This winter, the Russian army plans to focus on capturing front-line Ukrainian cities, resorting to urban warfare. Such a strategy aims to reduce the impact of Ukrainian drones, which are actively used in open terrain, and to compensate for limitations in the use of Russian armored vehicles. Provided this information Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
As ISW notes, the Russian army tends to avoid fighting on open fields. The Ukrainian cities of Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove will be priority targets for Russian troops. In particular, they are preparing to launch an offensive on Pokrovsk, planning to approach it from the south and southeast after the capture of Selidovoy.
ISW analysts note that the regular actions of Russian troops near Kupyansk and Chasovoy Yar may indicate preparations for larger-scale winter operations planned for 2024-2025. According to estimates, control over such cities as Kupyansk and Chasiv Yar can seriously affect the strategic position of the front and create a threat to key defensive positions of Ukrainian forces.
Experts note that the recent advance of the Russians to these cities, although not an immediate threat to Ukrainian defense positions, may lead to a serious weakening of security in the relevant areas.
It is also reported that in the winter Russian forces intend to strengthen their capabilities, especially in the field of using drones. “Drone war” will be a key element of combat operations in this period. Despite the fact that the Russians have a significant artillery advantage, Ukrainian drones continue to be a significant obstacle to their advance. The Russians hope that better training of their units and equipment will allow them to more effectively counter attacks by Ukrainian drones.
According to ISW analysts, the Russian command considers urban battles more profitable for its infantry. High-rise buildings in cities can provide the military with better cover from Ukrainian drones compared to forests or open fields.
Russian authorities are also likely to seek to reduce the costs that inevitably arise when moving armored vehicles and infantry across open terrain. According to analysts, the Russian military command has decided that reducing the impact of Ukrainian drones and reducing the losses of its own equipment in urban battles is worth the significant losses that, most likely, will cause such grueling battles in the front-line cities.
