The world is plunged into an unprecedented demographic crisis. Birth rates in many countries are plummeting, threatening the very existence of humanity as we know it. It is hard to imagine, but in a few generations, the population may decrease by 50%, and in some countries, by up to 80%. These numbers are shocking, but real, and they indicate that catastrophic changes are coming. What will happen to economies, infrastructure, technology and culture when there are far fewer of us? This is an issue that we must begin to address now, before it is too late.
Ex-president of the Kyivstar company, founder of the educational project Kontor Pi Petro Chernyshov expressed himself in this regard:
“Today I will tell you a frightening story about how the population of many countries is declining catastrophically. First, about the so-called reproduction rate – the number of children per woman needed to keep the population unchanged – is 2.1 (that is, a little more than two children per family ).Only then the number of people in the country does not change.
But in many countries of the world, we are significantly below this indicator. Now a little (tricky) arithmetic: a birth rate below 1.6 means 50% fewer people after three generations. This is less than 100 years, but for simplicity we say “in 100 years”. What if the birth rate falls below 1.2? We are looking at an 80% population decline in 100 years.
Give yourself time to realize this.
Current birth rates:
USA: 1.64.
China, Japan, Poland, Spain are all below 1.2.
South Korea: only 0.68. This is a potential population reduction of 96%. And this is the most famous catastrophic birth story. Already today, 1 out of every 3 women in South Korea is childless.
Ukraine is expected to see a 76% decrease in population over the next 100 years.
Here’s what we might be looking at in the next 100 years:
USA (-47%).
France (-46%).
Russia (-65%).
Germany (-68%).
Italy (-78%).
Japan (-81%).
China (-88%).
Thailand (-89%).
Turkey, Great Britain, Mexico and other countries are following the same path.
People used to think that low birth rates in Asia would stop at at least 1.1 children per woman. But no. South Korea (population 50 million) now has 0.68. And other countries are following her.
People have not yet realized what this means for our civilization, industrial society, and the course of history, because it is too vast to comprehend.
And if you’re wondering how things are going in Ukraine, you don’t need to Google it. According to 2020 data, Ukraine is expected to experience a 76% population decline over the next 100 years.
All indications are that our civilization is on the brink of collapse—perhaps by the year 2200.
And in no realistic sense is it numerically impossible to fix it with immigration. You can’t “make up the difference” with immigration when it comes to losing more than 50% of one generation. Especially if it is China or the EU, where the deficit is measured in hundreds of millions. Although, theoretically, in a small country, immigration can help – if people are ready for a radical discovery.
And here the question arises: for whom are we rebuilding the energy network? Who are we creating artificial intelligence for? For whom do we invent new vaccines, super-effective drugs, ingenious gadgets and so on?
These are mass extinction numbers.
As societies age and populations shrink, how do we prepare for a future with fewer people? What will happen to economies, cultures and communities when there are far fewer of us?
We need to start asking the hard questions now. Many leading thinkers are already doing this — I love that Elon Musk is openly saying that the fertility problem is the No. 1 problem for civilization.”
