According to the most pessimistic estimates, in 2025 the grain harvest in Ukraine may decrease by 10% — to approximately 51 million tons compared to 56.7 million tons in 2024. Such a forecast was announced by the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Vitaliy Koval. informs Reuters.
“We have a difficult season ahead of us. An abnormally warm winter, at first there was no humidity, then long rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a reduction in the harvest. The most negative forecast is minus 10%. According to expectations, the grain harvest is minus 10%, the oilseed crop is minus 5%. It’s definitely not a failure, but God willing, we’ll pull it all together.” Koval said.
Military threats posed by Russia’s ongoing invasion are also having a negative impact on production, with many farmers afraid or unable to plant and harvest crops. In addition, significant territories were under occupation or were mined.
Presenting the first detailed forecast, the minister said that in 2025, Ukraine can harvest approximately 26 million tons of corn, 4.5 million tons of barley, 1.5 million tons of other cereals, 11.5 million tons of sunflower seeds, and 11 million tons of sugar beets. As for wheat, its harvest, according to Koval, can be from 20 to 22 million tons.
“The total harvest of oil crops in 2025 may decrease to approximately 20.16 million tons from 21.18 million tons a year earlier, partly due to a decrease in the rape crop by 600,000 tons. tons”, – added the minister.
At the same time, Vitaliy Koval refrained from providing a forecast for grain exports for the 2025/26 marketing year, referring to the fact that the final harvest indicators still remain uncertain.
