“The population of such a city as Zhytomyr disappears every year”: Vasyl Voskoboynik on the demographic crisis and the attraction of migrants from third world countries

Ukraine and the demographic crisis: will labor migrants save the situation?

Ukraine is experiencing one of the deepest demographic crises in its history. The population is declining at an accelerated rate, caused by a number of factors: high mortality, low birth rates, mass emigration, and the effects of war. Every year, there are fewer and fewer Ukrainians, and the working population is decreasing so fast that the country’s economy is already experiencing an acute labor shortage.

Politicians and experts are increasingly discussing the need to attract labor migrants from third world countries as one of the possible solutions to the problem. The experience of developed countries shows that immigration can partially compensate for population decline, but how suitable is this strategy for Ukraine? Is society ready to accept migrants from other cultures, and what risks might arise?

President of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies Vasyl Voskoboynyk believesthat the problem of labor shortage in the country is becoming critical. According to him, every year the population of Ukraine decreases by 250-300 thousand people, which is equivalent to the disappearance of an entire city, such as Zhytomyr. This leads to an aging nation and an imbalance in the labor market, as the number of citizens retiring exceeds the number of young people entering the working age.

“First of all, this problem is based on the fact that we have a demographic catastrophe – every year the number of deaths exceeds the number of births by 250,000-300,000 people. Relatively speaking, a city like Zhytomyr disappears every year. And it is clear that in such conditions, when the population is aging, when more people leave the labor market than enter this market, it is necessary to somehow balance it all. Or offer our women to give birth to 5-7 children each, and somewhere in 18-20 years we will have an additional number of people who will be able to enter the labor market. Or be realistic and look for opportunities to attract labor migrants from other countries.” – the expert believes.

Voskoboynyk emphasizes that in such conditions Ukraine has two ways: or create conditions for a significant increase in the birth rate (which is a long-term strategy), or start actively attracting labor migrants from other countries. He notes that business is already experiencing an acute labor shortage, and unless action is taken, the situation will only worsen after the end of the war. According to experts, Ukraine needs more than 8 million workers to compensate for the shortage of personnel.

Regarding the sources of potential labor migration, Voskoboynyk emphasizes that it is worth focusing on countries with a lower standard of living than in Ukraine. These include, in particular, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the countries of North Africa and Central Asia. However, attracting migrants is not an easy task. Even if Ukraine is interested in attracting labor from these regions, it is not a fact that foreign citizens will agree to move en masse. For this, the country needs to create attractive working conditions, competitive wages and comfortable social conditions for life.

“If in Ukraine, as of now, the minimum salary reaches 8,000 hryvnias, and in neighboring Poland – already 47,000 hryvnias, if the average salary in Ukraine is about 20,000 hryvnias, and in Poland – 72,000 hryvnias, then it is clear that it is unlikely that Poles, Czechs, Hungarians or Germans will come to work here.

Most likely, we will invite people from countries where the standard of living is lower or even much lower than in Ukraine. Therefore, it is really necessary to consider such countries as Bangladesh, Nepal, India, countries of North Africa, Central Asia, which were once part of the USSR. But the fact that we want to bring people from there does not mean that these people will necessarily want to come to us in such numbers to close our demographic gaps.” – noted the expert.

The expert emphasizes that the return of Ukrainians who went abroad and the reduction of labor migration from Ukraine are among the key questions that need to be answered. Conditions for doing business, the level of security, social security – all this affects the decision of citizens to stay in the country or leave. If the situation in Ukraine does not change, the risk of losing skilled labor will remain very high.

Separately, Voskoboynyk emphasizes the importance of creating clear rules for attracting foreign workers. He believes that the state should develop an effective migration policy, which will provide for a simplified employment procedure for foreigners and a clear control system. In particular, we are talking about the automatic granting of a residence permit together with a work permit, which will greatly simplify the process of adaptation of labor migrants.

However, attracting labor from abroad is not a cheap process. Voskoboynyk explains that companies that invite foreign workers are forced to cover the costs of their relocation, housing, adaptation and training. In case of unsuccessful employment or insufficient motivation of employees, the company suffers financial losses. He notes that not all migrant workers stay at the places of work offered to them – some use employment in Ukraine as a transit stage to further move to European countries with higher wages.

It is necessary to clearly understand and convey to everyone – to business, citizens, authorities – the main thesis: attracting labor migrants will be more expensive for Ukrainian employers both in the short-term and in the long-term than preserving their own labor potential.

“We’ve all heard the story that they want to bring people from Bangladesh to a furniture manufacturing enterprise in Western Ukraine. I’ve read discussions about this, and people don’t understand a simple thing: in order to bring people from Bangladesh, they need to be interested in working in Ukraine, in our wages. These people need to be brought here in some way, and perhaps they need to be provided with accommodation, because they need to be provided with translators, it is unlikely that they know the Ukrainian language will they be able to work here at all, because a separate enterprise will not be able to conduct exams for these people in the countries where they are located.

And if the employer wants to bring in, for example, 160 people, I have no confidence that all 160 people will work. Some of them simply will not be able to adapt and will leave the country. Some people may consider working at this company as a kind of bridge to Europe, where wages are much higher. And someone may really want to work, they will like Ukraine, but they will not like this particular enterprise and will go to work elsewhere. But all these expenses – for adaptation, for travel, for providing housing – will be borne by the employer in full.” – believes Voskoboynyk.

The expert emphasizes that the state should not interfere in the issue of placement and provision of housing for foreign workers, as even internally displaced persons in Ukraine still do not have sufficient support in this matter. At the same time, the state must ensure control over migration processes and prevent the creation of ethnic enclaves, which can lead to social conflicts.

Voskoboynyk also emphasizes that attracting labor migrants is not the only solution to the problem of labor shortage. Ukraine needs to intensify the involvement of women in the labor market, consider the possibilities of involving older people and create conditions for longer professional activity. However, given the pace of depopulation, even these measures can only temporarily postpone the problem, not solve it.

“One of the elements of solving the problem of labor shortage, which is being discussed, is the involvement of women in one or another type of work, the involvement of older people – that is, not raising the retirement age, but offering older people to work longer. But everything rests on one figure – 250-300 thousand people leave this world every year, and even if we can postpone the problem with our own resources, we will postpone it for 5-7 years, and then we will face the fact that there will be a shortage of workers, taxpayers, consumers of goods and services produced in Ukraine,” – noted Voskoboynyk.

Finally, the expert notes that in order for Ukraine to become attractive for migrants, it is necessary to fundamentally change the economic and social situation in the country. If the state becomes more open, liberal and comfortable for doing business, it will contribute not only to the attraction of labor migrants, but also to the return of Ukrainians who have gone abroad. Otherwise, Ukraine will continue to lose qualified personnel and find itself in an even deeper demographic crisis.

“All that the state should do is to create conditions so that national enclaves or ghettos do not appear in us, to implement a policy of socialization of people and actually create conditions so that people who came to work really work. That is, there should be interaction: business – state – migration service. If this is not done, the situation on the labor market in Ukraine will only worsen, and the competition for labor between countries will only grow.” – summarized Voskoboynyk.