TV series instead of real reforms: the government knows how to “raise” the birth rate in the state

Today, against the backdrop of the war, Ukraine is facing a demographic catastrophe. Daily losses, mass migration, social instability – all this destroys the foundations of society. In addition, the country’s birth rate is increasingly decreasing, mortality exceeds all acceptable limits, and large families struggle to survive without state support. In response to this, the government does not develop kindergartens, does not increase social benefits, does not improve medicine. Instead, they decided to… shoot TV series. Yes, now television heroes will fight with the fear of parenthood. And while young parents in real life are counting pennies to buy diapers, the screens will show perfect families happily giving birth to their fourth child. The state seems to live in a different reality – a cinema, where problems are solved by good lighting and professional make-up.

Demographic crisis in numbers

As informs Financial Times, the birth rate has more than halved rapidly in many countries. The average number of children per woman in the 38 most industrialized countries fell from 3.3 in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022.

And what to say about Ukraine, which is currently experiencing difficult times not only in terms of the economy, but also in all spheres of life.  In the conditions of a full-scale war, the birth rate in Ukraine fell sharply, deepening the demographic crisis, which has been intensifying for the past 10 years. As we can see, war was not the only cause of such a crisis situation. So, for example, the number of men aged 18 to 30 in Ukraine is very small, which is due to the low birth rate in the early 2000s. Before the full-scale invasion, we had 1.2 children per woman of childbearing age, after the start of the full-scale invasion – 0.9. This indicator is the third from the end in the world. It is clear that this situation has a direct negative impact on the mobilization resource and subsequent birth rate. In addition, it is impossible to calculate the number of dead at the front, which is constantly changing.

According to the Institute of Demography, 31 million people live in Ukraine today, 4.9 million have moved abroad, and about 5 million live in temporarily occupied territories.  Experts predict that by 2025, only 25 million people may remain in Ukraine.

State promises and harsh reality

According to Strategy demographic development of Ukraine until 2040 and the action plan for 2024–2027, the government identified several key areas of assistance to large families:

• increase in payments for children, one-time payments at birth, preferential loans for housing and even write-off of part of debts in case of the birth of a third or more child;
• creation of accessible kindergartens and schools, provision of free medical care and priority access to social services;
• provision of tax benefits for large families, preferential lending for young families, as well as development of support programs for working parents.

On paper, all these promises look very ambitious. But let’s recall the conditions that preceded the creation and development of this plan. Having promised Ukraine 50 billion euros, the European Union instead demanded the presentation of Ukraine’s plan for the demographic development strategy until 2040. This is how the hastily prepared action plan of the state was born. In practice, the implementation of these measures faces serious challenges. Experts note that previous similar programs have had low effectiveness due to insufficient funding, weak monitoring and enforcement. In wartime, these problems may deepen due to the economic crisis and increased population migration abroad. There are doubts whether the planned initiatives will be able to stimulate a significant increase in the birth rate, as they are often focused on short-term effects rather than long-term stability.

In an international context, interventions such as direct payments to families, subsidized housing or subsidies show better performance when integrated with broad public support, including quality education, health care and flexible employment programmes. Ukraine should adapt these approaches, taking into account its own characteristics and resource limitations. And here everything is more like the principle of “written and forgotten”. After all, there are simply no moves in the direction of solving the set goals.

In today’s reality, a large family is something of a miracle. After all, in the conditions of war, economic, political and social instability, crisis of family values, Ukrainian society increasingly associates motherhood not with a full-fledged happy life, but with serious losses: finances, prospects, career, free time. In a private conversation with “FACT” journalists, more and more mothers of many children mention how they are sneered at in every way, throwing unpleasant phrases like “they gave birth, but who will feed them?”. If someone with many children starts to complain about their difficult situation, instead of support, they will receive the question: “What were you thinking before when you gave birth?”. Should such an attitude be acceptable in a civilized society? But such a picture did not develop yesterday, and the state, which does not pay due attention to large families, played a significant role in this attitude of society.

Families with children face a lot of problems: it is often difficult for mothers with many children to find work, it is much more difficult for families with children to rent housing. In general, large families in Ukraine do not feel very comfortable: both morally and financially. Instead of support – rejections, instead of an effective state support program – meager funds. And this situation, despite any strategies and plans on the part of the state, has not changed for years.

In practice, families with many children are faced with a complicated procedure for applying for assistance. Documents are often lost, settling somewhere in officials’ offices, and payments are delayed due to lack of funds in local budgets. Families in frontline areas or internally displaced persons do not receive adequate support due to legal and logistical problems.

Decree Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 250 dated 13.02.2019 establishes the procedure for payment of benefits for children raised in large families. Paragraph 10 of this resolution, which was amended in accordance with CMU Resolution No. 118 of February 16, 2022, states that assistance is provided in the amount of 2,100 hryvnias. Economic instability once again emphasizes the inadequacy of cash payments. Inflation simply “eats up” the amount of payments. For example, the average benefit per child in 2024 is only a fraction of the real cost of child support, especially in the context of increased prices for food, clothing and medical services.

Where are the “strategic goals” leading us?

The Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine until 2040 and the Action Plan for 2024-2027 announced by the government is a document with beautiful slogans and loud statements. In six spheres, starting from the labor market and ending with the quality of life, strategic goals have been defined that should transform Ukraine into an ideal place for active longevity, birth of children and happy parenthood. It sounds enticing, but when it comes down to it, the strategy resembles the script of a cheap soap opera.

In the first paragraph of the document, the state outlined the creation of conditions for the voluntary return of Ukrainians from abroad and the reduction of population outflow from Ukraine. But at the same time, we have a picture of a lack of housing for internally displaced persons, meager assistance in the amount of UAH 2,000 per healthy adult and UAH 3,000 per person with a disability and one child. It is unlikely that under such conditions, our citizens who risked going abroad will be ready to return home, where they will have to fight with bureaucratic mechanisms to prove where they are from and who they are, and then drag out a miserable existence on the meager payments that the state already provides unable to find funds.

Surprisingly, the plan does not specify specific actions to help large families. Moreover, you will not find the term “large family” in this plan at all. Instead, the state set itself strategic goal number 2 – creating conditions for increasing the birth rate and supporting the family. And officials plan to implement it not through direct actions aimed at improving those who plan to become parents, as well as those who have already become parents, but through “the creation of TV series for young people that help reduce the fear of being bad parents, the fear of giving birth to children ( subject to the provision of appropriate content and information materials)”.

And here begins the most interesting. For this purpose, 6 tasks and 40 activities are planned, among which there is an absolutely innovative idea: the fight against negative narratives about parenthood through the creation of special series. Therefore, the Ministry of Culture and Strategic Communications should order “youth series” whose characters will inspire young people to reproduce. Such series should change citizens’ perceptions of motherhood and parenthood, reduce fear of children and lack of confidence in their ability to be good parents.

It is suggested that these characters are young, happy and surrounded by perfect children. Four children, a happy mother, a proud father — a classic image from a commercial. However, the question arises: is it possible to fight real problems with idealized fictions?

A few more questions should be asked here:

1. What is the price of these series? Creating high-quality content means millions of budgets. Are we willing to spend it on something that probably won’t have a direct effect on fertility?
2. Will these series be sincere? The audience feels fake. If the characters become caricatured “ideal” parents, it can only cause irritation.
3. Where are the solutions to real problems? Shortage of places in kindergartens, insufficient support for young families, low incomes – these are the things that prevent people from having children. Will this change the series?

Instead of wasting money on mythical scenarios, perhaps the government should focus on real change. For example:

• Creation of support programs for young parents.
• Providing an affordable and high-quality kindergarten for every family.
• Raising social standards that will allow people to confidently plan for the future.

It is surprising that the officials do not understand the fact that the fear of giving birth to children does not arise from an equal place, namely because of uncertainty that the family will receive real help. How can watching series help to cope with this fear? But, probably, it is simply necessary to create another department of the ministry, which will deal only with the creation of a type of activity and also receive a lot of money for it.

Support for large families abroad

In European countries, support programs for large families include not only financial payments, but also infrastructure support: access to free education, medicine, and long-term maternity leave for both parents. For example, in Hungary, a debt cancellation program for the birth of children is successfully operating, which stimulates the birth rate even in crisis conditions.​​​​ Government programs offer soft loans for families with many children, such as housing subsidies or loans that do not need to be repaid if additional children are born.​​​​

France is known for its comprehensive support for large families, the country offers monthly payments depending on the number of children, as well as significant tax discounts for families with three or more children.

Scandinavian countries such as Sweden, Norway, and Iceland provide long periods of paid maternity leave for both parents, allowing them to care for children without losing income. There is also access to subsidized kindergartens for children under the age of three​​.

In Germany, families have the right to free or subsidized preschool education. In addition, the state provides “Kindergeld” – monthly payments for each child.

The Japanese government provides significant support through childcare programs, including subsidized child care centers and newborn bonuses.​​​​

Some countries are introducing new initiatives to stimulate fertility. For example, in Italy there is a “Bonus Bebè” program, which includes a monthly allowance for children under the age of three for families with an average and low income.

To combat one of the world’s lowest birth rates, South Korea offers significant financial support, including health care and lump sum payments at the birth of a child.​​

As you can see, all of these examples demonstrate that effective policies include financial incentives, access to services for children, and support for work-family balance. However, even in rich countries, these programs sometimes fall short of their goals due to social and economic barriers.

Can Ukraine win the demographic war?

Today, state policy in Ukraine looks more declarative than effective. Ambitious promises do not become reality due to lack of funding, corruption and weak coordination between central and local authorities.

If the state really wants to change demographic trends, the government must ensure transparency of support mechanisms, simplify access to services and turn declarations into real actions. Otherwise, large families will remain not only a symbol of hope, but also an example of state irresponsibility at the most critical time for the country.

State promises to support large families remain a critically important element of Ukraine’s demographic recovery strategy. However, between ambitious statements and their implementation lies a chasm filled with bureaucratic obstacles, financial difficulties and military realities. Families, the bastions of hope for the future, are often left alone with challenges that force them to choose between survival and the birth of a new life.

The state must recognize that victory in the demographic war is impossible without real, transparent and effective support mechanisms. Promises must be transformed into concrete steps that people feel. Until this happens, large families will remain hostage to a war that is being waged not only on the front, but also in their hearts and homes.

If the government wants to use culture to promote family values, that’s great. But culture should inspire, not distract from real problems. Now, the creation of series looks like a desire to avoid difficult questions, replacing them with an attractive but empty picture. Because life is not a series, and problems need to be solved not with series with million budgets, but with real actions.