“Russia is preparing to fight in Ukraine for at least three more years”: forecast of analyst Oleksiy Kush
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, society and analysts have been constantly discussing the question: when will this war end and the peace that everyone is waiting for finally come? Despite the hope for a quick end to hostilities, the realities show that this war can drag on for years. Experts’ assessments indicate that Russia is preparing for a long-term war and is already building its plans for several years ahead. One of the most striking predictions is that 2025 will be the year of peak military confrontation, when military pressure from Russia will reach its maximum. Instead of reducing war spending, Russia instead plans to increase funding in preparation for a protracted conflict.
For forecasts financial analyst, economic expert of the Analytical Center “United Ukraine” Oleksiy Kushch, Russia intends to continue hostilities in Ukraine for at least another three years. This is confirmed by the three-year budget plan of the Russian Federation, which foresees significant expenditures for military needs. If the previous three-year budget predicted that the peak of military spending would occur in the current year — 120 billion dollars, which is equal to more than 5% of the country’s GDP, now the situation looks different.
According to the expert, according to the three-year plan, the peak military spending of the Russian Federation is expected in 2025 and will amount to 13.2 trillion rubles, or approximately 145 billion dollars, which is 6.2% of GDP. This means that next year, war spending will increase even more than in 2023. The current year will end with spending at $120 billion, as previously planned.
At the same time, according to the financial analyst, a sharp decrease in expenses is not expected in 2026 — they will remain at the level of 5.6% of GDP, which is almost equal to the current indicators. In 2027, this figure will decrease to only 5.1%, but in absolute terms the military budget will be the same 120 billion dollars. This stability of funding shows that Russia does not plan to reduce its military activity, but on the contrary, it seeks to maintain a high level of military spending for three years.
According to the expert, the structure of the military budget in 2025 will be divided approximately equally: about 60 billion dollars will go to the financial support of military personnel, and the same amount will go to weapons and ammunition. Russia’s goal is to create a group of troops numbering up to one million in the occupied territories of Ukraine in 2025. An increase in the number of the group after reaching this indicator is most likely not planned. After that, the recruitment of contract workers will take place only to replace retired military personnel and release those who were mobilized in the first wave of mobilization in the fall of 2022.
Therefore, Russia is planning maximum military pressure precisely for 2025, and then to maintain this level of tension in 2026-2027, if no format for ending the war is found. Three years of maximum pressure, unless a peace agreement or other options for cessation of hostilities are concluded.
“Russia plans the peak of military pressure for 2025 with the preservation of this peak tension during the period of 2026-2027.
Three years of peak pressure unless a format for ending the war is found.
It is clear that these are only plans, and we can only hypothetically assess their reality.
Theoretically, the Russian Federation can increase the military budget to 10% of GDP.
With the internal security sector (police, etc.), the budget will increase by 3.5 trillion and will make up 40% of the expenditure part of the Federal budget. – believes Oleksiy Kush.
This is the personal opinion of the expert and it may not coincide with the official position of the editors.
