Turkey on the verge of dictatorship: the arrest of Erdogan’s opponent triggered a political and economic collapse (continued)

The recent arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu pond a point of no return for Turkey. Erdogan’s main opponent was arrested on trumped-up charges of corruption and “connections with terrorists” – a classic of the authoritarian genre. Everything is played out ostentatiously and cynically: the arrest happened precisely on the eve of his nomination as a presidential candidate.

The streets of Istanbul exploded with protests. People again chanted slogans of Gezi Park: “Don’t be afraid, we are human“. Not only supporters of the Republican People’s Party joined the game, but also young people, lawyers, students, officials. They take risks, because they understand: it is no longer about Imamoglu, but about whether even a shadow of democracy will survive in the country.

The authorities operate according to the old scheme – arrests, intimidation, informational cleansing. But fear no longer works. Imamoglu has become a symbol of resistance, and Turkey is rapidly rolling towards Erdogan’s personal fiefdom.

Imamoglu’s arrest as a point of no return: the West sees a new autocracy in Turkey

The international reaction to Imamoglu’s arrest is indicative. The sunset is wonderful understandsthat there is a political purge before the presidential elections. Everyone has already observed a similar scenario in Russia and Belarus – and now Turkey is following suit.

European diplomats emphasize, that the arrest of Imamoglu directly contradicts the Copenhagen criteria, without which Turkey cannot see even a ghostly movement towards EU membership. And this story will definitely affect the negotiations on the customs union and European programs.

The US State Department was also not silent – Ankara clearly indicated the need to adhere to democratic standards and stop politically motivated persecution.

Sanctions may be imposed, because the West sees danger not only for Turkey, but also for NATO. The arrest of Imamoglu directly hits the foundation – can a country heading for dictatorship be an ally?

Ambassadors of NATO countries already are discussing risks of political destabilization in Turkey. After all, this is not just an internal matter, this is a country with the second largest army of the Alliance and control over the Black Sea Straits.

If Erdogan presses and imprisons Imamoglu, the consequences will be clear: from the freezing of cooperation programs to personal sanctions against the Turkish officials who organized this case.

Turkey is on the brink of financial collapse

The arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu was not only a political blow, but also a trigger for a serious economic crisis that is already getting out of control. The Turkish economy has been teetering on the brink for a long time, and this incident simply blew the fuse.

Fall lira by 12.7% in a few hours means a blow to all sectors of the economy. The dollar broke the psychologically important mark of 42 lira for the first time. This means a sharp increase in the price of all imports: from energy to basic products, as Turkey is critically dependent on imported gas, oil, raw materials and equipment. In just a few weeks, this will inevitably turn into a new wave of inflation, which is already skyrocketing – officially over 65%, but in reality even higher.

The collapse of the stock index by 9% and the loss of the banking sector of more than 7% of capitalization is a wake-up call for all foreign investors. Money began to flee the country. And here the problem is not even direct losses of the stock exchange or banks. This is the start of a domino effect – investors withdraw money, businesses cancel projects, companies postpone or cancel investment plans. Risks have become uncontrollable, because no one understands what will happen tomorrow – new arrests, a state of emergency or simply a market crash.

Central Bank raised the discount rate is unprecedentedly high – up to 46%. This means that it will become almost impossible to take loans in the country. The business will remain without access to financing. Small and medium-sized businesses will simply stop. Bankruptcies will increase, unemployment will increase sharply.

At the same time, the state will lose control over debts. Turkey already lives on loans from the West and China. But now we will have to borrow at exorbitant interest rates or not borrow at all, because investors are not ready to invest money in a country that has slipped into manual governance and political repression.

If the situation does not change, the exchange rate of 50 lira to the dollar is a very real scenario by the end of the year. It will mean a full-scale economic crisis: devaluation of salaries and pensions, shortage of imported goods, queues for basic products, deployment of shadow economy.

In parallel, political radicalization will follow. Because in conditions of economic collapse and a police state, protest will become not just a moral, but a physical issue of survival for millions. Turkey finds itself on the edge of a classic authoritarian economic model, when all power rests exclusively on power, and the economy turns into ruins.

Kremlin tracing paper: Turkey is collapsing democracy according to the Russian scenario

The arrest of Imamoglu is another step in the systemic collapse of democracy in Turkey. Erdogan has long and consistently destroyed political competition, turning the country into a one-man fiefdom. The scheme is clear: the persecution of the opposition, the media and the Kurds is all in the Kremlin’s footsteps.

In February, the Turkish police spent mass raids: 282 people were detained, including journalists and politicians. The wording is standard: “connections with terrorists” means the Workers’ Party of Kurdistan, with which the authorities list all those who do not bow as accomplices.

Next – freedom of speech. Last year condemned A 71-year-old woman for reposting The Guardian’s material about a British woman who died next to Kurdish units in Syria. She was charged with “terrorist propaganda”. This is no longer a hint, but a clear signal that repression will affect everyone.

Kurds are a separate topic. Kurdish mayors are removed en masse. In February, the authorities removed the mayor of the city of Van. The standard accusation is “connections with the PKK”. In place of the chosen ones are coming protégés of the government. This is a direct destruction of local self-government. Now it’s Imamoglu’s turn, who has become a real threat to Erdogan personally. Clean without unnecessary ceremonies. Because it is already clear – the government will not allow elections that it can lose.

It is obvious that Turkey is moving towards a full-fledged model of one-man rule. When elections, courts, media are just decorations. Erdogan clears the field to zero.

Turkey faces the last choice: either struggle or dictatorship

The situation surrounding Imamoglu is not a question of the personal fate of one politician, but a test of the ability of the Turkish opposition to survive and fight the regime.

Will Imamoglu be jailed? Yes, they can plant. The formula is simple: a conviction for “terrorism” or “corruption” removes Imamoglu from the game.  Imamoglu is not just popular, he is the only one who is real threatens Erdogan in the elections. His arrest is an attempt to remove a rival even before the start of the presidential campaign.

Erdogan has already publicly stated that he wants to stay after 2028. According to the constitution, he has only two terms. The way out can be either early elections (this resets the “terms” counter) or changes to the constitution.

The opposition is waiting for this maneuver. But so far the initiative belongs to Erdogan. He plays for promotion – throws away the main card and prepares to clean the political field bare.

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel he says directly:  “They can remove Imamoglu, but that will only give us strengthEven if Imamoglu is jailed or banned from running, the opposition will nominate a new candidate and go all the way.

But is there even a little chance left at all? After the failure in the 2023 elections, the opposition is demoralized, fragmented, and confused. The only one who could unite it is Imamoglu. That is why a blow was struck at him, at the very heart of the resistance camp.

Erdogan pulled the trigger on the final seizure of power. Imamoglu is only the first major victim on this path. What’s next? Early elections, which he will completely adjust to himself? Is there a new constitution that will “reset” everything and everyone?

But is it now a matter for the opposition? The question is another – does Turkey have even a ghostly chance to get off this trajectory? Is the country ready for the last attempt – immediate mobilization, mass street protests, direct struggle? Because otherwise – everything. Then there is only an indefinite regime of personal power. And there will be no way back.

Tetyana Viktorova