Small changes in territorial control matter less than the overall balance of power, which analysts believe could shift in favor of Ukraine in the coming months
Soon, the Russian military will exhaust its combat capabilities and will be forced to stop the offensive in the eastern Donbas of Ukraine, according to Western forecasts of intelligence and military experts.
“There will come a time when Russia’s small gains will become unsustainable in light of the costs and it will need a significant pause to regain its capabilities.”, a senior Western official said on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
The assessments come despite Russia’s continued advance against outgunned Ukrainian forces, including Friday’s seizure of the city of Severodonetsk, the largest urban center captured by Russia in the east since the latest offensive in Donbas began nearly three months ago.
Now the Russians are approaching the neighboring town of Lysychansk, on the opposite bank of the Donets River. Capturing the city would give Russia almost complete control over Luhansk Oblast, one of the two regions or provinces that make up Donbas. Control of Donbas is the publicly stated goal of Russia’s “special military operation,” although the multi-front invasion launched in February made it clear that Moscow’s original ambitions were much broader.
The capture of Lysychansk is a problem, as it is on high ground, and the Donets River impedes the Russian advance from the east. So instead, Russian forces seem intent on encircling the city from the west, advancing southeast from Izyum and northeast from Popasnaya on the west bank of the river.
According to conversations with the Russian military, they are under pressure to bring all of Luhansk under Russian control by Sunday, possibly explaining last week’s escalation.
But the “creeping” progress depends almost entirely on the expenditure of huge amounts of ammunition, particularly artillery shells that fire at a speed almost beyond the reach of the world’s militaries to sustain for long, a senior Western official said.
Russia, meanwhile, continues to suffer heavy losses in equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the offensive, the official said.
Officials declined to offer a time frame, but Boris Johnson, citing intelligence assessments this week, said Russia would only be able to continue fighting for “the next few months”.
“Russia may reach a point where there is no more forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,” he said in an interview with the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung.
Russian commentators also note the problems, emphasizing the chronic lack of manpower.
“Russia lacks physical strength in the area of the special operation in Ukraine… given the line of confrontation with a length of almost a thousand kilometers (and more)”, – wrote Russian military blogger Yuriy Kotienok in his Telegram account.
He estimates that Russia will need 500,000 troops to achieve its goals, which will only be possible if there is a large-scale mobilization, a potentially risky and unpopular move that President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from taking.
Russia’s onslaught has already exceeded predictions that Russia’s offensive potential will peak by the summer. According to Ukrainian officials, the aggressive recruitment of contract soldiers and reservists has helped create between 40,000 and 50,000 troops to replace those who lost or were incapacitated in the first weeks of fighting. Russia has been hauling old tanks out of warehouses and bases across the vast country to be dumped on the front lines in Ukraine.
The Russians still have the upper hand over the Ukrainian forces, who are also suffering. Ukrainian officials claim that the number of their soldiers who die in combat reaches 200 per day. The Ukrainians have also almost completely run out of Soviet-era ammunition on which their own weapons systems are based, and are still in the process of transitioning to Western systems.
“Ukraine is running out of ammunition, prospects on the battlefield are diminishing. But conditions for Ukrainian forces are likely to improve only after the arrival of more advanced Western weapons, while conditions for Russian forces can be expected to deteriorate as they dig deeper into their stockpiles of old, obsolete equipment. At some point in the coming months, the Ukrainians will receive enough Western weapons that, most likely, they will be able to go on the counteroffensive and change the course of the war.”, said retired General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe who now works at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“I remain very optimistic that Ukraine will prevail and that by the end of this year Russia will be pushed back to the February 24 line,” he said, referring to the borders of the territories occupied by Russia in Crimea and captured Donbas. during hostilities in 2014 and 2015. “Now it is disgusting to be in the wake of all this Russian artillery. But I estimate that over the next few weeks the situation will develop in favor of Ukrainians.”
There are already signs that the supply of Western weapons is gaining momentum. Last week, the newly arrived French Caesar howitzers were filmed in action on the battlefield, and this week, the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, the first of the heavy weapons that Germany has promised to field.
On Saturday, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine published a video of the first firings of American HIMARS systems on the battlefield. Ukraine has lobbied the United States to agree to supply a sophisticated multiple-launch rocket system that would allow Ukraine to strike up to 50 miles behind Russian lines.
“It is difficult to predict the future, because so much is not known about the state and strength of the Ukrainian forces”, – said Mattia Nelles, a German political scientist who studies Ukraine.
According to him, the Ukrainians maintain a high level of operational secrecy, which makes it difficult to find out, for example, how many troops they still have in the Lysychansk region or the real level of casualties.
According to a Western official, another unknown piece of information is the volume of Russian artillery stocks, which Western intelligence agencies initially underestimated. Anticipating a short war in which the Ukrainian forces quickly folded, the Russians made no effort to ramp up production before the invasion, and while they probably have now, their defense industrial complex has no way of keeping up with the huge amount that Russia is spending artillery shells, a Western official said.
And while Ukraine’s forces are going through tough times right now, they are not in danger of collapsing, said Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), speaking on the Silverado Policy Accelerator podcast, Geopolitics Decanted.
The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian forces north of the city of Kharkiv and have made limited progress in a small offensive near the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine, helping to divert Russian resources away from the front in Donbas.
“The minor territorial gains that Russia is currently making are less significant than the overall balance of power on the battlefield. The most important part of the war is not these geographical points, because now it is a contest of wills, as well as a contest of material resources, who will run with equipment and ammunition , and from the best units first.Both of these forces are likely to be exhausted during the summer, and then there will be an operational pause.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian officials, if a sufficient amount of weapons and ammunition is received, Ukraine will be able to launch a counteroffensive and start pushing back the Russian troops.
If not, both sides will dig in to defend their positions and a stalemate will ensue, making the unlikely prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough impossible.
“You’re going to have two sides that aren’t looking for territorial advantage, but are on operational pause, focused on resupplying and liberating the front line, and then you’re going to be in a protracted conflict.” Kofman said.
