Rating Group survey: Ukrainians believe in victory and doubt the effectiveness of peace talks with Russia

It seems that the collective consciousness is getting used to the idea that the end of the active phase of the war does not mean a complete and permanent victory of Ukraine over the aggressor country. It is necessary to prepare for the fact that the treacherous “big brother” will not abandon its imperial ambitions, and over time, Russian aggression will recur, possibly more than once. That’s why the insistent phrase “if you want peace, prepare for war” does not lose its relevance.

Survey conducted this year by Rating Group supported by Carnegie (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace — CEIP), demonstrated the mass confidence of Ukrainians that only their own powerful weapons will save Ukraine from a new war. Our compatriots rely less on NATO. Although 77% are in favor of joining the North Atlantic Alliance, only half of them – 36% – believe that it will protect against a new Russian attack. Finally, only one in ten respondents believes that an agreement with Russia will protect against a new attack.

In the current year, Ukraine plans to increase the capacities of the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex sixfold, while last year it was possible to increase them threefold. Ukraine actively attracts external financing and increases its own budget revenues for security and defense.  Our state directs its efforts to the development of new technologies, modernization of production and improvement of product quality, actively cooperates with other states and international organizations to exchange experience and technologies. The development of air defense systems and the production of artillery ammunition are important. Despite the challenges, Ukraine continues to focus its efforts on the development of the defense industry.

Ukrainians believe in the future victory over Russia

The above-mentioned public opinion survey, conducted by the Rating Group company with the support of Carnegie, showed that Ukrainians firmly believe in their national cause, even if they sometimes have doubts about the path to victory.

The vast majority of Ukrainians do not assume the probability that the aggressor will win the war (the percentage of those who assume such a seditious opinion is only 5%). Half of the remaining respondents believe that Ukraine will win, approximately the same number are sure that the war will end with parity between the parties.

Regarding the territorial results of the war, 3 out of 4 Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will eventually liberate all its lands. A little more than half – 56% – hope that Ukraine will return some or all of its territories within the next year and that the war will end within two years (59%).

The optimism of the mature generation against the pessimism of the youth regarding the prospects for the development of military events

The study also demonstrated the difference in perception of the trajectory of the war and political preferences by older and younger generations of Ukrainians. Older Ukrainians stand out for their military optimism according to most indicators. They more positively assessed the current dynamics of hostilities and were more confident in the quick and final victory of Ukraine, more strongly supported the continuation of the struggle until the liberation of the entire territory, and for the most part did not support the idea of ​​negotiations with Russia.

At the same time, young Ukrainians, especially those under the age of 35, were mostly the most pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of victory and the most ready to compromise on the outcome of the war. Only two out of five people aged 18 to 25 supported the idea of ​​fighting until the final liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine up to the 1991 borders. Among the elderly, this percentage was 60%.

The share of Ukrainians who prefer to seek a compromise to end the war through negotiations, as opposed to continuing the war, decreased from 43 to 26 percent. Most of those who favored negotiations imagined Ukraine to be in a strong enough position to dictate its conditions to the aggressor country on all articles: regarding the complete removal of the Orks from the territory of Ukraine, the prosecution of Russian war ideologues for war crimes, the payment of reparations, etc.

The vision of Ukrainians regarding options for ending the war demonstrated an irreconcilable difference between their expectations and the demands of the aggressor. 83% of surveyed compatriots categorically disagree with the reduction of Ukrainian military capabilities as a condition for ending the war. Two out of three respondents do not agree with compromise solutions such as a ceasefire that freezes the current front lines, as well as Ukraine’s rejection of the prospect of joining the EU or NATO.

Ukrainians do not believe in the effectiveness of peace negotiations with Russia

The vast majority of Ukrainians do not believe in the decency of the Russian establishment and are sure that Russia will attack again at the first opportunity, even in spite of the signed peace agreement, in case of signing the last one. And that the very negotiations and the signing of the peace agreement are needed only as a postponement for the mobilization of resources for the further invasion of Ukraine.

Only 26% want our foreign partners to deploy their troops to protect Ukraine. But regarding the desire and readiness of foreign partners to fight with their own forces on behalf of Ukraine, the majority of respondents – 63% – have no illusions. And they consider it acceptable instead to supply long-range weapons, training and defense industrial support.

Tatyana Morarash