They anticipate growth in production and new orders, as well as improved estimates of raw material inventories. At the same time, forecasts regarding volumes of unfinished production and stocks of finished products remain restrained.
