The telephone conversation between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is currently the subject of lively discussion among politicians and journalists, came as a surprise to the world establishment, but not to German officials and their partners.
As early as October 1, Scholz made it clear that he intends to resume contacts with Putin after a more than two-year hiatus. Then the press secretary of the Kremlin, Dmytro Peskov, refused the possibility of a conversation, referring to the lack of common topics. However, later Putin agreed to the communication, reserving the right to determine the time for the dialogue.
The fact that the initiative came from Germany gave Putin an advantage, because dependence on his position increases his influence in the negotiation process.
What goal did Scholz set for himself?
The “almost non-chancellor” – as he is called in Germany after the collapse of the traffic light coalition – intended to feel whether Putin is ready for peace negotiations in Ukraine. The call was made at an important time for world politics – after the US elections and before the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, scheduled for November 18-19.
On the official site German government received a message in which the federal chancellor strongly condemned Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine and called on President Putin to immediately stop hostilities and withdraw troops. He also emphasized the need for Russia’s readiness to negotiate with Ukraine in order to achieve a just and lasting peace. The chancellor emphasized Germany’s unwavering determination to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression as long as it takes.
Why does Putin need this call?
In Germany, as a result of the political crisis and the elections, which are approaching faster than expected, complex electoral processes are ongoing.
Political scientist Thomas Eger from the University of Cologne, commenting on these events to the publication PICTURE, notes: “Two or three parties in Germany say that we need to talk to Putin. This telephone conversation became a kind of proof, in the style: “You see, it’s possible!” What parties are we talking about? The Left Party (Die Linke) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have traditionally advocated a less confrontational approach to Russia. There are also factions within the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) that support dialogue with the Kremlin. This creates a field for political controversy, especially at a time when support for Ukraine appears as an important issue in German foreign policy. Political scientist Niko Lange believes that Russia’s goal is not only to determine political processes in the international arena, but also to weaken democracy in Germany itself. By spreading its narratives, the Kremlin creates new pretexts for internal political disputes and supports pro-Russian voices in parties such as the AfD, Die Linke and parts of the SPD.
In turn, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government are faced with the task of maintaining a balance between support for Ukraine, European unity and internal political compromises. However, such debates can weaken the government’s position and make it difficult to make decisions, for example, regarding military aid to Ukraine or sanctions against Russia. Russian influence, aimed at using parties that favor rapprochement with Moscow, may deepen polarization in German society. Some support a tough position towards the Kremlin, others see the sense in resuming dialogue.
You should not count on serious results from this conversation, notes If: “For Putin, this is just a tactical move. Even if he would like to participate in a peace conference, he will not announce it through Scholz, because he has no leverage, just like Joe Biden“.
Scholz opened Pandora’s box
Scholz’s call to Putin was critically received in Ukraine, although Zelenskyi was informed about the German Chancellor’s intentions in advance. In his traditional evening video address, he emphasized that Scholz had opened Pandora’s box. Contact with Putin as such lowers the level of isolationist politics, undermining international solidarity with Ukraine and creating a precedent for normalizing relations with the aggressor without making real concessions for peace. Zelenskyi emphasized that such steps can weaken international pressure on Russia and even give it the opportunity to manipulate the situation to its advantage.
Meanwhile, there was nothing spontaneous in Scholz’s call. Even before the collapse of the “traffic light coalition”, his conversation with Putin was agreed upon in a four-way format with partners during the stay in Berlin of US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. A week before the call, on the air of the ARD TV channel, Scholz announced his intention to talk to the head of the Kremlin by phone.
Scholz also spoke with Trump before calling Putin. In an interview with an authoritative German publication “Süddeutsche Zeitung” he admits that he was pleasantly surprised by the Republican leader’s more differentiated strategy for Ukraine than he expected. Scholz gained confidence in the readiness of the US for open diplomatic initiatives while maintaining its position: negotiations on peace in Ukraine only with the participation of Ukraine.
Currently, Scholz is planning to organize a peace conference like the peace summit held in Switzerland this summer, and involve Russia in it. The date of the new meeting of world leaders has not yet been announced.
Outrun Trump
There are quite favorable reviews of Scholz’s communication with Putin. International journalist Damian von Osten calls it is a game of preemption, the meaning of which is to prevent the overly straightforward and emotional Trump from dictating his terms for ending the war in Ukraine. He believes that Scholz clearly realized during the war: Putin is oriented towards a hegemonic policy, so it is necessary to change the approach to the security of Germany and Europe. According to Scholz’s office, during a phone call with Putin, he called for negotiations, noting that none of the goals of the Russian attack had been achieved. Damian von Osten calls the fact that Scholz, not Biden, was the first to tell Putin about the negotiations as an important and correct step.
Damian von Osten finds other advantages of the German government’s communication with Russia. He considers it important that Germany publicly inform the Russians how many hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have already died. She clearly and unequivocally stated that NATO is not a threat to Russia, that the war does not correspond to the interests of the Russian population. Here, the Federal Government of Germany still has considerable potential to pursue its political line.
The reaction of the Kremlin
The Kremlin said that the conversation took place at the initiative of Germany. Putin told Scholz that a potential agreement on Ukraine should be based on “new territorial realities” and take into account the causes of the conflict. “Possible agreements should take into account the security interests of the Russian Federation, take into account new territorial realities and, above all, solve the main causes of the conflict“, the Kremlin said in a statement. It is also reported that Putin reminded the chancellor that the current crisis is a consequence of NATO’s long-term aggressive policy. The Russian president emphasized that the Russian side has never given up on negotiations and remains ready to resume the dialogue that was suspended by Ukraine.
So, the phone conversation between Scholz and Putin became a rather controversial diplomatic move, in which different interests and challenges were intertwined. This German initiative not only opened up new opportunities for negotiations, but also intensified internal political discussions about the feasibility of dialogue with the Kremlin. Despite criticism and mixed reactions, Scholz’s move demonstrates Germany’s willingness to actively engage in global conflict resolution, although the question of whether this will bring peace closer remains open.
