IA “FACT” already wrote, that Europe is critically dependent on the US in the field of defense – from satellite reconnaissance and air defense to logistics and cyber warfare. Without American support, its military capabilities remain at the level of rhetoric. Despite the declaration of strategic autonomy, the EU has neither a unified weapons system nor the ability to rapidly produce projectiles. The military-industrial complex is fragmented and slow, unification is failing, and politicians are not ready for decisive action. If the US refuses to help, Europe will be left with paper armies and loud declarations without real protection.
“We have more refusers than volunteers”
Today, Europe is spending billions on defense, building new missile production lines, launching military funds and buying F-35s. But there is a foundation, without which all this is a dead iron. This is the personnel – and this is where the disaster is. The armies of Europe simply have no one to fight. Combat units are understaffed, there is no reserve, and motivation is falling. No drone, no Leopard, and no Storm Shadow missile will cover the personnel collapse. Because the weapon itself does not shoot.
There is an army in Great Britain decreased up to 73 thousand – this is the lowest figure since the 18th century. And even these forces are understaffed. In 2023, despite large-scale campaigns, bonuses and advertising, the country was unable to fulfill the recruitment plan. Not even Prince Harry, who served in Afghanistan, can inspire a generation that lives on TikTok. The army has lost touch with the youth.
In Germany, the situation is even worse. Bundeswehr had the goal is to increase the number to 203 thousand. In 2023 became the failure of this plan is understandable. The number of those willing to serve is decreasing, the number of suitable ones is even higher. In the medical commissions, more than 40% are screened out due to physical unfitness, chronic diseases, and psychological instability. The media quote the report of the Bundestag: “We have more refusers than volunteers”
The problem is not only in quantity, but also in quality. The young generation is simply not ready for service. Generation Z – digital, individualistic, post-industrial youth. They don’t want to go to the office, unlike the barracks. The idea of orders, physical discipline, restrictions does not appeal to them. The former commander of the British army, General Sanders, bluntly said: “We have a generation that does not know what service is. And we have to prepare for war without them.”
Physical incapacity is another hole. Almost half of British army candidates fail basic tests because they are overweight, have heart problems or are not physically fit. The picture is the same in Germany. In France, there is a constant reduction of the eligible contingent. This is not just a problem – it is a verdict for military strategy.
What do governments do? Part are invited foreigners In the British army, more than 10% are not citizens of Great Britain: Fijians, Gurkhas, representatives of the Commonwealth of Nations. In France, there is a full-fledged Foreign Legion, which maintains the combat capability of entire units. But this is a patching of holes, not a solution. Because an army that is not able to motivate its citizens is doomed to gradual extinction.
Why is the draft not returned? Because politicians are afraid of the rating. No one wants to say honestly: without the obligation to serve, the state will not survive. While Sweden has already returned the draft, most EU countries are paralyzed. Talking about “defense mobilization” is taboo. Meanwhile, new brigades are lining up in Russia.
Europe can spend hundreds of billions on tanks, drones, and missiles. But without a soldier – it’s just scrap metal. Each Leopard without a crew is a museum exhibit. Each drone without an operator is a box. Every gun without a charger is a pipe.
While the EU is losing its citizens as recruits, Ukraine is sending new people on rotation every day. And this is the difference in realities: in one war, in the other – fear of reality. If Europe does not launch a new paradigm for arming its armies, if it does not change its attitude to service, if it does not recognize that war is not only a technology, but also a human will, then it is not ready. And then no union, no budget, no plan will save the continent. Because in war it is not paper that decides, but a man with a machine gun.
Europe Without a Shield: How Rearmament Rhetoric Crashed Against Fear, Bureaucracy and Convenience
After February 24, 2022, all of Europe started talking about a new security policy. In Berlin, Chancellor Scholz solemnly proclaimed the Zeitenwende from the rostrum of the Bundestag – a historic turning point that was supposed to put an end to pacifism and return Germany to strength. In Paris, Macron spoke about strategic autonomy and rearmament. Defense funds, new initiatives, joint procurement schemes were launched in Brussels. But two years passed, and all this rhetoric crashed against the concrete of bureaucracy, fear and political convenience. Because the will to rearmament in Europe is a fake created for internal use.
Germany is the largest economy of the EU, a country with access to technology and resources. Berlin in March 2022 announced creation of a special fund of 100 billion euros for the modernization of the Bundeswehr. But in 2024, Scholz could not answer where this money went. Because part is closed under old obligations, part is stuck in tenders, and new purchases are still at the approval stage.
France is a nuclear power, a global army, a military-industrial giant with a new defense budget in 413 billion euros by 2030. But 2/3 of these funds will go not to new tanks or missiles, but to maintaining the fleet, bases, launching satellites, and developing cyber structures. The rearmament of the ground forces is still in the shadows. And all this against the backdrop of stagnation in defense supplies to Ukraine. Because France keeps defense spending at the level of 1.9% of GDP – without a breakthrough.
Italy is the third economy of the EU with a defense budget of 1.5% of GDP. Rome supports NATO, participates in missions, but the army is worn out, the navy is aging, combat aircraft are in short supply. Maloney’s government does the appearance that reforms are underway, but the parliament blocks key purchases. Public opinion is anti-defense, and the government knows it.
Spain is even worse. Government promises to reach 2%. Prime Minister Sanchez said bluntly: “we will not cut a single euro of social security for the sake of the army”. And the realities – minimal purchases, zero strategic thinking, fear of telling the voter the truth.
Poland is the only country that does not speak, but acts. In 2023, 4% of GDP will be allocated to defense – the largest figure in NATO. Purchasing K2 and K9 in South Korea. HIMARS, Abrams, F-35, Patriot – instant contracts. Creation of military infrastructure on the border with Belarus, large-scale reform of the Armed Forces, reserves, instructors, cadets. Warsaw is not afraid of the word “war”. Warsaw is building an army. And the rest is played in exhibitions at Eurosatory.
What prevents others? First, fear of voters. There was no war in Europe for 80 years. People don’t want to hear about tanks. They want subsidies, pensions, “green transition”. And politicians know it. Secondly, bureaucracy. In the EU, defense procurement goes through the 7 circles of hell: tenders, discussions, inspections, environmental assessments, anti-corruption barriers. The war will not wait. But in Europe – the time of the “process”, not the result.
Thirdly, there is a lack of leadership, a single decision-making center. NATO is a platform, but it is not effective without the US. The EU is a coalition of national egoisms: everyone pulls the blanket over themselves. Everyone wants to have his own factory, his own tank, his own weapon. Joint defense is only on paper. but in reality competition, fragmentation, delays.
The bottom line is: Europe has money and technology. But there is no will. Because politicians are afraid to tell the truth, procurement systems work in the logic of peacetime, citizens do not understand that if there are no tanks, there will be no schools, hospitals, and subsidies. Because Putin will come and take everything. And while Poland has already stood up in a combat stance, others are pondering, wasting time.
The strategic autonomy of the EU: a myth for voters, not a plan for war
Europe’s strategic autonomy in defense is one of the biggest myths that the European Union has been selling to itself for over ten years. It sounds decisive: the EU must be able to act independently, without the US, to protect its interests, deploy troops, conduct operations. But in practice, this is political rhetoric, behind which there is neither an army, nor a command, nor combat-ready forces. If tomorrow there is a war without the participation of the USA, Europe will not be able to conduct even an average military operation without a complete collapse of the logistics and command vertical.
After 2022, the EU created Rapid Deployment Capacity – a project of a combat group for 5 thousand soldiers, which should quickly respond to crises. It was supposed to be an alternative to NATO forces. But still this group exists only on paper. This is a repeat of the failure with EU Battlegroups, which have never been used since 2007. And this admits the European Commission itself: the project cannot operate without the political decision of all countries.
The European Defense Fund, established in 2021, has a budget of 8 billion euros until 2027. But this is money for R&D, not for the actual deployment of the army. The fund finances projects in the production of drones, communication systems, and cyber security. But while the US is supplying missiles, the EU is testing prototypes. And none of them will be ready by 2027.
There is more PEACH, the so-called “Permanent structured cooperation” of EU countries in the field of defense, which includes more than 60 projects. But they are decentralized. Someone develops radars, someone – armored personnel carriers, someone – logistics hubs. This is chaos without a combat result.
European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and the EDIRPA joint procurement mechanism is also in the process of being created. But still no joint arms tender has been held within the framework of these instruments. Countries continue to buy everything themselves. Because everyone pulls on themselves: their own tank, their own drone, their own air defense.
And most importantly: the idea of autonomy is doomed, because there is no unity in Europe. The EU still does not have any common air defense system, operational command, or strategic aviation. Strategic autonomy is not a concept, but complacency. It is needed only for internal consumption to convince the voter that we are doing something. And in fact, nothing. Because there is no political center, will and real forces. The EU wants to be an army. But for now he is only a secretariat that writes strategic compasses. And every such compass leads nowhere.
Tetyana Viktorova
