The end of the Orbán era: youth and the Tisza break the political monopoly in Hungary (continued)

Hungary boils. What had been accumulating for years under the armor of Orbán’s regime exploded the other day in the heart of Budapest. Tens of thousands of people came to the square – not just to protest, but to announce the verdict of the regime. “The end of Orban!” – this time it sounds like the beginning of the finale.

Peter Madyar, yesterday a man from Orban’s circle, today challenges him directly. His batch of Tisza for the year became a symbol of change and hope. While the old regime crumbles under the weight of inflation, corruption and international disgrace, the innovator Magyar takes to the square and says aloud what millions are whispering: “The time of lies is over.” The country is waking up. The youth, tired of theft, lies and endless ideological winter, are coming forward. They are not afraid – because behind them is not just a slogan, but a new Hungary that wants to return to Europe, to freedom, to the truth.

In response, Orbán, who is already stiff from his long stay in power, drops his masks. “Purge”, “bugs”, “shadow army” – this is his actual political jargon. He is preparing to suppress the opposition, journalists, anyone who dares to tell the truth. He turned away from Europe for good – now Moscow is closer to him and the image of the enemy in everyone who thinks freely.

How Orbán became the permanent leader of Hungary: the path from a liberal to the architect of an authoritarian system

This is an interesting detail: Victor’s father, Dzozo Orbán, during the times of the Hungarian People’s Republic, when the country was under the control of the USSR, hugged the position of an ideologist in the ruling Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party, which was completely oriented towards Moscow. Later, at the end of the 1980s, when the market and democratic transformations began in the state, Dyozo became an entrepreneur and in a short time increased his fortune, becoming a billionaire. So the Orbán family has not only political influence, but also serious financial resources.

It is worth noting the moment when entered Viktor Orban himself entered politics. He is a lawyer by profession, a graduate of the Faculty of Law of Budapest University. Young, full of ambition, he witnessed rapid changes in the country and decided not to lose the chance to make a career. In 1988, Orbán joined the creation of Fidesz, a youth liberal initiative at that time. The new movement quickly gained support, especially after the collapse of the Hungarian communist regime in the late 1980s. In the first democratic elections, Viktor became a member of the parliament and continued to remain the leader of this force.

Remarkable flexibility of Orbán and his political forces, which skillfully passed over from the ideas of democratic reforms to protecting the interests of the state in order to win electoral bonuses. In 1998, Orbán headed the government for the first time, having formed a coalition with several parties. After the defeat in the 2002 elections, he and his “Fidesz” gradually took a course towards conservatism and nationalism, which brought them back to power in 2010. Since then, Orbán and his team have repeatedly won parliamentary elections, maintaining the leadership of the country.

There is another factor, less visible, but very important – the gradual establishment of political control. The longer Orbán remains in power, the more important structures – from courts to election commissions – come under the influence of his entourage. This enables him to hold positions and gently push out the uncomfortable opposition, which causes discontent in the European Union. In addition, the government controls most of the media both in Hungary and abroad, where Hungarian communities live.

Will the Orbán era end in the 2026 elections?

Probably the 2026 elections in Hungary will become a critical point where it will be decided whether Orbán’s 15-year era will come to an end, or whether his regime will once again hold on to power. Party Tisza already became a serious threat to Fidesz.

But Orbán plays by his own rules. In order to maintain power, “Fidesz” already changed boundaries of a third of electoral districts. In particular, in Budapest, where Tisza has strong support, the number of constituencies was reduced from 18 to 16. These changes were approved by the parliament last December with the obvious goal of minimizing the influence of the opposition and increasing the weight of rural regions where Fidesz has a stable base. This is a direct manipulation of the electoral rules to gain an advantage in a situation where real support is falling.

According to the latest surveys of the Research Center 21, Tisza is gaining 42%, “Fides” – 40%. The advantage is minimal, and any rule changes could alter this delicate balance. Much like the 2024 elections in the USA, when the electorate of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were almost level, and the result of the race was decided by minor coincidences and a few percent of the vote.

There are several scenarios of the development of events. The first – Tisza wins the election, gets a majority and forms a government. This will be a revolution for Hungary, which will get a new course and return to democratic standards. The second – “Fidesz” holds power by using changes in constituencies, administrative resources and control over the media. The third scenario is a coalition government where Tisza joins forces with other opposition forces to break Orbán’s monopoly.

Brussels vs. Orbán: Will Hungary withstand the course of isolation?

Hungary is rapidly approaching political isolation. Brussels is no longer ready to turn a blind eye to Viktor Orbán’s authoritarian practices. Hungary for systematically violating the principles of the rule of law lost more than 1 billion euros of European funds. And this is just the beginning. About 21-22 billion euros are at risk. These are funds frozen due to corruption scandals, violations of human rights and restrictions on democratic freedoms. This is the EU’s direct response to Orbán’s policy of suppressing the opposition and independent media.

But financial pressure is only one of the strategies. Brussels already submitted lawsuit to the Court of the EU against Hungary due to the “sovereignty law”. This law, according to Orbán, is designed to protect the country from “foreign interference”, but in practice it gives the authorities the ability to prosecute any organizations financed from abroad. This is an obvious blow to independent media, public organizations, and activists, whom Orban sees as the main threat to his regime. Brussels declares, that this law grossly violates the rights to privacy, freedom of expression and association.

The situation has reached an absurd point. Last October, amid these sanctions and lawsuits, Hungary chaired an EU meeting on democratic standards. This caused a real political scandal and outrage among member states. Budapest, which became a symbol of authoritarian practices in Europe, tried to dictate the standards of democracy. It looked as a mockery that deepened the conflict between Hungary and Brussels.

The conclusion is obvious. Brussels is ready for war with Orbán, but is Orbán himself ready for it? The regime begins to crack under the pressure of sanctions, financial losses and international criticism. He is not going to retreat, but resources and opportunities are melting rapidly. In 2026, Orbán will either lose power or lead Hungary to complete isolation.

Hungary at the crossroads: choosing between Orbán’s past and the European future

Hungarian society is divided. This is not just political competition, it is a deep chasm that has divided the country into two camps. On the one hand – the rural population, older generations, people for whom Orbán symbolizes stability, order and preservation of national identity. It is here that Fidesz maintains its strongest support. These people believe in narratives about an external threat, are afraid of losing their culture in the ocean of globalization and are sure that Orbán is a sincere defender of their way of life. They are afraid of changes and believe in a “strong hand”. The Hungarian periphery has always stood aside from European trends.

On the other hand – cities, youth, educated intelligentsia, business, IT sector. These are people who see their future in Europe, seek change, transparency and fair competition. This is where Tisza finds its support. They are not afraid of changes – they demand them. And it’s not just talk. According to an October survey by the Publicus Institute, Tisza overtook Fidesz, receiving 24% support against 23%. For the first time in 18 years, Orbán is losing his monopoly on power.

But this split is not just statistics. This tension is felt in every political debate. This is a conflict of generations, values, vision of the future. And this conflict will determine what Hungary will be like after the 2026 elections. Polarization of society leads to radicalization. On the one hand, the government, which is afraid of losing control, on the other – the opposition, which seeks change. The streets of Budapest more than once became arena of confrontation. Young people who go to rallies do not just demand changes – they demand them for themselves, for their future.

But the main battle is not only for parliamentary mandates – the very vision of Hungarian identity is at stake. Orban positions himself as the last defender of “Christian Europe” and opposes Hungary to the West, migration, and globalization. His narrative is simple and clear: “We Hungarians are fighting for our land, customs and faithIt is on this that his support rests among those who fear integration into the modern world.

But this narrative is not just words, but a tool of power. He justifies restrictions on independent media, pressure on the opposition, curtailment of freedoms. All for the protection of “traditional values”.

Instead, Tisza offers a different answer to the question of identity – through European integration, openness to change, combining tradition with modernity. Their message is the strength of the nation in reforms, the fight against corruption and the restoration of democratic institutions. This is not a denial of Hungarian identity, but its new evolution.

…The 2026 elections could become a point of no return for Hungary. Either the country will break out of the grip of autocracy, or Orbán’s regime will tighten the grip even tighter. And it’s not only about power – the future of an entire generation is at stake.

Will Hungary have the strength to break this political circle? Will Tisza be the force that ends the era of authoritarianism? Will trust in Europe return and a choice will be made – finally not in favor of Moscow?

Tetyana Viktorova