The deficit of rye in Ukraine in the 2025/2026 season will be 100%, which will inevitably cause an increase in the price of rye bread. About this stated Rodion Rybchynskyi, director of the “Four Mills of Ukraine” Union.
“We can say with certainty that there will be a 100% shortage of rye in the 2025/26 season. Polish rye is already partially processed in Ukraine, and bakers use Baltic rye flour. Unfortunately, this is already our reality.”, – said Rybchinskyi.
According to him, the main reason for this situation is the refusal of Ukrainian farmers to grow rye due to its lower yield compared to wheat: up to 40 centners per hectare compared to 60 for wheat. Previously, the deficit was covered by imports from Belarus, which caused a reduction in domestic production — it was difficult for Ukrainian manufacturers to compete with cheap imports. At the same time, rye is not a popular export crop, as demand for it is limited to the domestic market.
Rybchinsky emphasized that currently the prices of rye have increased significantly. If in 2024 a ton cost 6–7 thousand hryvnias, then in May 2025 the price increased to 12–14 thousand hryvnias.
“Currently, the price of Ukrainian rye flour is UAH 18,000 per ton, from imported raw materials it is about UAH 20,000, while last year in May rye flour cost UAH 10,000. It will not just be an increase in the price of rye bread – many manufacturers of bakery products will simply stop baking it.” – he emphasized.
The head of the union also predicted that throughout the entire 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine will be forced to purchase rye at European prices. This, in his opinion, will make the culture more attractive to domestic farmers, and already in the 2026/2027 season, they can expand the area under its sowing, which will stabilize the situation on the market.
