Germany’s role as Europe’s first economy is crucial to support Ukraine, but this support remains uncertain due to complex internal and external challenges. Political disputes, energy dependence on Russia and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation present Berlin with a difficult choice between national interests and international obligations.
In this context, a breath of fresh air for the progressive community was the criticism of the own government for its indecision on the issue of support for Ukraine by German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock, which indicates differences within the government coalition and between the main political parties. IN POLITICO interview she noted that Germany has lost its status as a leader in the formation of peace policy in Europe, which deeply saddens her.
How the upcoming elections affect the German political situation regarding aid to Ukraine
Burbok emphasized that the current election campaign in Germany has a significant impact on foreign policy decisions. Political parties change their positions depending on the mood of the voters in order to strengthen their ratings. The question of supporting Ukraine becomes a tool of internal political struggle. Some parties use this to mobilize voters, offering different funding scenarios or emphasizing the need to reduce foreign policy spending.
Previous governments have also come under fire from Berbock for making mistakes by contributing to Germany’s energy dependence on Russia through the Nord Stream 2 project. They justified it with economic benefits and stable energy supplies, but ignored the political risks. An underestimation of the threat from the Kremlin and an overconfidence in “dialogue” with Russia increased dependence on Russian gas, which limited Germany’s ability to respond to geopolitical challenges, including the war in Ukraine.
Today, this dependence has serious consequences for German politics. Abandoning Russian gas requires significant efforts to diversify energy sources and invest in renewable energy sources. In addition, criticism of previous governments increases political tension within the country, as the current government is forced to correct the miscalculations of its predecessors. This creates additional pressure on the government coalition, which must find a balance between the need to ensure energy security and the fulfillment of international obligations to EU and NATO partners.
On the eve of the election, the Green Party, to which Burbok belongs, has the support of 14% of voters, trailing the leader of the race – the Conservatives. Even so, Burbock called for increased defense spending due to Europe’s growing security challenges. She believes that strengthening the military capabilities of Germany and the EU is important for stability on the continent, especially in the context of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Burbock emphasizes that defense spending should be seen as an investment in Europe’s long-term security, not a burden.
The positions of Germany’s leading political forces regarding support for Ukraine differ significantly. The Social Democratic Party of Germany, headed by Chancellor Scholz, emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between supporting Ukraine and ensuring the interests of its own citizens. Yes, Scholz stated, which will not support a new aid package for Ukraine worth 3 billion euros without additional borrowing, which has caused a political impasse.
Scholz emphasized that Germany cannot increase financial aid to Kyiv by reducing spending on social programs or other internal needs. At the same time, he noted that supporting Ukraine remains a strategic priority for ensuring stability in Europe. According to the chancellor, any expansion of aid should be accompanied by a thorough analysis of its impact on the country’s economy, in particular on the well-being of the middle class. This approach is designed to ensure citizens’ trust in government decisions in the field of foreign policy. For the SPD, the welfare of German citizens remains a priority, even if this means certain restrictions in foreign policy activity.
At the same time, the Christian Democratic Union takes a more decisive position regarding support for Ukraine. CDU leader Friedrich Merz criticizes the government for insufficient military and financial aid to Kyiv, believing that Germany should take a more active role in countering Russian aggression.
Mertz emphasizes that insufficient support for Ukraine undermines confidence in Germany among its European partners and NATO allies, as it does not live up to expectations regarding leadership in the defense of shared democratic values. In his opinion, the lack of decisive action on the part of Germany can negatively affect its international authority and create a vacuum in regional security that can be filled by other forces, primarily Russia or China.
An alternative approach to financing aid to Ukraine was proposed by the Free Democratic Party. Finance Minister Christian Lindner suggests using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine in order to avoid an additional financial burden on the German budget. Lindner emphasizes the importance of a country’s financial stability, especially given the economic challenges caused by war and inflation.
He opposes increasing the national debt, believing that it could increase the tax burden on citizens and weaken confidence in government policies. This approach reflects the desire of the VDP to find a compromise between Germany’s international obligations and the protection of the interests of its economy.
The far-right party “Alternative for Germany” (AdN) opposes any military aid to Ukraine. They believe that resources should be focused on internal economic problems – inflation, the energy crisis and social inequality.
AdN emphasizes that supporting Ukraine does not correspond to the interests of the Germans, especially in the eastern regions, which have closer ties with Russia. The party uses anti-war and economic isolationist rhetoric, which adds to its popularity among voters dissatisfied with current government policies.
They also criticize the increase in defense spending, believing that it can negatively affect the well-being of ordinary citizens. Their position resonates with a section of the population, which strengthens support for AdN, which, according to the latest data, has 21% of support ahead of the elections scheduled for February 23.
Octopus tentacles – the Russian Doppelganger campaign – in the European infospace
At the same time, the CeMAS analytical center informs about intensifying Russian disinformation aimed at supporting AdN, undermining the main German forces and creating economic unrest. CeMAS discovered hundreds of German-language posts on the X social network that show Russia’s Doppelganger campaign, launched after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, is spreading fake news to reduce Western support for Kyiv.
Recent publications blamed the Green Party for the worsening economy, criticized Chancellor Olaf Scholz for military aid to Ukraine, and expressed support for AdN. The posts, often created through fake account networks, have garnered more than 2.8 million views.
Last month, Elon Musk, the owner of the X social network, expressed his support for AdN, and its leader Alisa Weidel participated in his public chat. Such activity contributes to the strengthening of the party’s positions, which may complicate the formation of a coalition after the elections.
Against the background of these events, the German authorities created a task force to protect against foreign interference. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country warned about the activity of the Doppelganger campaign back in June of last year. Given the growing information pressure from Russia due to Germany’s support for Ukraine, the government is trying to counter disinformation and ensure stability before important political events.
Saving a drowning person is the work of the drowning person himself
Annalena Burbok expressed readiness to cooperate with the US, despite possible difficulties, and optimistically assessed potential changes in international politics, including opportunities for Europe against the background of instability in the US. Due to the growth of geopolitical challenges, primarily Russian aggression and the strengthening of China, cooperation with Washington remains a key element of German foreign policy. The US is expected to continue to support Europe’s security architecture and deter the Kremlin’s aggressive actions.
At the same time, Annalena Berbok called for strengthening European autonomy in security matters, stressing the importance of reducing dependence on the US in ensuring Europe’s defense. She believes that the Old World should be able to independently respond to regional challenges and crisis situations. This includes the creation of more powerful defense structures, increased cooperation between EU member states and the development of joint military initiatives.
Tetyana Viktorova
