Ukrainians as a driver of economic growth in the EU: the unexpected effect of migration
When Russian forces launched a full-scale offensive against Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians were forced to flee their homes in search of safety abroad. The European Union became a refuge for many of them, but the consequences of this mass displacement were not limited to humanitarian aspects. As it turned out, Ukrainian refugees have become the driving force of economic growth in many European countries.
Unexpectedly for many, including analysts, their presence not only offset significant support costs, but also added new impetus to the development of European economies. This wave of migration, which would seem like a disaster, turned into a powerful stimulus for the countries receiving the refugees.
The mass migration of Ukrainians to the countries of the European Union, caused by the full-scale invasion of Russia, turned out to be unexpectedly beneficial for the economies of the host countries. Despite the significant costs of supporting refugees, which, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), amounted to 30-37 billion euros, Ukrainians significantly boosted economic activity in the EU. This is especially noticeable in countries where their presence is the largest, such as Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukrainians spend up to 2 billion dollars abroad every month, which flows into the EU economy through consumer spending, housing rent, banking transactions and legal employment with subsequent tax payments. Poland and Germany are the leaders in the volume of non-cash payments of Ukrainian refugees, which indicates a significant contribution to the economy of these countries.
The case of the Czech Republic, where almost 90% of able-bodied Ukrainians found work, is particularly interesting. This contributed to the fact that the revenues to the state budget from the activities of Ukrainian refugees already double the costs of their support.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates the additional contribution of Ukrainian refugees to the annual GDP growth of the Czech Republic, Poland and Estonia at the level of 1.2%, and for Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania – about 0.8%. Even in Great Britain this indicator reaches 0.2%.
Such data indicate that Ukrainian refugees have not become a burden for the EU economies, but on the contrary, actively contribute to their growth, compensating for the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation. Their contribution is reflected in the increase in demand for goods and services, the filling of vacancies in the labor market and the increase in tax revenues.
In addition, the migration of Ukrainians had a positive impact on the demographic situation in some EU countries, especially those facing problems of population aging. The influx of young and able-bodied Ukrainians helped to fill demographic gaps and maintain a stable level of employment.
Thus, the migration of Ukrainians to the European Union became not only a challenge, but also an opportunity for the economies of the countries receiving refugees, creating new prospects for their development.
