In recent days, the world media has reported on the increase of Turkey’s military presence on the border with Syria. Yes, The Wall Street Journal informs, that Turkey is pulling local militias, regular troops, commandos and artillery to the Syrian border. These alarming signals point to Ankara’s possible preparations for a large-scale invasion of territory controlled by the US-backed Syrian Kurds.
The main site is located near the strategic Syrian city of Kobani, which is predominantly Kurdish and has important symbolic significance. In 2014-2015, the city became the center of a successful Kurdish resistance against ISIS militants. Kobani is currently controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, the main US ally in the fight against terrorist groups in the region.
In early December, the situation in northeastern Syria became more dangerous when Turkish troops deployed there. These events remind military operation 2019 Peace Source, which aimed to dislodge the Kurdish YPG units linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party terrorists and create safe zones for Syrian refugees. Then, in the Syrian province of Idlib, more than 30 Turkish soldiers were killed as a result of an air strike, probably carried out by the forces of the Assad regime. Turkey responded with massive strikes on Syrian government targets using aircraft and drones. This led to a humanitarian crisis, displacement of people and tension in relations with the US and Russia.
For reference: YPG – People’s Defense Units – Kurdish paramilitary forces in Syria, founded in 2011. They are fighting for Kurdish autonomy and have played a key role in the fight against ISIS. While the U.S. considers the YPG an ally, Turkey classifies them as terrorists because of their ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an armed struggle against Turkey since 1984.
The Kurdish question has a long history
It so happened that the Kurds are the largest ethnic group without their own state, living in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire a century ago, international agreements called for the creation of Kurdistan, but this promise was not fulfilled. The Lausanne Treaty of 1923 divided the Kurdish territories between several states.
In Turkey, Kurds have long faced government assimilationist policies that banned their language and culture. This led to the emergence of armed movements, in particular the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been fighting for autonomy or independence since the 1980s.
In Syria, Kurds were also discriminated against, many were denied citizenship before the start of the civil war in 2011. The conflict allowed the Kurds to strengthen their position and create a de facto autonomous administration in the northern part of the country.
The role of key players in the region
A Kurdish chess game is played by several players, each of whom pursues his own interests. Yes, Russia was an important ally of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. She supported his regime and opposed any actions that might harm him, including Turkish intervention. The Russian Federation also tried to maintain a balance by mediating between Turkey, Syria and the Kurds.
Iran, in turn, supported the Assad government through a strategic alliance and a desire to maintain its influence in Syria. Tehran opposes a Turkish invasion because it weakens its allies and complicates its own ambitions.
Israel is closely monitoring the situation, in particular the growth of Iranian influence in Syria. Although the Promised Land does not intervene directly, it does conduct airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria to reduce the threat to its own security.
The Saudis oppose Iranian influence and support some Syrian opposition groups. Riyadh also criticizes Turkish expansion, fearing an increased role for Turkey.
Finally, the US supports Kurdish forces in the Syrian Democratic Forces as a key partner in the fight against ISIS. But their relations with Turkey, a member of NATO, are complicated by different approaches to the Kurdish issue.
The Kurdish question is a Pandora’s box between Turkey and NATO
As a NATO member, Turkey is often the subject of controversy over its military operations in Syria. Many members of the alliance believe that Turkey’s actions run counter to NATO’s shared values, particularly because of attacks on Kurdish forces working with the West in the fight against ISIS.
The US has repeatedly expressed concern over Turkey’s actions, adding to tensions between the two countries. This also applies to Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, which caused outrage in the Alliance. Other NATO countries – France and Germany – also criticize Turkey’s actions and call for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
At the same time, Turkey considers its actions legal, as they are aimed at protecting national security. This presents NATO with a difficult choice: how to preserve the unity of the Alliance, given the differences between its members.
The US representative noted that Washington is closely monitoring the situation and calls on Turkey to exercise restraint. The leader of Syria’s Kurds has expressed his concern to Donald Trump, warning of an imminent invasion and urging him to influence Turkish President Erdogan to halt hostilities.
On the same day, Trump said that Ankara had made an “unfriendly maneuver” by minimizing its own losses. The US president-elect made a controversial statement alluding to Turkey’s role in the takeover of power in Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a radical Islamist group linked to al-Qaeda. Recognized by the civilized world as a terrorist organization, it fights against the Assad regime and other groups.
Washington called on Ankara for a diplomatic solution, warning of possible consequences for regional stability.
Why Erdogan is supported by the majority
Turkey’s military operations are causing mixed reactions. The majority who support President Erdogan approve of the government’s actions, considering them necessary to ensure national security, especially nationalists who see Kurdish formations as a threat.
However, there are also critics. Opposition parties and human rights activists say the military action is increasing tensions and creating economic problems. Some citizens worry that military spending will deepen a financial crisis that is already affecting living standards.
Erdogan uses military action to consolidate his power by appealing to patriotism and protection against terrorism, but such policies polarize society even more.
The impact of the conflict on the economy of Turkey
The escalation of the conflict has a bad effect on Turkey’s image as a tourist mecca. The tourism sector may suffer due to a reduction in the flow of tourists, especially from Europe and the USA.
It is quite understandable that political instability and military spending scare away investors. Foreign companies avoid risky regions, which reduces foreign direct investment. Sanctions or economic pressure from Western countries may make it difficult to export Turkish goods.
Prolonged military operations significantly increase defense costs. This creates an additional burden on the country’s budget, which already has a deficit. Inflation and the depreciation of the lira deepen the financial crisis, which affects the entire economy.
Possible development scenarios
According to experts, several scenarios of the development of events are possible. It is possible that Turkey may launch a major operation to create a buffer zone along the border with Syria. But this can cause strong international pressure and new sanctions. Another variant of the development of events – Ankara may try to negotiate with Moscow, Tehran and other regional players to avoid a direct conflict. Finally, it is possible that instead of a full-scale operation, Turkey will limit itself to pinpoint strikes on Kurdish positions to achieve short-term goals.
A large-scale offensive by Turkey may have serious consequences: thousands of civilians will be forced to flee, military clashes between Turkish troops and the Syrian Democratic Forces are possible, which will complicate security and the fight against the remnants of ISIS. It will also worsen Turkey’s relations with the US and NATO countries.
Turkey opened a border crossing for refugees
German wave informsthat after the overthrow of the bloody Assad regime in Syria, a new stage of settlement of the situation begins. Turkey, which has become a refuge for 3 million Syrian refugees, announced the opening of the Yayladagi border crossing, closed since 2013 due to hostilities. This point will be important for Syrians to return home.
The turning point was the fall of the Assad regime. Turkey has taken responsibility for the return of the more than three million refugees it took in during the war years.
The opening of the Yayladagi checkpoint is part of a strategy to allow Syrians to return home safely, allow refugees to return to normal life, and reduce pressure on Turkey’s domestic resources.
For many Syrians, this moment is both sad and joyful. Many of them lost their relatives during the earthquakes last year, which also became a motive for returning home to rebuild their lives in their homeland. However, the return is associated with new problems – reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure and security issues.
The EU supported Turkey’s efforts to stabilize the situation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to visit Turkey in the near future to discuss cooperation on the reconstruction of Syria.
This initiative by Turkey can become an important example for other countries in the region and demonstrates the efforts of the international community in solving the humanitarian crisis that has lasted more than a decade.
Tetyana Viktorova
