On September 30, 1938, Neville Chamberlain returned to London, holding a document signed by Hitler. “I have brought you peace for our time“, he told the crowd. Within a year, Nazi tanks were already rolling through Europe, and the very policy of “pacification” went down in history as a shameful failure.
The Munich Agreement of 1938 is the historical parallel with the present that appears most often in the posts of political scientists, military experts, and ordinary users. In the words of Ukrainians, there is pain and bitter irony: but this is definitely not about today, right? This is not at all similar to Trump’s phone conversations with Putin, to statements about the “necessity of compromises”, to a conspiracy behind closed doors, where the future of Ukraine is decided without Ukraine? Are we wrong in our assessments and parallels? Do we just think the dictator is getting another chance to gain power while the world looks away?
About Ukraine without Ukraine
Ukraine has entered a zone of intense turbulence. Yesterday it became clear that Trump has already agreed on many things with Putin. It seems that the telephone conversations lasted more than one evening, because the content of the agreements from “the other side” is written in detail and balanced. You can’t write everything down so clearly in an hour’s conversation. And Trump himself somehow already talked about talks with Putin. So the time has come to publicize what was said with the Russian dictator. That is precisely why the American president decided to acquaint President Zelensky with the content of the peace agreement, at least with its main provisions. The rest, as Trump made clear, will be presented to the Ukrainian president in Munich at a security conference. Vice President J.D. Vance and other representatives of the Trump administration will announce the “Just Peace Plan” that Ukraine should adopt.
What will happen if Ukraine does not agree? Trump’s response was unequivocal: “They may agree, or they may not. They may one day be part of Russia, or they may not be…In other words: either Ukraine accepts the ultimatum, or the consequences will be catastrophic.
It is already clear that according to the “peace plan” Ukraine should stop joining NATO. Trump seems to have only agreed on this issue with the position of the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. And also confirmed his words about the impossibility of returning Ukraine to the borders of 2014. At the same time, there were speculations that Putin would cede some territories, possibly districts of those regions, which he wrote into the Russian constitution. At the same time, there is no question of exchange for the territory of Kurshchyna. The Russians are confident that they can free her by military means. It is currently unknown what will happen with the sanctions against Russia. Clarity is likely to be made during the Munich conference.
At the same time, it is quite clear that Trump has already taken care of the payment for his services and all the past and future aid that the US will provide to Ukraine. He seconded US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant to Kyiv to meet with President Zelensky and conclude an agreement to ensure US access to rare earth resources in exchange for military aid. He also confirmed that he had received Kyiv’s consent to conclude an “agreement” worth $500 billion.
How did they react in Europe?
German edition daily news writes that although Zelensky thanked Trump for his desire to create “real peace”, it is obvious that Ukraine’s position weakened significantly after this telephone conversation. And this deterioration of positions even before the start of negotiations, the publication calls “a free gift for Putin.”
Edition Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung offers hope for a definitive end to the war, not just a freeze on hostilities for the duration of Trump’s presidency. And at the same time, the title asks the question: “And what role does Kyiv play in this?” and thereby nullifies the subjectivity of Ukraine.
Journalist Spiegel Christian Ash, who has covered events in Ukraine for many years, notes that this call is an alarming signal for Kyiv. According to him, the Ukrainian authorities are most afraid that Trump will build closer contacts with Moscow than with Kyiv. At the same time, Trump himself presents the situation as if he is only a neutral mediator, and not the main ally of Ukraine in the confrontation with Putin.
For Europe, a key question now arises: is it possible to guarantee security without US military support? After all, without an adequate level of deterrence, there is a real threat that Russia will once again start a new stage of aggression. It is expected that this topic will be one of the central ones at the Munich Security Conference, which starts tomorrow.
French publication Le Mond informs, that Donald Trump initiated negotiations on peace in Ukraine together with Vladimir Putin, thereby endangering the unity of the allies. Without coordinating his actions with European leaders, Trump had a long conversation with the head of the Kremlin.
France Inter reminds that Trump has been fascinated by Putin for a long time, so he can be influenced by him. Journalists are concerned about the question: will Ukraine be a full-fledged player in the negotiations or just an object?
The so-called “German scenario” is also mentioned, which is gaining popularity in the evaluations and comments of political scientists: the actual division of Ukraine into two parts, similar to the division of Germany into East and West after the Second World War. In theory, this should be a temporary solution until “better times” when unification is possible, as happened in Germany after the end of the Cold War. This is a huge concession for Kyiv, France Inter notes.
The main question is how to guarantee Ukraine’s security in this case? One of the Ukrainian officials noted that there are only two real guarantees: nuclear weapons and NATO membership. However, in the event of an armistice, Ukraine will receive neither the first nor the second. Therefore, it is necessary to find another mechanism that would deter Russia from a new invasion.
Agency Reuters wrote that the US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made one of the most frank statements of the new US administration about the war, saying that Kyiv should not expect either to return to the borders of 2014 or to join NATO. At a meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, he stressed that attempts to achieve this goal would only prolong the conflict and bring more suffering.
At the same time, Hegset noted that any long-term peace agreement must include reliable security guarantees to prevent a new Russian attack. However, the US will not station its troops in Ukraine within the limits of these guarantees.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is trying to find ways to retain support from the Trump administration. In particular, he proposed an agreement under which the US could invest in Ukrainian minerals. Finance Minister Scott Bessent, who visited Kyiv as the first representative of Trump’s cabinet, said that such economic cooperation could become a “safety shield” for Ukraine after the war.
Europeans insist on participating in peace talks
According to the message The Guardian, European countries, including Britain, France and Germany, have said they must participate in any talks on Ukraine, stressing that only an agreement with reliable security guarantees will ensure lasting peace. The joint statement of seven European states and the European Commission states that Ukraine should be in a position of strength during the negotiations.
The statement came after Donald Trump announced his conversation with Vladimir Putin and their readiness for immediate talks to end the war. The development has raised concerns in Europe as Trump and Putin appear to be discussing the future of the continent’s security, bypassing European leaders.
“Europe tells Trump: do not exclude Ukraine from peace talks”, – with such a title, the publication published an article Political, dedicated to the conversation between Trump and Putin. European diplomats emphasized that the negotiations, which can determine the future of Eastern Europe, should take place with the participation of Ukraine. This was their response to Donald Trump’s statement about an agreement with Vladimir Putin regarding negotiations.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock told POLITICO that achieving peace is possible only with the participation of Ukraine and European countries. She was supported by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, Baiba Braje, who emphasized the importance of Kyiv’s role in any peace negotiations.
Edition ABC News reported that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius criticized Donald Trump for premature concessions to Moscow, calling them “sad”. He believes that the Trump administration gave in to Putin even before the negotiations began. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur supported this position, stressing that Russia should not be given any advantages in advance.
Consequently, US President Donald Trump initiated direct negotiations with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, without involving European allies in the process. The proposed peace plan envisages Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO and return to the 2014 borders. European countries insist on Ukraine’s participation in the negotiations and demand reliable security guarantees for it. Meanwhile, Trump offers economic cooperation with Ukraine, which involves the exchange of natural resources for support. European diplomats express concern that the future of Ukraine can be decided without its participation.
If history teaches anything, it teaches only those who actually read it. And the question is not what will be written in the future textbook, but whether in a year or two we will not have to admit: “We were wrong again“.
